Earth Day’s Bad Bet Against Humanity

The Malthusian mind does not see the human capacity to cooperate, trade, discover, invent, and adapt

By Marian L. Tupy of Cato. Excerpts:

"Malthus had already lost his main argument before his essay even appeared in print. Between 1700 and 1798, the population of England rose from 5.2 million to 8.44 million, an increase of 62.3 percent. Over the same period, nominal GDP per person rose from 12.37 British pounds to 23.97 pounds, an increase of 93.8 percent. The nominal price of a four-pound loaf of bread, a staple that fed much of the poor, rose from 5.2 pence to 7.4 pence, or 42.3 percent. Because incomes rose much faster than the price of bread, the latter became 36.2 percent more abundant, not less."

"Human beings are not trapped in the same ecological logic as bacteria in a dish or buffalo on a plain. We exchange with one another. We build institutions. We create tools. We improve production methods. We substitute one material for another. We grow more from the same soil—sometimes much more. In other words, we create new knowledge."

"Higher prices signal a problem. Those higher prices then encourage knowledge creation, and new knowledge leads to greater abundance."

"The Simon Abundance Index, which Dr. Gale L. Pooley and I publish every year on Earth Day, is named after Julian Simon. It is a deliberate continuation of the quantitative analysis of the relationship between population growth and resource abundance that Simon’s bet with Ehrlich began. Unlike Simon and Ehrlich, who measured the abundance of resources in inflation-adjusted dollars, we look at “time prices.” Money prices are distorted by inflation and disputed deflators. Time prices solve that problem by dividing a good’s money price by hourly income, showing how long a person must work to buy it. They capture both falling prices and rising wages, require no inflation adjustment, and allow comparisons across countries and centuries. Time is universal, cannot be printed, and reflects the real cost people pay: hours of life. Time prices provide a clearer, simpler, and more meaningful measure of resource abundance than money prices for ordinary people."

 

"By this measure, the last 45 years have been a rout for the pessimists. The 2026 report says that the Simon Abundance Index stood at 636.4 in 2025, up from a base of 100 in 1980. That means Earth was 536.4 percent more abundant in 2025 than in 1980. All 50 commodities, including fuels, such as crude oil, coal, and natural gas, food, such as chicken, beef, and lamb, and metals, such as aluminum, copper, and gold (yes, even gold!), in the dataset were more abundant in 2025 than they were in 1980. The global abundance of resources increased at a compound annual rate of 4.2 percent, doubling about every 17 years. In the 42 countries tracked by the report—accounting for 85.9 percent of global gross domestic product and 66.3 percent of the world’s population—none saw lower resource abundance in 2025 than in 1980. That is not what a species trapped in Malthus’ arithmetic is supposed to produce.

The mechanics of that gain matter. Between 1980 and 2025, time prices for the 50 commodities fell by an average of 70.9 percent. What required an hour of work in 1980 required about 18 minutes in 2025. The same hour of work that bought one unit of a typical commodity in 1980 bought 3.44 units in 2025. That is a 244 percent increase in personal resource abundance. At the same time, the world population grew by 85 percent, from 4.44 billion to 8.21 billion. Put those two changes together and you get the index’s central finding: For every 1 percent increase in global population, population-level resource abundance grew by about 6.3 percent. Resources growing at a faster pace than the population is what Pooley and I call superabundance. It is the opposite of Malthus’ conjecture that each additional person leaves less for everyone else.

The critics sometimes retreat to complaining about the short-term noise, as though any temporary spike in prices confirms the Malthusian creed. Our report addresses that, too. In 2025, 27 commodities became more abundant, and 23 became less abundant. The abundance of oranges rose the most, by 65.6 percent, while coconut oil’s abundance fell the most, by 36.3 percent. But commodity markets always swing because weather changes, disease hits crops, wars disrupt transport, and investment arrives late or early. Simon never argued that every price falls every year in a straight line. He argued that scarcity signals provoke adjustment. A temporary setback is not a vindication of Malthus. It is often the first stage of a correction. That is why the long trend matters more than the annual changes.

