Now Trump Wants an Export Tax

Want a license to sell chips to China? Better pay the man.

WSJ editorial. Excerpts:

"In any case, this is an export tax that Congress didn’t authorize. Will AMD or Nvidia challenge the political extortion in court? Selling chips in China may be more important to them than defending the legal principle that the government can’t willy-nilly shake down companies.

There’s a reasonable argument that AI chip restrictions haven’t been effective. The Biden team imposed restrictions on AI chip exports to China in 2022, but Nvidia then developed lower-power AI chips to get around them. The Chinese have also smuggled AI chips and built the advanced large-language model DeepSeek with computational workarounds."

"Relaxing its curbs in exchange for trade concessions from China and payments from chip makers suggests the Administration’s real priority is deal-making in pursuit of more revenue." 

 

All E.J. Antoni’s Labor Statistics

Does Trump’s nominee for BLS have a plan to make data more reliable?

WSJ editorial. Excerpts:

"The response rate for the BLS establishment survey, which is used for the monthly jobs report, has fallen to 43% from 61% over the last decade. Response rates for the household survey that feeds into the unemployment and labor force participation rates have declined to 68% from 88%. Inflation reports may also be affected by falling response rates in calculating shelter prices (14 percentage-point decline over a decade) and weights for items in the consumer price index (28 point decline)."

"Another risk is that survey responders may not be representative. Small businesses are typically less likely and later to respond, so initial monthly jobs reports may not reflect changes in their hiring and layoffs."

"Another problem: A funding shortage has caused BLS to stop collecting some granular data that can illuminate economic changes."

"Criticizing the BLS as Mr. Antoni has from the back benches is easy, but what is his plan to make the data more reliable?" 

The Trump Economy Stumbles

The President has his new world tariff order in place, but jobs and growth don’t look so good

WSJ editorial. Excerpts:

"Friday’s labor report arrived with a particular jolt, with a mere 73,000 net new jobs in July. Even more bearish were the downward revisions of 258,000 jobs in May and June. Job gains over the last three months are barely more than 100,000."

"The labor participation rate fell again to 62.2% and is now down half a percentage point in a year."

"Employers . . . have all but stopped new hiring."

"most of the new jobs are in healthcare and social assistance"

"The economy shed 11,000 manufacturing jobs in July, following a loss of 26,000 in May and June."

"it has occurred in the wake of Mr. Trump’s April 2 tariff shock"

"The policy uncertainty has surely affected business hiring and investment."

"But the tariff tax increase in dollar terms at Mr. Trump’s current rates will be close to $360 billion a year. That’s among the largest tax increases in recent history." 

Trump Claims the Jobs Report Was Rigged. Was It?

He does himself and his party no favors by waving away economic reality—as Biden did with inflation

By Allysia Finley. Excerpts:

"Mr. Trump sniffs a deep-state conspiracy. “Today’s Jobs Numbers were RIGGED in order to make the Republicans, and ME, look bad,” the president huffed on Truth Social. Where’s the evidence? There is none." 

"the Senate confirmed Ms. McEntarfer 86-8 last year." [Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer]

"the jobs numbers have become more volatile in recent years because of declining business survey response rates."

"The bureau surveys some 631,000 workplaces by a variety of media, including phone, web and even fax. Many businesses don’t respond every month, but the BLS continues to collect data and revise its findings over the next two months."

"The survey’s overall response rate has declined to 43% from 60% before the pandemic"

"The jobs estimate can also be off in either direction by 136,000 in any given month because of statistical chance. Such variations tend to even out over several months."

"the bureau last August revised its job estimates down by 818,000 over the 12 months that ended in March 2024. If Ms. McEntarfer were trying to help Kamala Harris, why would she have done this before the election?"