Tuesday, June 30, 2020

Small-Business Aid Program Has Significant Fraud Risk, GAO Says

Report cites volume of loans approved, speed in processing and limited safeguards; improvements recommended

By Yuka Hayashi. Excerpts:
"The $670 billion Paycheck Protection Program to help struggling small businesses survive fallout from the coronavirus pandemic faces a “significant risk” of fraud because of confusing rules and lack of safeguards, a Government Accountability Office report has found.

In its haste to get money to businesses quickly, the Small Business Administration allowed banks to rely on borrowers’ own certifications to determine their eligibility for loans, which can be forgiven if borrowers meet certain conditions, the report noted.

Shortcomings in the program were compounded by rules issued by the Treasury Department and the SBA after the program had been launched, leaving borrowers and lenders further confused and increasing the likelihood that funds are misused, the GAO said.

“Because of the number of loans approved, the speed with which they were processed and the limited safeguards, there is a significant risk that some fraudulent or inflated applications were approved,” the GAO said in the report released Thursday. “In addition, the lack of clear guidance has increased the likelihood that borrowers may misuse loan proceeds or be surprised they do not qualify for full loan forgiveness.”"

Many Minnesota Police Officers Remain on the Force Despite Misconduct

Employment and arbitration practices nationwide are now under scrutiny after the killing of George Floyd

By Coulter Jones and Louise Radnofsky of The WSJ. Excerpts:

"Minnesota police officers who are fired for misconduct or charged with criminal behavior often end up back on the force.

Law-enforcement officers in the state who appealed terminations since 2014 were reinstated half the time, according to a Wall Street Journal review of records from the Minnesota Bureau of Mediation Services, which maintains a database of arbitration awards.

A Journal review of a different data set found that officers in the Minneapolis police department who faced criminal charges during the past 15 years have been routinely allowed to return to the force, and half of them are working there today.

Those who still have their jobs, according to the data sets, include an officer who punched a handcuffed suspect and a sheriff’s deputy who was drunk and beat his canine partner."

"At least 40 police, sheriff’s deputies or corrections officers in Minnesota have appealed their terminations since 2014, according to arbitration records. Twenty terminations were reduced to a suspension, demotion or no punishment at all.

For cases involving use of force, seven out of nine officers were reinstated, including two officers from the Minneapolis police department."

"Even in places with no statewide collective bargaining rights for police departments, it can be difficult to permanently fire officers. In Atlanta—the center of a new round of protests after a white police officer fatally shot Rayshard Brooks, a black man, in the back—officers and other public city employees can seek remedy before the Civil Service Board."

"A record of misconduct or criminal behavior bodes poorly for an officer’s future policing, said Robert Kane, a Drexel University criminology professor. That misconduct can be contagious, and allowing those officers to stay on the job sends a damaging message about what will be tolerated, he said: “The more that happens, the more the organization itself becomes poorly misbehaved.”"

"Minneapolis Police Department Officer Peter Brazeau was accused of beating a handcuffed, intoxicated man in December 2016 outside a downtown bar, according to records filed as part of his arbitration. The department put Officer Brazeau on limited duty, and an advisory panel ruled that he had violated the department’s use-of-force policy.

He was returned to full duty in December 2017 while the department continued to hold internal hearings. More than two years after the incident, in February 2019, the department fired him for the violation.

In October 2019, an arbitrator agreed that Officer Brazeau violated use-of-force policies, but ruled that the termination was excessive given that the department trusted him to return to work after the incident. A job evaluation after the 2016 incident had said his performance “exceeds expectations.”
Officer Brazeau got his job back."

"Many states, including Minnesota, have a slim list of reasons for formally revoking a police officer’s certification, such as criminal sexual conduct or armed robbery. If officers are fired from one department but don’t lose certification, they can get rehired elsewhere.

Roger Goldman, a Saint Louis University emeritus law professor, said that for many state-licensed professions, the standard for losing a license was far lower than a criminal conviction. “If we have that for professions that are less serious than the ability of a cop to carry a gun and use deadly force and enter your home, you’d think we’d want at least as strong a provision,” he said.

A previous study by the Journal of 3,458 officers nationwide whose arrests made local news between 2005 and 2011 found that 332 were still working as police officers in 2015, often for the same agency. Another 1,927 officers faced no formal barrier to re-entering law enforcement.

The Journal’s recent study of the Minneapolis Police Department used data from Bowling Green State University criminologist Philip Stinson on 23 officers who were arrested between 2005 and 2013, and whose arrests became publicly known.

Eleven of those officers are working as police officers today and have had their licenses renewed following the arrest, according to data held by the Minnesota Board of Peace Officer Standards and Training."

Coping With Covid-19: Flare-ups are inevitable but new lockdowns aren’t the answer.

WSJ editorial. Excerpts:

"More spread was inevitable once states started to relax their lockdowns, and they are going to continue until a vaccine exists. But they also need to be put in context. New York City had about 12 times more Covid-19 patients per capita in intensive-care units at the peak of its hospital surge in April than California does today, six times more than Miami-Dade, five times more than Arizona, and four times more than Harris County. 

New York City and other hard-hit parts of the Northeast experienced bigger outbreaks in the spring, which were slow to recede even with strict lockdowns as the virus spread through nursing homes and public housing. Two months after locking down, New York City still had many more Covid patients in intensive care than most new hot spots do today.

Elderly patients typically require more acute care and spend more time in the hospital, and the good news is that the hospitalized cases now are younger and on average less severe. The chief operating officer of Tenet Healthcare, which runs hospitals in Sun Belt states, told investors last week that “the length of stay on [recent] cases is lower, the resource consumption is lower.”

Most hot spots currently have ample health-care capacity, though some hospitals are stretched. Miami-Dade County has about 1,000 ICU beds available for a surge, more than five times the number of Covid patients in intensive care. Harris County has about 455 ICU beds available, about as many as are currently occupied by Covid patients."

"Florida and Texas began reopening more than a month before hospitalizations began surging. Health officials in Arizona have linked flare-ups to specific events or places such as large Hispanic holiday gatherings and Indian reservations. Cases on Indian reservations and rural counties along the Mexican border are four to five times higher per capita than around Tucson and Phoenix. These can be monitored and contained.

Some clusters have been tied to bars and churches, and political leaders should do more to warn about social-distancing and to use masks. But states like Wisconsin and Iowa that have been open for several weeks have recorded only a slight or no uptick in hospitalizations. Locking down again won’t stop family gatherings in homes, or essential workers who return home to spread the virus to families."

"A new study in the Journal of the American Medical Association finds that the number of adults reporting symptoms of serious psychological distress rose to 13.6% from 3.9% in the same time in 2018, with higher levels among the young (24%), low-income (19.3%), and Hispanics (18.3%)."

Relatively stringent lockdown in Illinois, compared with Iowa, has created shift in spending and potential long-term consequences

See Tale of Quad Cities: Different Reopening Policies Split Economy of Border Communities by Doug Cameron of The WSJ. Excerpts:

"Pryce Boeye’s Hungry Hobo sandwich shops’ sales on the Iowa side of the Mississippi River have been booming since the state reopened dining rooms in mid-May, while those he owns in still-closed Illinois languish.

The pattern is repeated across the Quad Cities, a river-straddling metro area of around 420,000 that includes Scott and Muscatine counties on the Iowa side, as well as Rock Island and Henry counties in Illinois. The contrasting state reopening policies have created two tracks in what had been a unified economy before the coronavirus pandemic.

The scene is playing out in other border communities around the country where workers and shoppers regularly cross state lines. The relatively stringent lockdown regime in Illinois compared with Iowa has created a clear shift in current spending patterns and potential longer-term consequences.

“You go to any gas station or restaurant, and it is absolutely filled with Illinois license plates,” said Mr. Boeye. Sales at his six sandwich shops in Iowa are up 24% year over year after dining rooms were reopened at 50% capacity, and he has hired back furloughed staff. Takings at the six Illinois stores are down 7%."