Our findings do not show that pollution is imaginary or that every environmental question has been solved. It has not. But environmental problems should be addressed as side effects of human flourishing, not as evidence that human flourishing itself is a mistake. The Earth Day mentality blurred that distinction. It converted planetary stewardship into misanthropy. It taught millions to look at a growing population and see only a burden, never a contribution. It treated the human animal as uniquely destructive when, in fact, people are the only animals who can recognize ecological damage and fix it. It is new knowledge—human knowledge—that gives societies the capacity to clean rivers, regulate toxins, build sewage systems, improve fuel efficiency, and move from dirtier technologies to cleaner ones. A poor society burns what it can find and dumps what it cannot manage. A rich society can afford scrubbers, pipelines, wastewater treatment, research labs, and better rules.

The green extremists often speak as though abundance is the disease, when in fact abundance is usually what makes environmental improvement possible. And so, despite half a century of doomsaying, the Earth is not collapsing under the weight of humanity. It is supporting far more people who can command far more resources with far less labor than their predecessors could. That is not the picture of a planet in terminal decline. It is the picture of a planet made more habitable by the one species clever enough to improve it. The Earth is not a museum piece. It is a working planet inhabited by learning beings who desire and are entitled to flourish." 

Quantitative easing and the Fed’s free lunch problem

By Steve Swedberg of CEI. Excerpt:

"QE operates primarily through asset price channels, which means that it compresses risk premia and increases market responsiveness to central bank communication. This can create artificially elevated asset prices, encourage greater risk-taking during periods of accommodation, and also increase financial system exposure.

Over time, this weakens the informational role of prices. Capital allocation becomes increasingly shaped by policy-driven conditions instead of market-based signals. That shift can reduce the efficiency of investment, thereby directing resources less consistently to their most productive uses.

Because productivity is the primary driver of long-run growth, wages, and economic resilience, even incremental distortions in capital allocation can weigh on the economy’s underlying performance over time. What begins as a stabilization tool can, if sustained, alter the structure of financial decision-making.

Setting the stage for the hard part

Against this backdrop, balance sheet reduction is a means of re-establishing clearer price discovery and restoring policy space for future downturns. It is a step toward rebalancing the role of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet in monetary policy. QE has altered financial markets in ways that persist well beyond the crisis it was meant to address. Sustained intervention weakens the role of market signals and makes financial conditions more reliant on policy-driven forces. As these effects become embedded in market behavior, stepping back from QE becomes more difficult. The central challenge is whether the balance sheet can be reduced without severe consequences."

Yale Takes Itself to Reform School

A faculty study agrees with many of academia’s critics, believe it or not

WSJ editorial. Excerpts:

"the critique: rising tuition that prices out the middle class; an explosion in bureaucracy that steals resources from instruction; runaway grade inflation; an opaque admissions process that prizes race, gender and identity over achievement; disdain for America’s founding and its abiding principles; and a largely left-wing monoculture that discourages honest (or any) debate, among other sins."

"Yale’s report by an internal Committee on Trust in Higher Education treats those criticisms with respect and in many cases agrees with them."

"Trump. They essentially agree with the criticism about rising costs, admissions that lack transparency, and the failure to support free speech on campus and genuine academic freedom." 

Police Chiefs Allegedly Faked Robberies in $5,000-a-Pop Visa Fraud Scheme

For nearly a decade, four Louisiana lawmen and a Subway shop owner manufactured phony crime reports to help foreign nationals stay in the U.S., prosecutors say

By Joe Barrett of The WSJ. Excerpts:

"In a case still winding through court, federal officials allege the men spent nearly 10 years manufacturing false crime reports as part of a visa-fraud scheme. The operation netted the officers $5,000 per “victim” and helped hundreds of foreign nationals secure U visas—a status that allows certain crime victims to remain in the U.S., Van Hook said."

"The center of the scheme, authorities said, was Chandrakant “Lala” Patel, the friendly owner of a Subway and other small businesses. Patel, himself a U visa recipient, would allegedly connect with crime “victims” looking to stay in the U.S."

"He would then turn to one of the law-enforcement officials to draw up paperwork for crimes that never happened"

"The officers would generate false reports and swear in writing that the people named were legitimate crime victims"

"For years, it worked, authorities said. Investigators with the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services spurred the multiagency probe in July 2024 after uncovering a pattern of inconsistencies in U-visa applications."

"Hundreds reportedly obtained U visas through the scheme, and Louisiana isn’t alone."

