Monday, March 9, 2026

Why Johnny Can’t Read Anything Other Than Pronouns

Schools have become laboratories for esoteric ideological projects, not centers of learning

By Jason L. Riley. Excerpts:

"One of the few bright spots in our education system has been selective-enrollment public high schools, which use standardized tests and other objective measures to determine admissions. Examples include Boston Latin School in Massachusetts, Stuyvesant High School in Manhattan and Thomas Jefferson High School in Alexandria, Va., all of which boast long and proven records of providing a rigorous education for students from all backgrounds. Yet even this successful model is increasingly under attack, and its future is uncertain.

A new study from the Manhattan Institute details efforts in Chicago to eliminate selective public high schools. Much of the Chicago public school system is in shambles. Wirepoints, a government watchdog group, reported last year that the Chicago Public School system operated 53 schools in 2024 where not a single student tested proficient in math, and 17 schools in which no student tested proficient in reading. Mayor Brandon Johnson and other Democrats blame these outcomes on a lack of resources, but spending per pupil has almost doubled since 2017, and teacher pay in the Windy City is among the highest in the nation for large school districts after adjusting for cost of living."

"Critics of selective public schools claim that they serve too few minority students, divert resources from traditional schools, and exacerbate racial and economic achievement gaps. Yet the Manhattan Institute’s assessment found that at least a third of the students at selective high schools in Chicago come from low-income families, and Chicago Public Schools spend thousands more per student on nonselective schools."

Gavin Newsom’s Climate Tax Hike

His regulators are cutting allowances for his tax-and-cap policy

WSJ editorial. Excerpts:

"California’s cap-and-tax policy requires refiners and manufacturers to reduce their CO2 emissions . . .[and] caused manufacturers to shift operations out of the state and raised gasoline prices by an estimated 24 cents a gallon."

"Chevron warned Tuesday that CARB’s (California Air Resources Board) plan (to slash the supply of allowances) could add $1.21 a gallon to California gas prices, which are currently $1.54 higher than the national average."

"plan would cost in-state refineries $5.5 billion to $9 billion over the next decade and “eliminate a significant portion, if not all, of California refiners’ future annual net earnings.”" 

Sunday, March 8, 2026

Tech Has Never Caused a Job Apocalypse. Don’t Bet on It Now.

Neither theory, history nor the latest data suggests a recession driven by AI job dislocation is likely  

By Greg Ip. Excerpts:

"Technological advancements always cost some people their jobs—those whose skills can be easily substituted by tech. But their loss is more than offset through three other channels. The new technology enhances the skills of some survivors, who become more productive and better paid; it helps create new businesses and new jobs; and it makes some stuff cheaper, increasing consumers’ incomes, adjusted for inflation, which can be spent on other stuff, generating yet more jobs."

"The ranks of software developers, widely assumed to be acutely vulnerable to AI, are up 5% in January from a year earlier, a pace largely consistent with the past 23 years."

"The number of computer programmers, who assist developers in ensuring code runs properly, was down slightly in the last year, in line with a secular decline in place for decades. Neither trend shifted much after ChatGPT’s arrival in late 2022."

"In 2024, the median young computer science graduate earned 63% more than the typical young graduate, up from 47% in 2009"

"business spending on software leapt 11% in the fourth quarter of last year from a year earlier, the fastest in nearly three years"

"This . . . is in line with previous technological advances that drive prices down and demand up enough to offset direct job displacement"

"examples include textile manufacturing in the 19th century, and the spread of ATMs in the 1980s."

"As the number of bookkeepers shrank with the introduction of spreadsheet software in the early 1980s, the number of accountants and financial analysts newly empowered by Lotus 1-2-3 and Excel rose even more."

"Employment of 22- to 25-year-olds in the most AI-exposed occupations such as software developers and customer-service agents fell 6% in the three years after the introduction of ChatGPT"

"Radiologists were supposed to lose their jobs to offshoring, and then to AI. They didn’t, because patients and providers like having humans around to explain their medical images. Since Google Translate launched in 2006, the number of human translator and interpreter employees in the U.S. has risen 73%."

"The money employers or consumers save as AI eliminates jobs doesn’t disappear; it gets spent on something else." 

Easter Island environmental degradation was due to colonial intruders not ecocide

See Island at the End of the World’ Review: Faces of Rapa Nui: European explorers landed on Easter Island in the 18th century. Disease and emigration soon followed by Adam Kuper. He is a fellow of the British Academy. He reviewed the book Island at the Edge of the World: The Forgotten History of Easter Island by Mike Pitts. Excerpt:

"Mr. Pitts summarizes the new apocalyptic parable that emerged: “Society collapsed in a fit of war and cannibalism.” Some commentators, such as Jared Diamond, the author of the popular “Guns, Germs, and Steel” (1997), saw a deeper meaning: Could this be our own future if we don’t take care?