"The chamber estimates that the once-even split in payment of sales taxes between the states is now more like 65% in favor of Iowa. The number of businesses still closed on the Illinois side of the Quad Cities is almost twice that in Iowa, according to employee-scheduling specialist Homebase."

America Doesn’t Need an Industrial Policy

But there are several things Washington could do to make the economy more resilient and secure

By Thomas J. Duesterberg. He is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. He was president and CEO of the Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation, 1999-2011. Excerpt:
"The pandemic has highlighted the inability of technical experts to understand and respond effectively to complex medical problems. Economic problems are no less complex. History records few examples of democracies in which political leaders have successfully steered their economies by targeting industries for support. Japan gave up central planning decades ago. Europe’s efforts to create national champions have largely foundered."

Monday, June 29, 2020

That couple in St. Louis defended their home and street (which is all private property) from trespassers

See White St. Louis couple point guns at protesters heading past their home to mayor’s house.  Excerpts:

"ST. LOUIS — A white couple stood outside their mansion and pointed guns at protesters in St. Louis as the group marched toward the mayor's home to demand her resignation.

Mark McCloskey, 63, told a TV station that he and wife, Patricia, both personal injury lawyers, were facing an “angry mob” on their private street and feared for their lives Sunday night.

No charges were brought against them. Police said they were still investigating but labeled it a case of trespassing and assault by intimidation against the couple by protesters.

The marchers were angry at Mayor Lyda Krewson for reading aloud the names and addresses of several residents who wrote letters calling for defunding the police department. The group of at least 500 people chanted, “Resign, Lyda! Take the cops with you!” news outlets reported.

A social media video  showed Mark McCloskey and his 61-year-old wife standing outside their Renaissance palazzo-style home in the city's well-to-do Central West End neighborhood. He can be heard yelling while holding a long-barreled gun. His wife stands next to him with a handgun.

Police said the couple had heard a loud commotion in the street and saw a large group of people break an iron gate marked with “No Trespassing” and “Private Street” signs.

Police said the man and woman told the marchers to leave because they were on a private street. But people in the crowd yelled obscenities and threats, police said. The man and woman said they saw people who were armed, so they armed themselves and called police, according to authorities."

"Mark McCloskey told KMOV-TV that a mob rushed toward the home as the family was having dinner and “put us in fear of our lives.”

“This is all private property. There are no public sidewalks or public streets. We were told that we would be killed, our home burned and our dog killed. We were all alone facing an angry mob,” McCloskey said."

"Video on social media showed protesters walking through the gate. It was unclear when it was damaged."

The Houston health care system has the resources and capacity necessary to treat patients with COVID-19

Hospital CEOs from Houston’s Largest Hospital Systems Discuss Capacity and COVID-19 Surge Plans by Rachel Norton of WoodlandsOnline. Excerpt:
"THE WOODLANDS, TX – Hospital CEO’s including, Dr. Marc Boom with Houston Methodist, Dr. David L. Callender with Memorial Hermann Health System, Dr. Doug Lawson with St. Luke’s Health, and Mark A. Wallace with Texas Children’s Hospital, held a zoom conference, June 25, out of concern, “that recent news coverage has unnecessarily alarmed the Houston community about hospital capacity during this COVID-19 surge.”

The two key major takeaways from today’s discussion: The Houston health care system has the resources and capacity necessary to treat patients with COVID-19 and otherwise, as well as the reiteration that it is vitally important for our community to do its part in order to flatten this new surge.

The following are statements made by each CEO that summarize their key points –

Dr. Marc Boom with Houston Methodist

“What you’ve been hearing is a report that we are at 97 percent or so capacity across the Texas medical center. At Houston Methodist, we’re somewhere in the low 90s right now in terms of capacity of ICU beds, but let me put that in perspective … June 25 2019, exactly one year ago … It was at 95 percent. We are highly experienced at utilizing our ICU beds for the sickest of the sick patients day in day out … and it is completely normal for us to have ICU capacities that run in the 80s and 90s. That’s how all of us operate hospitals, and how all hospitals operate.”

“The capacity that’s being reported is base capacity … we have the ability to go far higher than that in terms of the ICU beds that we can utilize for COVID.”

“We have, across Houston Methodist, 24 hundred beds 330 or so of those are our ICU beds on a normal day, but there is an ability to flex beds back and forth. We can turn regular beds into ICU as we need to with appropriate staff, ventilators, and other equipment. We can turn many other areas in the hospital like some of the recovery areas, pre and post surgical areas, and places like that into ICUs.”

“We are seeing younger patients, we are seeing a shorter length of stay, we are seeing lower immortality, and we are seeing lower ICU utilization right now.”"

African-American businesses declined 41 percent due to lockdowns

See The Impact of Covid-19 on Small Business Owners: Evidence of Early-Stage Losses by Robert Fairlie. He is an economics professor at University of California, Santa Cruz.

Abstract
"Social distancing restrictions and demand shifts from COVID-19 are expected to shutter manysmall businesses, but there is very little early evidence on impacts. This paper provides the first analysis of impacts of the pandemic on the number of active small businesses in the United States using nationally representative data from the April 2020 CPS – the first month fully capturing early effects from the pandemic. The number of active business owners in the United States plummeted by 3.3 million or 22 percent over the crucial two-month window from February to April 2020. The drop in business owners was the largest on record, and losses were felt across nearly all industries and even for incorporated businesses. African-American businesses were hit especially hard experiencing a 41 percent drop. Latinx business owners fell by 32 percent, and Asian business owners dropped by 26 percent. Simulations indicate that industry compositions partly placed these groups at a higher risk of losses. Immigrant business owners experienced substantial losses of 36 percent. Female-owned businesses were also disproportionately hit by 25 percent. These findings of early-stage losses to small businesses have important policy implications and may portend longer-term ramifications for job losses and economic inequality."

As COVID-19 Infections Rise, Patients Are Getting Younger

The trend, which may reflect growing defiance of social distancing in some age groups, implies a lower death rate

By Jacob Sullum of Reason. Excerpt:

"If rising infections in states such as Texas, California, Arizona, and Florida (which yesterday saw a record increase in new confirmed cases) represent a new normal rather than a one-time jump tied to social gatherings on Memorial Day weekend, it will be hard to put the genie back in the bottle, regardless of any legal restrictions politicians decide to reimpose. Given the impracticality of mass enforcement, social distancing has always required voluntary compliance, and the willingness to comply seems to be waning, partly because of sheer impatience but also because the experience with ham-handed, economically devastating, and frequently arbitrary lockdowns has left many people bitter and disinclined to follow official recommendations.

Assuming that large numbers of Americans are not willing to sit tight until vaccines and/or better treatments can be deployed, what will that mean for the COVID-19 death toll? On that score, there is some reason for (relative) optimism.

While I could not find data breaking down new Texas cases by age, the changing distribution of total cases confirms Abbott's point that newly infected people are younger now than they were earlier in the epidemic. As of yesterday, people older than 65 accounted for 15 percent of total confirmed cases in Texas, down from 22 percent on April 21. The share of cases involving people younger than 40 rose from 32 percent to 41 percent during the same period. Consistent with Abbott's gloss, the biggest jump was in 20-to-29-year-olds, whose share of all confirmed cases rose from 13 percent to 17 percent.

Those comparisons understate the change in recently detected infections, which is the relevant consideration in projecting COVID-19 deaths. In Florida, the median age of newly identified patients plummeted from 65 in early March to 35 last week. In California, according to an analysis released last week, 44 percent of newly diagnosed cases involved people 34 or younger, up from 29 percent a month earlier. The share of new cases involving people older than 50, meanwhile, fell from 46 percent to 30.5 percent.

