This paper provides the first empirical examination of the impact of
federal and state "Pattern-or-Practice" investigations on crime and
policing. For investigations that were not preceded by "viral" incidents
of deadly force, investigations, on average, led to a statistically
significant reduction in homicides and total crime. In stark contrast,
all investigations that were preceded by "viral" incidents of deadly
force have led to a large and statistically significant increase in
homicides and total crime. We estimate that these investigations caused
almost 900 excess homicides and almost 34,000 excess felonies. The
leading hypothesis for why these investigations increase homicides and
total crime is an abrupt change in the quantity of policing activity. In
Chicago, the number of police-civilian interactions decreased by almost
90% in the month after the investigation was announced. In Riverside
CA, interactions decreased 54%. In St. Louis, self-initiated police
activities declined by 46%. Other theories we test such as changes in
community trust or the aggressiveness of consent decrees associated with
investigations -- all contradict the data in important ways.
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