Scientists have since established that the degradation of the island was in fact gradual, taking centuries, caused largely by drought, volcanic eruptions and the arrival of the Polynesian rat. Ancient skeletons show no sign of injuries due to war or cannibalism. Mr. Pitts dismisses this ecocide narrative and places the blame for environmental degradation where it belongs: with colonial intruders."

Related posts:

The Mysterious 'Ecocide' Collapse of Easter Island Never Really Happened 

The truth about Easter Island: a sustainable society has been falsely blamed for its own demise 

Was Easter Island (Rapa Nui) The Victim Of Ecocide? Maybe Not 

Resilience, not collapse: What the Easter Island myth gets wrong

New evidence upends contentious Easter Island theory, scientists say 

More People Are Inheriting Their Homes

See In California, About the Only Way to Get a House Is to Inherit One: Nearly one out of every five property transfers last year was made through inheritance, a record for the state and double the national share by Nicole Friedman and Veronica Dagher of The WSJ. Excerpts:

"About 18% of all property transfers in the state last year, representing nearly 60,000 homes, were made through inheritance"

"That share is a record for California in data going back to 1995, up from 12% in 2019. It is also roughly double the national share of 8.8% last year."

There are "tax policies that encourage owners to avoid selling their houses before they die."

"The people who inherit these houses . . .  can sell them and keep the proceeds without having to pay capital-gains taxes."

"Longtime owners pay taxes based on decades-old valuations. New buyers are taxed at much higher current market valuations."

"Federal law allows a $250,000 exclusion ($500,000 for couples) for homeowners selling their primary residences. With many California homes now worth millions, homeowners often have gains that far exceed these limits."

"If the home is inherited, its value for tax purposes resets to its market price on the date of death. For a home that appreciated from $200,000 to $2 million, the heir could save more than $500,000 in federal and state taxes" 

Saturday, March 7, 2026

A Defense of Landlords as Financial Intermediaries

By Jonathan Hofer, Christopher J. Calton, Kristian Fors, Caleb Petitt of The Independent Institute. Excerpt:

"A persistent misconception is that rent simply equals the cost of ownership plus a profit margin. A crucial economic principle is that input costs do not determine prices; the value of outputs determines them. Input costs are important insofar as they affect supply. In a market, rent is determined by supply and demand for housing services, not by a landlord’s costs. The landlord’s cost structure is largely irrelevant to the market-clearing price. 

The difference in monthly costs between owning and renting in large cities can be great. For instance, the typical monthly rent for a two-bedroom apartment in San Francisco can be a few thousand dollars less than the monthly mortgage payments, including principal and interest, for a similar property. This trend is observed in many areas across the United States, especially in regions experiencing rapid growth or facing macroeconomic conditions in which interest rates rise quickly. 

Characterizing landlords as reaping significant profits oversimplifies the situation by failing to account for the broader financial context and the risks landlords face. Successful landlords may make great gains nominally, but the typical yield on a unit is actually quite low. In some states, yield (income generated by the property expressed as a percent of the asset’s cost) can be around 6-7%, but large cities tend to have a lower yield, typically around 2-5%—an amount insufficient to change a renter’s ability to generate wealth. 

While tenants pay a fixed rent, landlords bear unpredictable, non-negotiable costs, such as maintenance. Maintenance can include routine wear and tear, as well as catastrophic repairs or the replacement of costly appliances. Landlords are contractually and, oftentimes, statutorily obligated to maintain the unit’s full “output” value. If the property depreciates, that is another cost absorbed by the landlord and not the tenant. They also have to bear the financial risks of legal compliance, which can include costs related to having tenants, such as rent controls, or general risks, such as insurance. When landlords have negative carry (when monthly rental income falls below the combined costs of debt service, maintenance, and taxes), landlords are effectively subsidizing tenants. That latter point might be obvious, but what may be less obvious is how common negative carry actually is. According to a report by DoorLoop, only “35% of landlords say their rental properties are profitable year after year. This percentage held steady from 2023 to 2024 even as rental prices rose sharply.” and “38% of landlords say their rental properties break even financially (mortgage and expenses) but don’t generate consistent profit.”

A significant and underappreciated advantage for renters is the ability to benefit from a landlord’s historical investment. A landlord who acquired a multi-unit building a decade ago operates on a cost basis, and likely a mortgage interest rate that is no longer available in the current market. Due to the lower entry price, the landlord can accept a lower yield (rent as a percentage of the current property value) than a new buyer could achieve. For those familiar, this can be illustrated by the standard supply-and-demand model: landlords who bought at different prices shift the supply curve to the right, resulting in lower equilibrium rent than if units had to be financed at current prices. 

This creates what might be called a travel-back-in-time effect. Renting from an established landlord allows tenants to access housing at a price point anchored to historical costs, effectively insulating them from the full impact of rising interest rates and price appreciation. For individuals seeking to maximize net worth, the cost of paying a landlord’s overhead can be substantially lower than the opportunity cost of committing a large down payment to an illiquid, concentrated asset.