Why is that good news? Last month the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimated that the risk of death for people with COVID-19 symptoms is just 0.05 percent among patients younger than 50. That risk rises to 0.2 percent among 50-to-64-year-olds and 1.3 percent among people 65 or older. In other words, those reckless idiots getting together in bars are correct in thinking that the risk for them is negligible, even if they overlook the fact that the risk for the oldest age group is much higher—26 times as high, according to the CDC's estimate.

While recent increases in COVID-19 infections can be expected to result in some additional deaths in the next few weeks, the consequences will not be nearly as bad as they would be if the new patients were older. The changing age distribution of cases helps explain why the nationwide tally of daily COVID-19 deaths, which has fallen dramatically since April, continued to decline long after states began lifting their lockdowns at the end of that month. Youyang Gu's epidemiological model, which has a good track record of predicting COVID-19 fatalities, currently projects that daily deaths in the United States will continue to decline until early July, then rise through mid-August, exceeding the current level by late July, before declining again through September, dropping below the current level by the middle of that month.

"With younger age of recent infections in at least some places such as Florida," former CDC Director Tom Frieden tweeted this week, "expect a lower death rate in this wave…until the 20-40-year-olds who are infected today go on to infect others." The implication is that we will eventually see a big surge in COVID-19 deaths as younger, healthier Americans relatively unscathed by the virus pass it on to others who are more vulnerable. But that is not a foregone conclusion. As always, it depends on the precautions that people take, and the onus for those seems to be shifting from the population at large to people in high-risk groups. We can debate whether or not that is fair, but it will not change the reality."

The herd immunity threshold may have been reached in the three largest regions in Sweden

See The progress of the COVID-19 epidemic in Sweden: an analysis by Nicholas Lewis.
"Notwithstanding that a month ago antibodies were only detected in 6.3% of the Swedish population, the declining death rate since mid-May strongly suggests that the herd immunity threshold had been surpassed in the three largest regions, and in Sweden as a whole, by the end of April.

In the absence of a change in trends, it seems likely that the epidemic will peter out after a thousand or so more deaths, implying an overall infection fatality rate of 0.06% of the population (0.04% excluding COVID-19 deaths of people in care homes). This is broadly comparable to excess deaths from influenza infections over two successive above-average seasons, such as 2016–17 plus 2017–18.[17]

The absence of a lockdown order, with the government largely trusting people to make their own individual decisions regarding their behaviour, informed by their particular circumstances, has enabled life to continue with less disruption and reduction of people’s autonomy in Sweden than in most other western European countries. While this has also meant that COVID-19 deaths to date have been higher than in some (but not all) other countries in which a lockdown was imposed, the wider spread of the epidemic in Sweden means that the future COVID-19 outlook there is better.

The herd immunity threshold is likely lower at present than it would be if people were behaving completely normally; it may also be seasonally lower. However, the continuing spread of infections since the peak of the epidemic, particularly among young people, should provide some margin of safety against its resurging when behaviour returns closer to normal and summer ends. That is, there is less risk of a second wave of the epidemic next winter. And if a second wave occurs, fewer measures should be needed to control it than in other countries."

Sunday, June 28, 2020

Tucker Carlson’s Fanciful Defense of What He Imagines Qualified Immunity To Be

By Jay Schweikert.

"A good sign that a policy is indefensible is when its proponents cannot bring themselves to describe it accurately. Such is the case with the doctrine of qualified immunity, which is currently the subject of a furious disinformation campaign led by the law‐​enforcement lobby (see here, here). The most recent mouthpiece for this campaign was Tucker Carlson, who two nights ago mounted a spirited defense of an imaginary legal rule that he called “qualified immunity,” but which bears only the faintest resemblance to the actual doctrine. Reason’s Billy Binion and IJ’s Patrick Jaicomo have already done a great job explaining some of Carlson’s biggest mistakes, but there is so much here that is either highly misleading or outright false that it’s worth unpacking in full. Strap in!

By way of background, the inciting incident for Carlson’s segment on qualified immunity was the “Reforming Qualified Immunity Act” introduced by Senator Mike Braun (R-IN) earlier this week. As I discussed here, what this bill would effectively do is eliminate qualified immunity in its current form and replace it with limited safe‐​harbor provisions. The main effect would be that people whose rights are violated would no longer need to find prior cases where someone else’s rights were violated in the same way before being allowed to proceed with their claims. However, if defendants could show that either (1) their actions were specifically authorized by a state or federal law they reasonably believed to be constitutional, or (2) their actions were specifically authorized by judicial precedent that was applicable at the time, then they could avoid liability.

In other words, this bill doesn’t go far as the Amash‐​Pressley “Ending Qualified Immunity Act,” which would eliminate the doctrine entirely. But it is still a significant proposal that both meaningfully addresses and corrects the core absurdity of the current qualified immunity regime (the “clearly established law” standard), while preserving immunity in those relatively rare—but more sympathetic—cases in which defendants are specifically acting in accordance with applicable statutes or judicial precedent. And, unlike the “Justice in Policing Act,” Senator Braun’s bill would reform qualified immunity across the board for all government agents, not just members of law enforcement.

So, what did Tucker Carlson have to say about this bill?
Braun has introduced legislation in the Congress that will make it easier for left‐​wing groups to sue police officers.
I won’t dwell on this point, because Carlson is clearly just being snarky here. But suffice to say, Braun’s proposal is not specific to “left‐​wing groups,” and indeed, not specific to police at all. Rather, it just amends Section 1983, our primary federal civil rights statute, which permits all citizens to sue government agents who violate their rights—to clarify that defendants cannot escape liability, just because there is no prior case with similar facts.
Under current law, police officers in this country benefit from something that’s called “qualified immunity.”
Again, qualified immunity is not limited to police officers. The defense can be raised by all state and local public officials who have civil rights claims brought against them, including corrections officers, public school officials, county clerks, and other municipal employees. Still, the reason qualified immunity is such a hot topic right now is because of its application to law enforcement, so I’ll stop harping on this issue. Also, the suggestion that police officers actually benefit from qualified immunity is highly suspect, but we’ll get to that later…
Qualified immunity means that cops can’t be personally sued when they accidentally violate people’s rights while conducting their duties. They can be sued personally when they do it intentionally, and they often are.
Here is where Carlson plunges headfirst into fantasy. This “accidental/​intentional” distinction he’s describing has no basis in qualified immunity case law. Indeed, under the “clearly established law” standard, a defendant’s state of mind has no bearing whatsoever on whether they are entitled to qualified immunity—a defendant could be explicitly acting in bad faith, with the express intent to violate someone’s rights, and still receive immunity, so long as there was no prior case involving the precise sort of misconduct they committed.

