The "Great Awokening" Had a Strong Upper-Class Accent

From Marco M. Aviña.

Abstract 

"Recent scholarship hails rising racial liberalism among white liberals as a racial reckoning and even a “Great Awokening.” I find that affluent white liberals led these changes. I develop a status-signaling account in which members of this group, embedded in dense, politically homogeneous social environments, face competing reputational and gatekeeping incentives to express alignment with racial equality in principle but not in policy. I leverage the murder of George Floyd and the ensuing Black Lives Matter protests as a focusing event when anti-racist norms surged. Using regression-discontinuity-in-time and event-study designs on national public opinion surveys and local public meeting transcripts, I show that post-Floyd movement was concentrated among high-income white liberals, centered on symbolic engagement rather than material policy commitments—whether universalistic or group-targeted—and short-lived. Finally, I provide evidence consistent with this account: post-Floyd, an income gap emerges in implicit bias testing, a form of self-monitoring, but not in implicit bias scores, which are less amenable to impression management. These findings complicate narratives of racial progress and recast the “Great Awokening” as recognitional politics without commensurate redistribution, consistent with concerns about elite capture in identity politics."

Capitalism does a far better job than socialism of feeding people.

A tweet from Chris Freiman. 

 

Lessons for Anna Paulina Luna (on farm policy)

Why would a Florida Republican stand up for an overbearing California farm rule?

By Kimberley A. Strassel. Excerpt:

"Where to start unpacking? Several GOP offices tried to do just that in the forum. One office began by (politely) setting Ms. Luna’s office straight on basic facts: Under this fix, California can still regulate its own agricultural practices. Also, the Supreme Court in its Proposition 12 decision said several times that Congress has “considerable power to regulate interstate commerce and preempt contrary state laws.”

That office then patiently provided a refresher in Federalism 101, explaining why California’s initiative is the opposite of states’ rights, since it doesn’t concern itself with only California. It imposes its mandate on 49 other states, none of whose citizens had any vote, or any recourse, through California’s process. They might have added that California has been using this trick—flexing its markets to impose national rule, under the perversion of “states’ rights”—with increasing boldness for decades. Republicans are supposed to understand such basic stuff.

The same office also tried to impart basic economics. It noted that the producers most able to swallow California’s mandate costs are giant concerns, like “Chinese-owned Smithfield.” Those hardest hit are U.S. farms and ranches, which are being pushed out of the market. It provided Ms. Luna’s office with U.S. Department of Agriculture data, estimating that the cost for pork producers of complying is about $3,500 to $4,500 a sow, one reason 12% of small pork operations have exited since Proposition 12. It further noted the demonstrated rise in consumer prices (especially in California) since the initiative’s passage.

Ms. Luna’s staffer said he “appreciated” the “viewpoints”—before banging on anew about “state authority.” California voters have a right to decide what “consumer” products are sold in their state. They should have “choice.” Another catchy word, if again totally backward, since California eliminated everyone’s “choice”—and unnecessarily. As one GOP office noted, there is an easier, freer, less costly answer. California consumers can exercise choice via what they buy. Under Congress’s new fix, morally superior Californians are free to choose to buy only costly, grass-fed California-produced chops, leaving on the shelves all the cheaper, yummier pork for the hoi polloi."

Charges of a Covid Coverup

The Morens indictment reveals an effort to hide facts about the U.S. role

WSJ editorial. Excerpts:

"the facts in the indictment, which say he [David Morens] intentionally sought to obfuscate the NIH role in funding the nonprofit EcoHealth Alliance, which may have contributed to the virus leaking from a Chinese lab."

"The NIH last decade provided some $8 million in grants to EcoHealth, some of which funded the Wuhan Institute of Virology’s gain-of-function virus experiments."

"Between February and March 2020, Dr. Morens and a co-conspirator—whom press reports say is Mr. Daszak—co-authored articles arguing that the virus most likely emerged from the wild."

"On June 17, 2021, the indictment says, he warned Mr. Daszak and “others” that he had received a document production request by five Senators investigating the virus’s origins. Dr. Morens assured his correspondents that he had “retained very few documents on these matters.” Public officials are required by federal law and instructed to retain all such documents." 

