When you get the facts and the theory wrong, bad policy conclusions are likely to follow.
By Brian Albrecht. Excerpts:
"UK Member of Parliament (former Conservative Party Cabinet Minister) Kit Malthouse published an essay in CapX earlier this month titled “We need a competition revolution.”"
"Malthouse paints a dire picture of rampant monopolization across
British industries: “we see the same pattern: a handful of dominant
firms controlling vast swathes of the economy, shutting out competition
and stifling innovation.”
Malthouse’s argument suffers from two
fundamental problems: it is wrong on the evidence, and it is wrong on
the economy theory."
"the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), the most comprehensive
measure of market concentration, has barely changed over the last 25
years. It increased slightly from around 1,100 in 1997 to 1,300 during
its peak, before falling back to just above 1,100 by 2022."
"The timing matters: “Across a range of measures, concentration increased
during the mid-late 2000s, then fell slightly. The latest data (2022)
shows that it stands at similar levels to 1997.” The dates are worth
noting, as the UK productivity slowdown (as in the United States)
started around 2006. Thus, concentration has been falling during the
productivity slowdown that is plaguing the country."
"The mean-concentration ratio of the top five UK firms only increased
from 43% to 47% over the last quarter century—hardly the dramatic
consolidation that Malthouse describes."
"You could say that 43% was still problematic, and the economy suffered
from the same problem in 1997. Unfortunately, that would mean that none
of Malthouse’s explanations work. His entire essay frames market
concentration as a recent and worsening crisis"
"if concentration levels in 2022 are virtually identical to 1997, then
this narrative of recent capture by “corporate titans” and his
historical arc of declining competition collapses. The problem either
existed in the late 1990s (negating his claims about recent regulatory
failure) or doesn’t exist now to the degree he claims at all."
"But Malthouse’s diagnosis of why this is happening—primarily due to
monopolistic behavior—doesn’t necessarily follow from the data. That
conclusion simply ignores much more important factors: technological
changes, shifting consumer preferences, and structural economic
transformations. We can see this, because the industries affected aren’t
all the same."
"While Malthouse correctly notes that markups have risen, his
explanation for this trend doesn’t match the evidence. He suggests this
is primarily due to monopolistic exploitation, but the report finds “the
technology explanation plays a more significant role in driving markup
trends in the UK” than anti-competitive conduct.
The report shows
significant sectoral variation in markup trends. Administrative and
support services, professional/technical/scientific services, and arts
and entertainment have seen rapidly rising markups. In contrast,
manufacturing, construction, and accommodation/food services have
experienced milder increases."
"markup increases have been “driven predominantly by firms that already
have the largest markups” and that “the dispersion of markups has
grown,” both of which indicate widening gaps between market leaders and
followers. This suggests that certain firms may be pulling ahead not
just through market power, but through superior technology,
productivity, or business models—factors that might actually benefit
consumers through better products and services."
"In the United States, technology seems to be the main driver, so that’d be a good starting point for the UK."
"The four industries with the most concerning markup levels are “creative
arts and entertainment; temporary employment activities; information
services; and the organisation of conventions and trade shows.” None of
these feature prominently in Malthouse’s critique besides information
services"
"Manufacturing, which he suggests is dominated by monopolies, has actually seen stable markups over the last 25 years."
"In a paper
on the United States that I co-authored with Ryan Decker, we show that
the industries experiencing larger increases in markups actually saw
less of a decline in dynamism."
"When you plot the industry markup against different measures of dynamism, higher markups correlate with higher dynamism"