The best illustration of this point is the Ninth Circuit’s recent decision in Jessop v. City of Fresno, where the court granted immunity to police officers alleged to have stolen over $225,000 in cash and rare coins while executing a search warrant. The court noted that while “the theft [of] personal property by police officers sworn to uphold the law” may be “morally wrong,” the officers could not be sued for the theft because the Ninth Circuit had never specifically decided “whether the theft of property covered by the terms of a search warrant, and seized pursuant to that warrant, violates the Fourth Amendment.” In other words, it didn’t matter that the officers were intending to break the law; not even the defendants here claimed that they “accidentally” stole from this suspect. All that mattered was that the court hadn’t confronted this particular factual scenario before.
In other words, police officers are not above the law.
It is true that police officers are not literally immune from liability for their misconduct (unlike prosecutors, who actually do receive absolute immunity for violating people’s rights). But police officers are held to a vastly lower standard of accountability than the citizens they police. For regular people, it’s a well‐​known legal maxim that “ignorance of the law is no excuse.” Even in cases with serious criminal penalties, courts routinely permit the prosecution and conviction of defendants who had no idea they were breaking the law. If anything, you would expect law enforcement—public officials specifically charged with knowing and enforcing the law—to be held to a higher standard of care than ordinary citizens. But in fact, they’re held to a far lower standard. Ignorance of the law is no excuse—unless you wear a badge.
Cops who commit crimes can be punished .… Cops who make lesser mistakes can be disciplined, suspended, or fired, and they often are. That’s the system that we have now. It works pretty well.
If this assertion doesn’t cause you to burst out laughing, then you haven’t been paying attention to our criminal justice system for the last several decades. Suffice to say, no, our system is not working pretty well. It is extraordinarily difficult to convince prosecutors to bring charges against police officers, much less to obtain convictions (see here for a list of especially notable non‐​convictions). And internal discipline measures are laughably feeble, due in large part to the power of police unions. The inadequacy of both criminal prosecution and internal discipline as meaningful accountability measures is exactly why we need a robust civil remedy—and therefore exactly why qualified immunity is such a serious problem (we’ve argued this point in much more detail in our cross‐​ideological amicus briefs before the Supreme Court).
Civil immunity, by the way, has precisely nothing to do with anything that happened in the George Floyd case, just in case you’re wondering. That cop is in jail.
Qualified immunity applies in civil law suits, not criminal prosecutions, so it’s true that qualified immunity will not limit the criminal prosecution of Derek Chauvin. But Carlson is wrong that the doctrine has “nothing to do with anything that happened in the George Floyd case,” for two reasons.
First, if George Floyd’s family does decide to bring a civil rights claim against Chauvin and the other officers on the scene, it is entirely possible that the officers would be able to invoke qualified immunity, depending on whether there’s a prior case in the Eighth Circuit with similar facts (i.e., an officer kneeling on a non‐​resisting suspect’s neck for a long period of time while the suspect says he can’t breathe). Even if Chauvin is convicted of murder, that’s no guarantee that he wouldn’t be entitled to immunity in a civil suit. Whether a prosecutor can prove the elements of murder beyond a reasonable doubt is simply a different legal question than whether prior case law would make the violation of George Floyd’s rights “clearly established,” under modern qualified immunity doctrine.

Second, the senseless violence committed by Derek Chauvin and the stunning indifference of the other officers standing nearby are the product of our culture of near‐​zero accountability for law enforcement. While that culture has many complex causes, one of the most significant is qualified immunity. Section 1983 was supposed to be the primary means of holding accountable government agents who violate our constitutional rights. Qualified immunity has severely undermined the deterrent effect of that statute, and thereby contributed to an environment where police simply do not expect to be held to account when they commit misconduct.
Qualified immunity has worked so well because police officers, maybe more than anyone else in society, must make difficult split‐​second decisions on the job, and a lot. They do it constantly. Whether to arrest someone, whether to conduct a search, whether to use force against a suspect. Sometimes, actions they sincerely and reasonably believe are legal are found later by courts to be unconstitutional.
Here, Carlson regurgitates what is probably the most commonly invoked defense of qualified immunity: that it is necessary to protect the discretion of police officers to make split‐​second decisions. And, no surprise, it is profoundly mistaken. This was the very first issue I addressed in my previous post on “The Most Common Defenses of Qualified Immunity, and Why They’re Wrong,” but the short answer is that our substantive standards for determining what actions do and do not violate the Fourth Amendment already incorporate substantial deference to on‐​the‐​spot police decision‐​making. In other words, when police “sincerely and reasonably” make a decision about whether to arrest someone or use force, they almost certainly will not have broken the law in the first place. Qualified immunity is therefore unnecessary to protect this discretion, because the doctrine, by definition, only applies when a defendant has committed a constitutional violation.

Moreover, as a I discussed above, qualified immunity has nothing to do with whether an officer “sincerely and reasonably” believed their actions to be lawful. It doesn’t turn on their state of mind at all. All that matters is whether a court determines that the facts of prior cases were sufficiently similar to hold that the law was “clearly established.”

The Reason article by Billy Binion aptly notes that Carlson’s assertion here “can only be explained by a lack of familiarity with qualified immunity case law,” and provides numerous examples of the sort of egregious injustices this doctrine regularly permits:
Take the cop who received qualified immunity after shooting a 10‐​year‐​old while in pursuit of a suspect that had no relationship to the child. The officer, sheriff’s deputy Matthew Vickers, was aiming at the boy’s nonthreatening dog. There were also the cops who were granted qualified immunity after assaulting and arresting a man for standing outside of his own house. And the prison guards who locked a naked inmate in a cell filled with raw sewage and “massive amounts” of human feces. And the cop who, without warning, shot a 15‐​year‐​old who was on his way to school. And the cops who received qualified immunity after siccing a police dog on a person who’d surrendered. It doesn’t take much thought to conclude that those courses of action were morally bankrupt.
Just so. Okay, back to Carlson’s defense of what‐​he‐​calls‐​qualified‐​immunity:
Sometimes the very laws [police officers] enforce are struck down. That’s not their fault, obviously, but without qualified immunity, police could be sued for that personally.
Only a tiny fraction of lawsuits against police involve claims that the laws they’re enforcing are themselves unconstitutional. But Carlson actually is correct that, without qualified immunity, police officers could be held liable for enforcing unconstitutional statutes. Indeed, that sort of application was probably the principal evil that Congress had in mind when it enacted Section 1983 in 1871, as part of the Ku Klux Klan Act. Congress was well aware that southern states would continue passing laws infringing on the constitutional rights of recently freed slaves, and they wanted to deter state and local officials from carrying out such laws. Executive officers—no less than legislators or judges—have an independent obligation to enforce and respect constitutional limitations.

Still, one can understand the seeming unfairness in holding defendants personally liable when the only conduct alleged to be unlawful was executing a statute they reasonably believed to be valid. But, for that very reason, this is one of the two explicit safe harbors included in Braun’s bill! His proposal specifically states that a defendant will not be liable under Section 1983 when “the conduct alleged to be unlawful was specifically authorized or required by a Federal statute or regulation, or by a statute passed by the primary legislative body of the State … in which the conduct was committed.” In other words, Carlson is either entirely unaware of or willfully concealing the fact that Braun agrees with his own argument here, and has already incorporated it into his bill.
[Police officers] could be bankrupted, they could lose their homes. That’s unfair. It would also end law enforcement. No one would serve as a police officer.
This is another issue I already addressed in my “common defenses” post, but I’ll repeat the main points here. First, it’s crucial to understand that even today, police officers are nearly always indemnified for any settlements or judgments against them in civil rights claims. This means that their municipal employers, not the officers themselves, actually end up paying. Joanna Schwartz, a UCLA law professor and probably the foremost scholar of qualified immunity, demonstrated in a 2014 article called Police Indemnification that, in her study period, “governments paid approximately 99.98% of the dollars that plaintiffs recovered in lawsuits alleging civil rights violations by law enforcement.” In other words, even when plaintiffs do overcome qualified immunity, the individual police officers rarely pay a dime.

I have written elsewhere about how this practice of near‐​automatic indemnification is itself problematic, because it fails to provide for individualized accountability for officers who violate people’s rights. A better practice, as my colleague Clark Neily has also discussed, would be to take some portion of the money that municipalities already spend on civil rights judgments, and instead put that toward an insurance allowance for individual officers. Nevertheless, as things currently stand, officers are almost never required to pay anything personally, and that won’t change if we eliminate qualified immunity. The idea that police would be “bankrupted” or “lose their homes” is reckless fear‐​mongering.