You Can’t Trust ‘Climate Economics’

Governments, banks and other institutions have based policies on models unconnected to reality

By Roger Pielke Jr. Excerpts:

"Nature in December retracted one of the most influential climate economics papers of the past decade. The paper, by Maximilian Kotz, Anders Levermann and Leonie Wenz, claimed that unmitigated climate change would cost the global economy $38 trillion a year (in 2005 international dollars) by midcentury." 

"The authors acknowledged that its errors were “too substantial” for a correction."

"The retraction, however, isn’t a one-off. It revealed a crack that runs much deeper into the foundation of climate research."

"Can researchers actually measure how climate affects the economy from the historical record?"

"no"

"Federal agencies . . . estimate the “social cost of carbon” when assessing the costs and benefits of proposed environmental policies. This framework has shaped regulations governing appliance standards, pipeline permitting and vehicle emissions."

"the method underlying this subfield of economics can’t do what researchers claim it can. The problem . . . is that the statistical procedure strips out nearly everything that would allow researchers to identify a climate signal, then mistakes the residual noise for that signal. Lumping together countries with similar average temperatures but entirely different institutions, histories and natural resources and then calculating a single damage relationship for all of them doesn’t work; it describes the average but fails to describe a single real place on earth accurately."

"there’s no way out of this methodological predicament; the future effects of climate change are irreducibly uncertain"

"researchers built many of their climate projections on the back of a hypothetical standardized scenario called Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5—a vision of the future which required coal consumption to quintuple by 2100 based on assumptions about future energy use. Those assumptions have already diverged sharply from actual energy trends, and we know today that the scenario is implausibly extreme."

"many scientists continue to emphasize RCP8.5 in climate research"

"Projections of flood damage, heat mortality, agricultural disruption and wildfire risk have rested on an implausible baseline that describes an imaginary, modeled future."

"An insurance company modified a hurricane loss data set by starting from my team’s carefully collected data. Many of those modifications have no documentation and no basis in research."

"papers that have used the corrupted data set remain in the literature today." 

What Happens When Europeans Find Out How Poor They Are?

The Continent trails far behind U.S. economic output. Politics is bound to catch up sooner or later

By Joseph C. Sternberg. Excerpts:

"per capita gross domestic product: $94,400 in the U.S., according to the International Monetary Fund, compared with $65,300 in Germany, $61,000 in the U.K. and $52,000 in France."

"From a fairly narrow edge throughout the 1980s, the gap widened a bit in the 1990s. Since 2007, however, European per capita incomes have more or less stagnated while the U.S. has enjoyed another growth spurt."

"Switzerland amps up its per-capita GDP to $126,000 by attracting finance and pharma."

"The wealth skewing American per capita economic data is a result of innovation and entrepreneurship. Europe lacks America’s per capita output not because it lacks American tech companies and billionaires but because it lacks American-style productivity growth capable of creating tech companies and billionaires in Europe."

"On average, [British] respondents thought that if the U.K. were a state, it would be the seventh-richest in terms of per-capita GDP, behind the likes of New York and California. The reality is that Britain is toward the bottom of the table, roughly on the level of Mississippi." 

"Using the PPP metric, U.S. GDP per capita is $94,400, Germany’s is $76,800, Britain’s is $67,600, and France’s is $68,600."

"That means, broadly, that a nominal per capita income of $61,000 in the U.K. allows a Briton to consume the same amount of goods and services that would cost $67,600 in America. But that’s merely a different way of stating Europe’s problem. Europe’s economies look healthier in PPP terms to the extent a lower price level allows households to stretch their euros and pounds further. Those lower prices reflect Europe’s lower productivity. Meanwhile nominal GDP expresses Europe’s ability to consume global resources, which is lagging." 

Taxes make gas more expensive in other countries

See Why Gasoline Is So Much Cheaper in the U.S. Than Overseas by Chao Deng and Alana Pipe of The WSJ. Excerpts:

"American consumers paid an average $3.64 a gallon in March, with only about 60 cents of that made up of federal and state taxes. The average hit $4 a gallon at the end of that month."

"In most places in Europe, tax composes 50%-60% of the retail price of fuel"

"Germans paid an average of $8.75 a gallon in March, more than half of which stemmed from value-added taxes and fuel excise duties."

"In Mexico, gas averaged $5.07 a gallon in March, of which nearly $2 was tax."