Monday, June 15, 2026

Why the ‘Hormuz Shock’ Isn’t the ’70s All Over Again

Things would be a lot worse absent our current energy diversity

Letter to The WSJ.

"Daniel Yergin’s analysis of the worldwide oil market in his op-ed “Energy Markets Limit the Hormuz Shock” (June 3) is right on target. Diversification of energy sources, together with normal supply and demand responses, is limiting the Hormuz shock. We are experiencing pain, but this is clearly not, as many have claimed, a historic energy crisis. Today’s oil prices, adjusting for inflation, are more than 15% below their peak four years ago, indicating that markets worked then and are working now.

Two implications follow. First, whatever Iran’s degree of control over the strait going forward, its incentive will be to keep oil flowing. Continued restrictions on shipments through the strait will erode Iran’s future influence on energy markets, much as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ clout diminished after the shocks in the 1970s. Second, the priority must be eliminating Iran’s nuclear capability rather than reopening the strait: Closing the strait is causing a temporary energy shock, whereas a nuclear-armed Iran would pose a permanent global threat."

Edward A. Snyder

William S. Beinecke professor of economics and management

Yale University

Related post:

Energy Markets Limit the Hormuz Shock (2026) 

The Food Stamp Rolls Decline—Hurray

GOP reforms are paying off as more recipients work or volunteer

WSJ editorial. Excerpts:

"the food-stamp program is now returning to the levels of the bad old days of . . . 2019. Some 42.8 million Americans were enrolled in the program in January 2025, which is more than 12% of the U.S. population. The figure in January 2026 was 38.5 million. The social safety net scholar Angela Rachidi notes the program was “due for a decline” after elevated enrollment during the pandemic."

"those who receive help should hold up their end of the social contract—and work, train or volunteer at least 20 hours a week. That’s the work requirement in the program for able-bodied adults without children."

"those who leave the program because of the expanded work requirement do so for one of two reasons. One: Their earnings increase. That’s good news. Two: They refuse either to work, look for a job, or volunteer at a place like the local library part-time."

"The Agriculture Department ferreted data from 28 states and says it found nearly 186,000 dead recipients. Some 355,000 recipients were enrolled in more than one state." 

A ‘Millionaire’s Tax’ Is a Tax on Main Street

Wealth taxes like Hawaii’s disproportionately fall on small-business owners

Letter to The WSJ

"Your editorial “The Tax Collector’s Paradise” (May 28) is right to warn that Hawaii’s new “millionaire’s tax” won’t stop with high-income earners. In reality, higher income tax rates often disproportionately fall on small-business owners whose companies are organized as S corporations, partnerships, LLCs and other pass-through entities.

The consequences extend beyond individual taxpayers. A Stanford University study examining 30 years of Census Bureau data found that increases in individual income tax rates led to job losses, business relocations and even business closures among pass-through firms. Those are real-world costs borne by workers, families and local communities.

Small-business owners feel these pressures firsthand—and the data confirms that. A 2024 survey from the Job Creators Network Foundation found that more than one in four have considered relocating to a state with lower taxes and less regulatory burdens. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve research has found that tax increases make it more difficult for small businesses operating on tight margins to cover expenses, including payroll.

When lawmakers raise income taxes, they aren’t simply taxing income. They are changing incentives for entrepreneurs, investors and employers. Hawaii’s leaders may discover that the people who create jobs and grow businesses have more options than some politicians assume.

Policy matters, and Americans will continue to vote with their feet.

Taylor Gage

Citizens for Free Enterprise

Sunday, June 14, 2026

We’re Preparing for the Wrong AI Labor Crisis

Mass unemployment is unlikely. AI will reorganize the white-collar corporate workforce, not destroy it.

By Stephen Lewarne. He is a professor of economics at Franciscan University. Excerpts:

"the notion that the economy faces mass technological unemployment doesn’t fit the evidence"

"the broader market continues to show relatively stable aggregate demand for labor. In March, the unemployment rate stood at 4.3%, close to both the Federal Reserve’s estimate of long-run normal unemployment and Congressional Budget Office projections for the coming decade. Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 178,000 jobs during the month, while healthcare added 76,000 jobs and averaged roughly 29,000 new jobs a month over the prior year."

"U.S. entry-level job postings have fallen roughly 35% since January 2023, with highly AI-exposed entry-level postings declining more than 40%."

"Employer surveys indicate a substantial shift away from GPA-based screening and toward skills-based hiring. Employers increasingly emphasize demonstrated competencies, project-based experience and practical problem-solving abilities." 

[there is] "a labor-market transition more complicated than conventional automation narratives suggest." 

The Road to AI State Socialism

Bernie Sanders sees Trump industrial policy and decides to raise the government stakes

WSJ editorial. Excerpts:

"Mr. Sanders wants to force companies to hand over half of their equity to the government."

"this would be a government expropriation. It would violate the Fifth Amendment’s prohibition on government taking property without just compensation. To pay this tax, companies would have to issue new shares to the government diluting current shareholders. Or they could buy back half their shares from private investors and hand them to the government."

"One model is China’s state-owned enterprises, which are an albatross on its economy. Political favoritism and government interventions have led to economic inefficiencies. Hence China’s partially state-owned Semiconductor Manufacturing International trails TSMC and Samsung in chip fabrication." 