Also, with regard to the idea that eliminating qualified immunity would “end law enforcement,” I wonder whether Carlson is aware that he’s made a testable prediction? After all, as I discussed here, Colorado recently enacted a civil rights law that effectively removes the defense of qualified immunity for officers who violate people’s rights under the state constitution. Will this “end law enforcement” in Colorado? If Tucker Carlson or anyone who agrees with him would like to make a bet on this question, I’ll give generous odds.
And that’s why the Supreme Court has upheld the principle of qualified immunity for decades now, often unanimously, both sides agreeing.
I will give Carlson this—he is absolutely right that the Supreme Court has shown remarkable tenacity in sticking to one of the most embarrassing, egregious mistakes in its history. Section 1983 clearly says that any state actor who violates someone’s constitutional rights “shall be liable to the party injured,” and the common‐​law history against which that statute was passed did not include any across‐​the‐​board defenses for all public officials. The Supreme Court’s invention of qualified immunity was a brazen act of judicial policy‐​making that effectively rewrote this statute, and it’s shameful that the Justices have repeatedly declined the opportunity to correct this error.

What is surprising, however, is why Tucker Carlson approves of such blatant judicial activism in this case. After all, Carlson himself recently bemoaned how “courts increasingly have come to see themselves not as interpreters of the law, their constitutional role, but as the country’s main policy makers.” So, does he want the Supreme Court to faithfully interpret the text and history of Section 1983, or to continue imposing their own policy preferences?
But now, in order to placate the rioters, who he believes have more moral authority than the police, Senator Mike Braun of Indiana would like to gut qualified immunity, and make it easier for cops to be sued personally for mistakes.
I already discussed above how Senator Braun’s bill does not wholly abolish qualified immunity, but rather replaces the “clearly established law” standard with two limited, principled safe‐​harbors. I also discussed how Section 1983 doesn’t make cops liable for “mistakes,” it makes them liable for constitutional violations—and the Fourth Amendment itself is already incredibly deferential to police decision‐​making. An officer hasn’t violated the Fourth Amendment because they made the “wrong” call with regard to an arrest or use of force; they only violate the Fourth Amendment when they act objectively unreasonable, under the circumstances known to them at the time.

But I do want to address this idea of “moral authority.” Setting aside the nonsense about “placating rioters,” how does it affect the moral authority of the law enforcement community when we hold police officers to a lower standard of liability than any other profession? As I’ve discussed previously, the proponents of qualified immunity are profoundly mistaken if they think the doctrine is doing the law enforcement community any favors. If you want to restore the moral authority of the police, you can’t let police officers escape liability for egregious and immoral misconduct. If you want people to respect officers as professionals, then the law has to hold them to professional standards.

Qualified immunity, more than any other single rule or decision, has eroded the moral authority of the police, not protected it. And that is exactly why the more thoughtful members of law enforcement—such as the Law Enforcement Action Partnership and the National Organization of Black Law Enforcement Executives—have explicitly called for the elimination of qualified immunity. As Major Neill Franklin (Ret.) has explained: “Accountability measures that show an agency is serious about respecting the rights of all of its residents help the police as much as they help the communities we serve. There’s no better way to restore community trust. And we cannot do our jobs without trust.”

* * *

Carlson finishes his segment with a rant about Charles Koch that would make Nancy MacLean blush, and then asks whether Senator Braun would be willing to defend the absolute immunity that members of Congress enjoy. This latter question is interesting enough on its own, but Carlson obviously just intends it as a “gotcha,” not as a serious point of discussion.

But the bottom line is that Tucker Carlson has done a profound disservice to his viewers and to the country by further propagating blatant misunderstandings of what qualified immunity actually is. It’s honestly hard to say whether Carlson himself has been duped, or whether he is willfully joining the disinformation campaign of the law‐​enforcement lobby. But either way, nobody should take what he’s saying at face value. I remain interested to see whether any self‐​professed advocate of qualified immunity will defend the actual doctrine."

How government failed during the pandemic in UK

By Alberto Mingardi of EconLog.

"The Economist published a lead article on Britain and Covid19. By and large, the piece attempts to be an indictment of Boris Johnson’s leadership. For The Economist, England had “the wrong kind of prime minister”: “Mr Johnson got the top job because he is a brilliant campaigner and a charismatic entertainer with whom the Conservative Party fell in love”. The main criticism of Johnson is that he did not lock the country down earlier, therefore going in the direction some scientists (in particular, Professor Neil Ferguson of the Imperial College) thought was best.

Yet perhaps Johnson should be held accountable for lack of other measures that did not include a lockdown. For example, for a long time, people entering in England weren’t tested but just asked to go through self-quarantine. The idea that locking England down a week earlier would have spared it half of its casualties is certainly a powerful criticism. Perhaps Professor Ferguson is right, but his views should be taken with more than a grain of salt.

The piece has however some interesting considerations, worth sharing and pondering.

1) Centralization and decentralization
 
In the pandemic, centralization of decision-making was widely praised and many people considered, for example, the “divided governance” of the emergency, between Washington and state government, as an additional risk factor. The Economist on the other hand points out that: “the government has wasted the most precious commodity in a crisis: time. In a federal system, like America’s, the central government’s failings can be mitigated by state and local authorities. In a centralised system, they cannot.” So, perhaps federal, decentralized systems are not necessarily performing worse in the emergency than centralized ones. Switzerland and Germany (a most successful state in coping with Covid19) are federal systems too.

2) The NHS
 
The NHS was not “overwhelmed” and went through “a swift reorganization” to cope with increased demand. I wonder how this happened and if perhaps it is an assessment that could be generalized: that is if hospital networks actually performed better than expected also in other countries and instead what failed was “public health”, i.e. the complex set of measures that were put in place to combat the epidemic.

3) PPE
 
The Economist argues that:
Delays in fixing ppe supply chains, promoting face coverings and increasing testing capacity were clearly errors at the time. Despite the urging of the country’s scientists and the World Health Organisation, by the middle of April Britain was still carrying out just 12,000 tests a day, compared with 44,000 in Italy and 51,000 in Germany. Because most testing was reserved for hospitals, care homes struggled to find out which of their residents and staff were infected. Competition for ppe was fierce, so they also struggled to get the kit they needed to protect their workers.
The government is not solely to blame. The pandemic made new demands on the system. Some crucial bits of machinery did not work. The publicly owned company which supplies the health service with ppe failed. Public Health England, which was responsible for testing and tracing, failed.
This complements the strong criticism of Public Health for being “horrendously bureaucratic” on the Daily Telegraph. Matt Ridley soberly explained that “The decisions by Public Health England not to go out to the market for testing, protective equipment and logistics, to cease testing almost completely in March and to send people to care homes from hospitals affected by the virus – these were just bureaucratic bone-headedness”.

The Economist faults the government for not mobilizing the private sector strongly enough for testing (a point also raised by Terence Kealey) and points out that failures in the supply of PPE were actually due to public procurement mistakes (just google PPE Covid UK and a list of disasters will appear on your screen).

It will take time, I think, to assess what went well and what went wrong with Covid19 – and it will take a better understanding of the virus and the illness it creates. Yet I think the idea that “you need bigger governments to cope with the pandemic” will look more and more like an oversimplication. Indeed, it is almost certain to look like a very expensive oversimplification, as it will be used as an excuse to increase government budgets substantially."

The shocking story behind Nixon’s declaration of a ‘War on Drugs’ on this day in 1971 that targeted blacks and anti-war activists

From Mark Perry. Also see Was Nixon's war on drugs a racially motivated crusade? It's a bit more complicated by German Lopez of Vox.
"Today, June 17, marks the 49th anniversary of a shameful day in US history — it’s when President Richard Nixon’s declared what has been the US government’s longest and costliest war — the epic failure known as the War on Drugs. At a press conference on that day in 1971, Nixon identified drug abuse as “public enemy number one in the United States” and launched a failed, costly and inhumane “all out offensive” on Americans that continues to today. Early the following year, Nixon created the Office of Drug Abuse Law Enforcement (ODALE) in January 1972 to wage a government war on otherwise peaceful and innocent Americans who voluntarily chose to ingest plants, weeds, and intoxicants proscribed by the government. In July 1973, ODALE was consolidated, along with several other federal drug agencies, into the newly established Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) as a new “super agency” to handle all aspects of the War on Drugs Otherwise Peaceful and Innocent Americans Who Voluntarily Choose to Ingest Intoxicants and Weeds Currently Proscribed by the Government.

