Wednesday, May 13, 2026

More capitalist countries have lower income inequality

Tweet from Vlad Tarko

"More capitalist countries have lower income inequality, not higher. High income inequality is caused by cronyism which goes hand in hand with highly regulated markets. Welfare states also lower inequality, but you need free markets wealth to have generous welfare states."

 

"You can't derive causality from raw data. Those scatter plots are just a description of reality. If your causal picture of the world makes you expect the opposite patterns, you should re-evaluate. The cronyism comment is an alternate causal theory that fits the pattern.

In any case, if you think I'm deriving my whole world view from a few scatter plots, that's a very uncharitable interpretation. No, that's not what I'm doing. While, yes, empirical evidence is very important. Too many people have theories that are intuitive but flat out wrong.

The correlations on the upper-left and lower-right are actually quite strong. The other two less so, which further enhances the point! 1 Size of govt weakly correlated with equality, unless in rich country. 2 Even in rich countries, capitalism doesn't increase inequality."   

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