The Big Bob Packwood Tax Reform

The Oregon senator, who died Saturday at 93, closed loopholes and cut the top rate to 28%

By Arthur Laffer and Stephen Moore. Excerpts:

"the Tax Reform Act of 1986" [led to the] "lowering the highest personal income-tax rate—which had been 70% in 1981—to 28%. The corporate rate was slashed from 46% to 34%. The number of individual tax brackets went from 14 to two (28% and 15%)."

"nearly every Democrat voted for a 28% tax rate. Now many Democrats in Congress want to soak the rich with income tax rates as high as 50%, 60% or 70%"

"The law, on top of the 1981 Reagan tax cuts, made America a magnet for capital from around the globe. It helped launch the greatest period of wealth creation in world history over the succeeding 40 years. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 1,808.35 on Oct. 22, 1986, the day Reagan signed the law. Today it is over 50,000.

Tax revenue exploded with lower tax rates. The share of taxes paid by the wealthy rose as they lost their favorite tax shelters and instead put their money to productive use. Economist Martin Feldstein, who served as chairman of the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers (1982-84), wrote on these pages in 2011 that “actual experience after 1986 showed an enormous rise in taxes paid, particularly by those who experienced the greatest reductions in marginal tax rates.”"

"nearly every other nation followed suit by slashing tax rates" 

Saturday, June 13, 2026

When New Housing Pays for Old Infrastructure

Impact fees that shift costs from existing homeowners to new ones has a feel of generational and class theft

By Scott Beyer of The Independent Institute

"Across the United States, local governments are confronting a problem that has accumulated for decades: aging infrastructure with massive deferred maintenance. Water lines, sewer plants, roads, schools, and more need modernization and sometimes replacement. In theory, the costs should be shared broadly among those who use the infrastructure. But increasingly, jurisdictions solve these budget shortfalls by charging “impact fees” and other development extractions from new construction. This amounts to an unfair shifting of costs away from existing homeowners to new ones, in a dynamic that smells of generational and class theft.

Impact fees were first conceived as a rational planning tool. If a new subdivision required an additional water main, traffic signal, or elementary school, it made sense for the development creating that growth to fund the incremental expansion on a pro-rata basis. That logic remains sound.

But over time, government agencies have gotten carried away with impact fees and similar policies (such as proffers and special assessments). The whole concept has drifted beyond paying for marginal growth-related costs, and become a piggybank for decades of underinvestment in infrastructure that mainly serves current residents.

Tracking down data is hard, given that fees are fragmented across various schedules, jurisdictions, and project types. But the costs to developers and homebuilders, who pass them onto purchasers, are very real.

One example is in San Diego and surrounding Southern California cities. Cumulative impact fees tied there to schools, transportation, parks, utilities, and affordable housing mandates have in some cases veered into six figures per home before construction even begins. School impact fees alone currently run $5.38 per square foot for residential construction within the city’s Unified School District (which is an odd way to calculate it, since larger homes don’t necessarily produce more school-aged children – often it’s the opposite).

State policies contribute to this dynamic. For example, Proposition 13 limits property tax growth by tying annual assessments to a property’s initial purchase price. This means long-time homeowners benefit from low tax burdens and dramatic home appreciation, while buyers inherit escalating infrastructure costs that get embedded into the price of newly-constructed housing.

A similar controversy emerged in Loudoun County during the suburban boom coming from Washington, D.C. The county extracted proffers from developers in exchange for rezonings, often on a case-by-case basis that had the feel of bribery. These proffers funded road widenings, intersections, schools, parks, libraries, and public safety facilities, adding an estimated $30,000-$50,000 per unit – or in many cases much more.

For context, the median home price in Loudoun County is around $800,000 and the property tax rate is $0.805 per $100 in assessed value. This means that the typical homeowner there is paying around $6,400/year in property taxes, far less than the impact fees that new homeowners pay. It should be noted that these new homeowners, upon moving in, are then required to also pay property taxes, rendering their impact fees a sort of duplicative entry tax.

In Austin and the broader Central Texas region, explosive population growth has strained water and wastewater systems. A Texas A&M study found that the city’s development fees averaged $41,303 per housing unit for infill development, which is 2.5x higher than the Central Texas average.

Such examples abound throughout America. I’ve found that fees are generally highest in areas where NIMBYism is strong; and where new development is viewed as a quality-of-life infringement rather than an economic development benefit. Fees are also frequently used as a redistribution tool, with wealthier districts funding poorer ones.

The common thread in any of these cases is political convenience. Raising taxes broadly on existing residents is unpopular, as is increasing utility bills for all users. But charging developers and future homeowners is easy—the former is a boogeyman that garners no public sympathy, while the latter is an “invincible” constituency that has no organizing ability prior to moving into a locale.

The result is an unequal arrangement in which Gen Z and Millennial households—who account for nearly half of home purchases but have far lower net worth than older generations—are forced to shoulder disproportionate infrastructure burdens.

A better approach would fund infrastructure through direct user fees and broad-based revenue sources that distribute costs among everyone who benefits from the system. Water and sewer infrastructure should be financed primarily through utility rates tied to usage; roads through fuel taxes, tolls, or mileage-based fees; and stormwater systems by charging properties based on their impervious surface or other impacts. There should also be a clearer distinction between capital improvements that expand system capacity and routine maintenance or replacement of existing infrastructure. The latter should be funded primarily by the residents and businesses already served by those systems, not newcomers.

By blurring these categories and treating new development as a convenient source of revenue, many local governments have shifted infrastructure costs from existing users onto future residents, increasing housing costs and creating an inequitable transfer of financial responsibility from one group to another."