But as John Ehrlichman, Nixon’s counsel and Assistant for Domestic Affairs, revealed in 1994, the real public enemy in 1971 wasn’t really drugs or drug abuse. Rather the real enemies of the Nixon administration were the anti-war left and blacks, and the War on Drugs was designed as an evil, deceptive and sinister policy to wage a war on those two groups. In an article in the April 2016 issue of The Atlantic (“Legalize It All: How to win the war on drugs“) [it is actually Harper's] author and reporter Dan Baum explains how “John Ehrlichman, the Watergate co-conspirator, unlocked for me one of the great mysteries of modern American history: How did the United States entangle itself in a policy of drug prohibition that has yielded so much misery and so few good results?” As Baum discovered, here’s the dirty and disgusting secret to that great mystery of what must be the most expensive, shameful, and reprehensible failed government policy in US history.
Americans have been criminalizing psychoactive substances since San Francisco’s anti-opium law of 1875, but it was Ehrlichman’s boss, Richard Nixon, who declared the first “War on Drugs” in 1971 and set the country on the wildly punitive and counterproductive path it still pursues. I’d tracked Ehrlichman, who had been Nixon’s domestic-policy adviser, to an engineering firm in Atlanta, where he was working on minority recruitment. At the time, I was writing a book about the politics of drug prohibition. I started to ask Ehrlichman a series of earnest, wonky questions that he impatiently waved away.
“You want to know what this was really all about?” he asked with the bluntness of a man who, after public disgrace and a stretch in federal prison, had little left to protect. “The Nixon campaign in 1968, and the Nixon White House after that, had two enemies: the antiwar left and black people. You understand what I’m saying? We knew we couldn’t make it illegal to be either against the war or blacks, but by getting the public to associate the hippies with marijuana and blacks with heroin, and then criminalizing both heavily, we could disrupt those communities. We could arrest their leaders, raid their homes, break up their meetings, and vilify them night after night on the evening news. Did we know we were lying about the drugs? Of course we did.”
Nixon’s invention of the War on Drugs as a political tool was cynical, but every president since — Democrat and Republican alike — has found it equally useful for one reason or another. Meanwhile, the growing cost of the Drug War is now impossible to ignore: billions of dollars wasted, bloodshed in Latin America and on the streets of our own cities, and millions of lives destroyed by draconian punishment that doesn’t end at the prison gate; one of every eight black men has been disenfranchised because of a felony conviction.
MP: As much as Prohibition (The War on Alcohol) was also an expensive, epic and misguided failure of government policy, it didn’t have its origins in any type of equivalent sinister and evil plot to destroy enemies of the Woodrow Wilson administration in 1919 like Nixon’s War on Drugs. In fact, President Wilson vetoed the Volstead Act, the popular name for the National Prohibition Act, but the House and Senate both voted quickly to override the veto and America started the War on
Alchohol    Otherwise Peaceful and Innocent Americans Who Voluntarily Chose to Ingest Beer, Wine, and Spirits in 1920.  

If the real goal of the War on Drugs was to target, convict and incarcerate subversive anti-war “hippies” and black Americans, as Ehrlichman describes it, it sure worked as the chart above of the male incarceration rate in the US shows. During the nearly 50-year period between 1925 and the early 1970s, the male incarceration rate was remarkably stable at about 200 men per 100,000 population, or 1 US male per 500, according to data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics. By 1986, about a decade-and-a-half after the War on Drugs started locking up drug users and dealers in cages, the male incarceration rate doubled to 400 per 100,000 population. Then within another decade, the male incarceration rate doubled again to more than 800 by 1996 before reaching a historic peak of 956 in 2008 (about one in 100) that was almost five times higher than the stable rate before the War on Drugs. The arrest and incarceration data show that the War on Drugs had a significantly much greater negative effect on blacks and Hispanics than whites, making the Drug War even more shameful for its devastating and disproportionately adverse effects on America’s most vulnerable and disadvantaged populations.

Since the 2008 peak, the male incarceration rate has been gradually declining in each of the last seven years of available data through 2016, possibly because of three trends: a) decriminalization of weeds at the city and state level, b) the legalization of medical weeds at the state level, and c) now legalization of recreational weeds at the city and state levels.

While there could have been other factors that contributed to the nearly five-fold increase in the male incarceration rate between the early 1970s and the peak in 2008, research clearly shows that the War on Drugs, along with mandatory minimum sentencing in the 1980s and the disparate treatment of powdered cocaine and “crack cocaine” (powdered cocaine processed with baking soda into smokable rocks) were all significant contributing factors to the unprecedented rate of incarcerated Americans. Here are some conclusions from the 2014 book The Growth of Incarceration in the United States: Exploring Causes and Consequences (my emphasis):




1. The states’ combined incarceration rates increased across all crime categories between 1980 and 2010 (see chart above). Most striking, however, is the dramatic increase in the incarceration rate for drug-related crimes. In 1980, imprisonment for drug offenses was rare, with a combined state incarceration rate of 15 per 100,000 population. By 2010, the drug incarceration rate had increased nearly 10-fold to 143 per 100,000. Indeed, the rate of incarceration for the single category of drug-related offenses, excluding local jails and federal prisons, by itself exceeds by 50% the average incarceration rate for all crimes of Western European countries and is twice the average incarceration rate for all crimes of a significant number of European countries.

2. Arrest rates for federal drug offenses climbed in the 1970s, and mandatory prison time for these offenses became more common in the 1980s. Mandatory prison sentences, intensified enforcement of drug laws, and long sentences contributed not only to overall high rates of incarceration but also especially to extraordinary rates of incarceration in black and Latino communities. Intensified enforcement of drug laws subjected blacks, more than whites, to new mandatory minimum sentences—despite lower levels of drug use and no higher demonstrated levels of trafficking among the black than the white population.

3. As a result of the lengthening of sentences and greatly expanded drug law enforcement and imprisonment for drug offenses, criminal defendants became more likely to be sentenced to prison and remained there significantly longer than in the past. The policy shifts that propelled the growth in incarceration had disproportionately large effects on African Americans and Latinos. Indeed, serving time in prison has become a normal life event among recent birth cohorts of African American men who have not completed high school.
Bottom Line: Even without the nefarious, vile, and veiled origins revealed by Ehrlichman in 1994, the War on
Drugs Otherwise Peaceful Americans Who Voluntarily Choose To Ingest Intoxicants and Weeds Currently Proscribed by the Government, Which Will Lock You Up in a Cage if Caught would represent one of the most shameful chapters in America’s history. But with its intention to destroy the black community and anti-war peace activists, which has certainly been “successfully” achieved for the black community, the shamefulness of the War on Drugs is elevated to a much higher level of despicable, evil immorality."

Saturday, June 27, 2020

Getting realistic about the coronavirus death rate

By Alex Berenson.

"With coronavirus infections rising again across the nation, the question of just how lethal the ­virus is has become more crucial than ever.

Early in the epidemic, public-health experts feared the virus might kill up to 2 percent of those infected, potentially causing millions of deaths in the United States and tens of millions worldwide. Those terrifying estimates prompted the lockdowns that have done incalculable harm to the economy, shattered small businesses and left children traumatized and untold numbers suffering from brutal isolation.

But we now know much more about the virus. And we know its lethality is lower than we originally feared — and highly concentrated in the very elderly and people with serious health problems.

In fact, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ­esti­mated in May that the coronavirus kills about 0.26 percent of the people it infects, about 1 in 400 people. New estimates from Sweden suggest that only 1 in 10,000 people under 50 will die from the virus, compared to 1 in 14 of people over 80 and 1 in 6 of those over 90.