"Earlier this month, a federal grand jury in Boston indicted 10 Indian nationals for allegedly staging convenience-store holdups in Massachusetts and elsewhere to secure U visas. A bogus robber and getaway driver would appear to rob the clerk or owner at gunpoint, then flee, authorities said. Minutes later, the clerk would call police and present security-camera footage as evidence."

Also see Five Things to Know About the Visa Fraud Case Shaking Small-Town Lousiana: Prosecutors say the little-known U visa is at the heart of an alleged scheme. 

A Minnesota Mining Liberation Act

The GOP overturns a Biden rule that banned resource development

WSJ editorial. Excerpts:

"a Biden public land order that withdrew some 225,500 acres of land in the Superior National Forest in northern Minnesota from mining and other resource development."

"Expanding domestic critical mineral development ought to be a bipartisan cause as China seeks to weaponize its control of the supply chain. The Duluth Complex beneath Minnesota’s Superior National Forest boasts nearly eight billion tons of critical minerals" 

‘Feed the People!’ Review: In Praise of the Supermarket

Eating locally grown meat and vegetables is a nice aspiration, but it’s no way to get a satisfying meal in the winter.

By Daniel Akst. He reviews the book Feed the People! Why Industrial Food Is Good and How to Make It Even Better by Jan Dutkiewicz and Gabriel N. Rosenberg. Excerpts:

"There is no shortage of access to Brussels sprouts; people simply prefer to eat the wrong things. Local is fine, but not if you live in Chicago and want good produce in winter. Oh, and if you’re on a tight budget, Walmart is your best bet for healthy victuals."

"nostalgia for the food culture of our grandparents overlooks the prevalence of rickets, pellagra and food-poisoning in those days, to say nothing of hunger. Nor do the authors believe processed food is inherently evil. They disdain raw milk as dangerous and ask instead that we appreciate the role of pasteurization and fortified bread"

"urban community gardens, those itty-bitty lots where neighbors grow snap peas and the like, don’t amount to a hill of beans. “Qualitatively invaluable, quantitatively valueless,” they write."

"nobody should call our food system “broken”"

"the claim “offers no real vision of a better future and only vague gestures at systemic change.”"

"a vast modern society can only be fed safely and affordably by means of an efficient, industrial-scale food-production apparatus"

"pleasure deserves to be considered"

See this related post: Stop Worrying, and Learn to Love Industrial Food. 

Here is the beginning:

See We Shouldn’t Want to Eat Like Our Great-Great-Grandparents by Dr. Dutkiewicz and Dr. Rosenberg are the authors of the forthcoming book “Feed the People: Why Industrial Food Is Good and How to Make It Even Better.” From The NY Times.

America Loses Its Will to Work

From the War on Poverty to ‘quiet quitting,’ we’ve stopped appreciating the value of honest labor

By Barton Swaim. Excerpts:

"Did the “war” bring victory? On the one hand, today’s poor live vastly more prosperous lives by any material measure than the poor of the 1960s. Talk of citizens living over or under a “poverty line” is meaningless, Mr. Eberstadt shows (Nicholas Eberstadt of the American Enterprise Institute), the de facto line having risen so dramatically upward—a fact that has little to do with government transfer payments and almost everything to do with rapid economic growth in the postwar period."

"Three decades after the War on Poverty began, congressional Republicans passed, and a Democratic president signed, the most sweeping reform yet made to America’s welfare state. The Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 conditioned the most important forms of direct welfare payments on employment or the search for employment. Opponents predicted disaster. New York Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan, formerly a critic of America’s welfare state, predicted that his colleagues who voted for the bill would “take this disgrace to their graves.” In fact, the reform succeeded. It moved millions off welfare rolls and into the labor market."

"The law mainly reformed Aid to Families With Dependent Children, which it renamed Temporary Assistance for Needy Families. But expansions and liberalizations of other safety-net programs in succeeding years have negated the gains made by the 1996 law."

"We’ve known for years about the slow flight of working-age men from gainful employment. Mr. Eberstadt’s “Men Without Work” (2016) documents in painful detail the moral and psychological costs of men leaving the labor force since the mid-1960s. New and frightening is the phenomenon of “disconnection” among the young, both male and female. About 1 in 7 Americans 18 to 24, according to a recent Rand study, are neither working nor looking for work. Many young people support a “universal basic income”—a government payment to every American, regardless of income or employment status."