Estimates for the coronavirus’ lethality have fallen so sharply because calculating the ­so-called infection fatality rate requires scientists and physicians to know both the total number of deaths and the total number of people infected.

Tracking deaths is relatively easy. But tracking infections can be tough. Many people who are infected with respiratory ­viruses like influenza or the novel coronavirus have only mild symptoms or none. They may never be tested or even know they are infected.

Thus, in the early stages of an epidemic, scientists must guess at the number of mild and hidden infections.

Probably the best way to discover the real number is through antibody tests, which measure how many people have already been infected and recovered — even if they never had symptoms.

Unlike some other countries, the United States still hasn’t completed a national random antibody study — yet another way in which our public-health establishment has failed to get the data we need to make good decisions about lockdowns. But some counties, states and countries have.

Those studies consistently show that far more people have been infected with and recovered from the coronavirus than suggested by data from tests that only measure current infections. Tests of municipal sewage systems — measuring the virus’ genetic signature in wastewater — have had similar findings.
Nearly all the studies find between 10 and 100 times the number of total infections as reported infections, with the average somewhere around 20 to 25 times.

In other words, while the CDC reports 2.34 million Americans have been infected with the coronavirus, the actual number of infected and recovered people may be closer to 50 million. (CDC Director Robert Redfield told journalists Thursday that the number of cases may be 10 times higher than the earlier 2.34 million.)

Thus, the death rate, which would be 5.2 percent based on that 2.34 million figure, is actually more like one-20th as high — or 0.26 percent.

To be sure, these estimates still have some uncertainty. The ­actual figure could be as low as 0.1 percent or as high as 0.4 to 0.5 percent, though treatment advances should mean it will trend lower over time. Even at 0.26 percent, the rate is still significantly higher than influenza most years, more comparable to a bad flu strain like the 1968 Hong Kong flu.

But it is far lower than we initially thought — a fact that should be cause for celebration.
Instead, some media outlets insist on using the out-of-date estimates that are much higher. For example, an ESPN article this week said public discussions about reopening the National Football League were “ignoring a mortality rate that has been estimated at 1.4 percent.” That figure is more than five times the CDC’s best estimate. Even more jarring, it is more than 100 times the actual risk to people in their 20s and 30s — the age range for nearly all NFL players.

Using those overstated estimates is a recipe for panic, bad public policy — and continued lockdowns that may delay to ­return to normality.

Let’s hope that isn’t the reason people in the media are using them.

Alex Berenson, a former New York Times reporter, is the author of “Unreported Truths About COVID-19 and Lockdowns: Part 1, Introduction and Death Counts and Estimates,” available on Amazon. This essay is adapted from that booklet."

Accommodating Dysfunction: San Francisco’s plan to put homeless people in hotels and motels is not going well.

By Erica Sandberg.

"One recent morning a disheveled, visibly disturbed man ran frantically around the lobby of the Mark Hopkins Hotel, the historic and elegant property located at the crest of tony Nob Hill. As one of San Francisco’s designated Front-Line Worker Housing (FLWH) hotels, it’s reserved for health-care and public-safety employees working on Covid-19 related matters. But San Francisco is surreptitiously placing homeless people in luxury hotels by designating them as emergency front-line workers, a term that the broader community understands to mean doctors, nurses, and similar professionals.
“Do I look scary to you?” the man demanded. “They’re trying to evict me because I wanted more towels but I’m homeless! They called the cops on me.” He dashed out the door and around the grand circular entrance, where two police officers attempted to resolve the situation. Soon a cab pulled up and an inebriated couple emerged, holding full plastic trash bags. They fought, screaming at each other until the woman entered the lobby and her partner lit a meth pipe in the garage area. More “front-line workers.”

If neighborhood residents were more aware of the influx of these new guests who frequently suffer from drug addiction and severe mental illness as well as having criminal backgrounds, they might object. Consequently, the city has evoked emergency-disaster law to keep the information private. Officials refuse to notify the public about what is happening in their community and are blocking the press by withholding the list of hotels and preventing reporters from entering the properties. The Department of Emergency Management has attempted to spin the secrecy by claiming, “Disclosure of the names of hotels where people are being sheltered could jeopardize the privacy and safety of the vulnerable people whom the City has placed there if the public and the press become aware of the circumstances of their placement and could increase the risk that they will be subject to discrimination or harassment on the basis of their health status or status as an unsheltered person.”
The public does have a right to know, however, and obfuscation is ultimately futile. Security guards standing outside hotel entrances, where they had never been before, are clear indicators that something is amiss. An uptick in crime, drug activity, and vagrancy around the hotels is another clue. Properties that have become de facto homeless shelters range from low-end haunts such as the Motel 6 to mid-range and boutique hotels like the Inn on Broadway and Hotel Del Sol. High-end hotels that house the homeless-turned-frontline-workers include the InterContinental San Francisco —and the Mark Hopkins.

The Department of Public Health manages the controversial free alcohol, cigarette, and cannabis program for homeless people placed in the hotels. It originally claimed that money for the service came from private donations, which are not allowed by law. After multiple requests to provide the names of the donors, the DPH conceded that “No such record currently exists.” A public-records investigation into the matter has revealed that, as of June 16, DPH approved $3,795.98 to buy the homeless guests vodka and beer (cigarettes have been scrapped). The funding came from the public treasury, after all.

Meanwhile chaos is erupting inside and around the hotels. City and hotel workers are required to sign nondisclosure agreements and are forbidden from discussing what they’re seeing. Per the Mayor’s Declaration of Emergency, speaking out can result in a fine of up to $1,000, imprisonment with a maximum sentence of one year, or both.

Nevertheless, concerned inside sources report destroyed rooms and rampant illegal drug use. In one hotel, guests are given needle kits and are advised to call the front desk before shooting up; there have been four deaths in the last few days. Sharp containers have been placed on every floor; used syringes are discarded haphazardly. Badly needed mental-health help is not being administered. The entire operation is disorganized, with staff members constantly moved around, never knowing what they’ll do from one day to the next. One source asked to make it clear that as public servants they love the city and all its inhabitants, but the plan has left them deeply demoralized.

The hotels were pressured into accepting the homeless guests, though they were also eager for the chance to recoup some revenue lost to the Covid-19 lockdowns. Rooms are rented at close to $200 per night, totaling $6,000 a month—nearly double the cost of a private one-bedroom apartment in San Francisco. The city-sponsored guests also receive personal grooming, sanitary, and cleaning supplies, three delivered meals, and laundry service for clothes and linens. Contracts last between 90 days and two years; by that point, the guests may be able to claim de facto permanent residence.

Hotel owners consented to the arrangements fully aware of the potential pitfalls, having been assured that FEMA dollars would cover at least some of the damages incurred. As part of the agreement, the city promised the hoteliers, who are worried about bad publicity, that they wouldn’t reveal who their guests are and what they’ve been doing during their stay. Even with complementary lodging and amenities, city workers report at least a 20 percent attrition rate. Of the guests who remain, roughly a third stay outside all day, not taking the shelter-in-place rules seriously.

In the end, the wildly expensive hotel plan is unlikely to help most homeless individuals achieve self-sufficient lives and won’t elevate the city’s most destitute districts. Since the plan to shift people from tents and doorways to hotels began in May, the blighted neighborhoods have shown no sign of improvement. That’s not surprising, since change is not likely until the city disallows tents completely, abandons its hands-off drug-dealing and usage policies, and commits to treating people with addiction issues and mental illness—not giving them hotel rooms where they can overdose, whether alone or with others whom they bring into the property. At one FLWH hotel, a non-guest was recently found dead in the hallway, still clinging to a crack pipe.

Eventually, at least some of these properties will revert to being real hotels again, and homeless guests will check out. If the city has an exit plan for what happens next, though, officials aren’t sharing it.

As for the distressed “front-line worker” at the Mark Hopkins, the Department of Emergency Management announced that he is no longer permitted to remain at the hotel. “The City will be providing accommodations for this individual at an alternative program location.” Media, says DEM, are not allowed on site.

Closing Schools Was a Grievous Error

By Williamson M. Evers. He is a Senior Fellow and Director of the Center on Educational Excellence at the Independent Institute. 
"Education leaders across the country are trying to determine whether and when they can safely reopen K-12 schools. What everyone needs to realize is that for students under 16 years of age schools never should have been closed. These students should return to their classrooms for summer school right away.
Older students also can return to school but need to observe the same precautions as adults under 65: washing hands, not touching their faces, and so forth.

Sweden never closed schools for those under 16 and public health authorities in neighboring Norway and Denmark now acknowledge that Sweden made the correct decision.

Globally, according to a research review published recently in The Lancet, a leading medical journal, the number of Covid-19 deaths prevented by school closings has been vanishingly small. The same can’t be said about the closings’ educational effects, which have been devastating.

Regular public schools were not prepared to switch to distance learning. Teachers were not trained; equipment was not in place, and as UNESCO put it in a report on school closings’ adverse effects, parents were “unprepared for distance and home schooling.” This was “especially true for parents with limited education and resources.”

During the lockdown, only one-fifth of the school districts surveyed by the Center for Reinventing Public Education—including districts in many of America’s most populous cities—required their teachers to provide live online video lessons to students.

Validly measuring student performance was even more challenging. Scheduled tests, especially those serving as gateways to selective colleges or validating promotion to higher educational levels, were disrupted. Online exams risked being unfair to students without the needed computer technology and internet connections—and may have made cheating all too easy. Giving pass/fail grades for online work encouraged lazy students not to do much of anything and punished hard-working students by not giving them letter-grades reflecting their accomplishments and efforts.

We know from both research and experience that students learn only if they spend enough high-quality time on task. They need to concentrate on what they need to know, within a well-designed curriculum. Their efforts need to be focused on studying that leads to their mastery of the subject-matter. Most children need a skilled and knowledgeable in-person teacher to accomplish this and, according to a study from the Center for Research on Education Outcomes at Stanford University, do not do as well in an all-virtual setting.

A survey of public-school students in Broward County, Florida on online learning during the lockdown found that 48% did not foresee completing their school work for the week, 45% had trouble focusing, 40% spent less than three hours per day on schoolwork, 81% joined video classes only a few days a week, and 52% didn’t feel motivated enough to do schoolwork. And that’s in a district with considerable experience with online learning.

Usually, as Fordham Institute president Michael J. Petrilli points out, only those who are “high-achieving, self-motivated learners” with considerable family support at home succeed in schooling that is online only. This is not to deny that a number of programs that blend online and classroom learning performed well pre-Covid-19. It is instead to emphasize that with the current state of the art there are drawbacks to education that is completely virtual.

The shutdown also has increased the existing achievement gap between children from well-educated families and those from less-educated families. We already have, under regular conditions, a “slide” in skills and knowledge after summer vacation. That summer slide hurts children from less well-educated households the most. We know from a Canadian study that prolonged teacher strikes (say, four weeks) can dramatically reduce student performance, particularly in math. The effects of the lockdown will be worse than the summer slide.

Because of the lockdown, a study from Brown University’s Annenberg Institute shows, students will begin the 2020-21 school year with about 70% of what they should have learned in reading this year and with less than half of what they should have learned in math. The loss in math will be even worse in lower grades.

Those who are worried about re-opening shouldn’t be panicked. Multiple studies have shown that the overwhelming majority of children under 16 are at low risk for contracting the virus. If K-12 students do get it, they typically have mild cases. The vast majority of U.S. teachers also are under the age where they are considered high risk for getting Covid-19, as has been pointed out by number-crunching historian Guy de la Bédoyère.

Children have been super-spreaders for some diseases (such as the flu), but not Covid-19, according to the Swiss health ministry and a report from Australia. Many countries in Europe and elsewhere already have re-opened their schools. This has not resulted in any notable increase in Covid-19 cases among students, parents or staff.

There is, however, a new, very rare childhood respiratory disease (multi-system inflammatory syndrome) that seems to be associated with coronavirus. The key is detecting these rare cases, not letting them divert us from re-opening.

The school lockdown has been a grievous error. We now must find ways to live with the consequences. Children should return to their classrooms now if their school has its protective practices worked out and attend make-up classes in brick and mortar buildings during the summer. They should be given tests to see where their learning needs to be re-started. Many may have to repeat this past year’s grade next fall.

Children have only one childhood in which to master skills and knowledge so they can fulfill their potential. Contrasting the tiny public-health risks with the devastating educational deprivation, it is imperative that public officials let America’s children return to school now."

Where are the deaths? The drum beat to halt the reopenings gets louder by the day. It should be resisted

By Heather Mac Donald.
"The coronavirus doomsayers could not even wait until the fall for the apocalyptic announcements of the dreaded second wave. Because the red states recklessly loosened their lockdowns, we are now told, the US is seeing a dangerous spike in coronavirus cases. ‘EXPERTS SKETCH GLOOMY PICTURE OF VIRUS SPREAD: FAUCI TELLS OF “DISTURBING” WAVE, WITH A VACCINE MONTHS AWAY,’ read the front-page lead headline in the New York Times on Wednesday. ‘VIRUS SPREAD AKIN TO “FOREST FIRE”’ read another front page headline in the Los Angeles Times on Monday, quoting Michael Osterholm, one of the media’s favorite public health experts. Osterholm had told NBC’s Meet the Press: ‘I’m actually of the mind right now — I think this is more like a forest fire. I don’t think that this is going to slow down.’

The ‘this’ is an uptick in daily new cases from 19,002 on June 9 to 38,386 on June 24. The high to date in new daily cases was on April 24 — 39,072. Since April 24, the daily case count started declining, then began rising again after around June 9. What virtually every fear-mongering story on America’s allegedly precarious situation leaves out, however, is the steadily dropping daily death numbers — from a high of 2,693 on April 21 to 808 on June 24. That April high was driven by New York City and its environs; those New York death numbers have declined, but they have not been replaced by deaths in the rest of the country. This should be good news. Instead, it is no news.

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The New York Times put three reporters on a full-page article on Texas, published June 25 under the headline ‘AS NEW CASES SOAR, THE GOVERNOR FACES FALLOUT FROM A RUSH TO REOPEN.’ The story never mentioned coronavirus deaths. Texas’s daily death count has bounced around since early May without a sharp rise — a high of 63 new deaths on May 21, 42 on June 24. Arizona, another state facing media contempt, finally beat its earlier high of 67 deaths on May 8 with 79 deaths on June 24. Between those two dates, however, the curve was steady. The Arizona mortalities are concentrated on Indian reservations and to a lesser extent around the Mexican border.

In May, Georgia was the main target of expert contempt for its allegedly premature reopening. Since then, the media have gone silent, due to the state’s truly discouraging downward daily death toll from a high of 119 on April 7, long before the reopenings, to 10 on June 24.

There are no crises in hospital capacity anywhere in the country. Nursing homes, meat-packing plants, and prisons remain the main sources of new infections. Half the states are seeing cases decline or hold steady. Case counts are affected by more testing; the positive infection rate captured by testing is declining. The current caseload is younger, which is a good thing. The more people who have been infected and who recover, the more herd immunity is created. Meanwhile, daily deaths from heart disease and cancer — about 3,400 a day combined — go ignored in the press.

But the drum beat to halt the still far too tentative reopenings gets louder by the day. It should be resisted. The lockdowns were a mistake the first time around; to reimpose them would be disastrous for any remaining hope of restoring our economy. The damage that has been done to people’s livelihoods and future prosperity will continue to outweigh the damage done by the coronavirus. The only vaccine against poverty and resulting despair is a robust economy."