Economies of scale

Beyond historical cost advantages, scale matters. Landlords, particularly those managing multi-unit developments, generate value through operational efficiencies that single-family homeowners cannot replicate. Research on rental housing economies of scale demonstrates that costs per unit tend to decrease as the number of units increases, due to shared infrastructure, bulk purchasing power, and specialized management. This scale efficiency manifests in several ways. By pooling costs, landlords can lower the price of housing services for tenants. The development costs of new or renovated housing can be reduced through bulk orders with suppliers and vendor consolidation. Renters in multi-unit buildings benefit from shared infrastructure, such as roofs, foundations, and HVAC systems. These shared resources, when calculated per square foot, are significantly more efficient than those in single-family homes.

Creating a Buffer for Renters

By leveraging the historical cost advantage borne by the landlord, renters effectively gain a competitive financial buffer. Renters can secure a similar consumption good, i.e., shelter, at a discount relative to the current frontier cost of a mortgage. The delta between the market rent and the counterfactual homeownership scenario allows renters to use different wealth-generation vehicles. 

That means that renting is not “throwing money away”; rather, it is the purchase of a thing without the attendant risks of over-leverage, illiquidity, and concentrated asset exposure. By assuming the risks of property devaluation, legislative changes, physical depreciation, and liability, landlords enable tenants to allocate capital toward other potentially liquid uses, including seeking higher returns on capital. When that occurs, landlords are not barriers to wealth, but rather, providers of financial flexibility and absorbers of real estate volatility, enabling tenants to maintain optionality. If renters allocate the capital intended for a down payment to a diversified portfolio of equities, they may often achieve returns greater than those of a single property.

Obviously, this relationship is not without trade-offs. Renters face the risk of eviction, rent increases, and limited long-term security. These vulnerabilities can have significant financial and emotional impacts. However, these challenges do not negate the fundamental economic function landlords serves.

Do Landlords Hoard Units? 

Some affordability activists make the claim that landlords are “hoarding” tens of thousands of unoccupied units, such as the oft-cited figure of 60,000–90,000 vacant homes in San Francisco. This is a curious argument and may imply some ignorance of how housing markets, and markets in general, function. Supply and demand never achieve perfect, instantaneous matching; some inventory is always in transition or needs to be called up. High rents and prices in places like San Francisco are the market’s clearest signal of insufficient supply relative to demand, not evidence of deliberate withholding.

Even still, the “vacant units” number is largely a mirage. Census and city data include short-term vacancies, units between tenants, in the process of being sold, renovated, or prepared for re-rental. Many others are unfit for habitation (e.g., severely dilapidated or in need of major repairs), or are simply not rentable or sellable at current market conditions without significant investment. Recent reports show San Francisco’s effective rental vacancy rate (units actually available and ready for occupancy) hovers around 3–5% in 2025–2026, among the lowest in the nation and well below a reasonable benchmark for smooth turnover. While overall reported vacancies include these transitional categories, they don’t represent “hoarded” stock. True long-term deliberate vacancies (e.g., vacation homes and luxury units held empty for speculation) exist but are a tiny fraction, not enough to suppress prices meaningfully.

Some of these activists have proposed an “empty homes tax” to penalize landlords who have vacant units. Such a scheme discourages investment because it erodes a landlord’s margin, as there will inevitably be durations when tenants churn. It may also discourage upkeep, as landlords may avoid taking time to renovate between occupants because that is a period when they would be taxed. 

Even if some curmudgeony owners were trying to “hoard” for profit, ironically, adding substantial new supply would undermine that strategy by increasing competition and capturing those potential gains for different landlords/developers and future residents instead. The real delusion is pretending that vacancies prove abundance when they coexist with skyrocketing costs, precisely because overall long-run supply has failed to keep pace with population and job growth in high-demand areas."

The Hidden Cost of Hard-to-Fire Labor Laws: Why European Firms Don’t Take Risks

By Alex Tabarrok.

"In our textbook, Modern Principles, Tyler and I write:

Imagine how difficult it would be to get a date if every date required marriage? In the same way, it’s more difficult to find a job when every job requires a long-term commitment from the employer.

In two new excellent pieces, Brian Albrecht and Pieter Garicano extend this partial equilibrium aphorism with some general equilibrium reasoning. Here’s Albrecht:

[I]magine there is a surge for Siemens products. Do you hire a ton of workers to fill that demand? No, you’re worried about having to fire them in the future but being stuck until they retire.

But it’s even worse than that…..[suppose Siemens does want to hire] where is Siemens getting those workers from?…Not only is it a problem for Siemens that they won’t be able to fire people down the road, the fact that BMW doesn’t fire anyone means you can’t hire people. 

Garicano has an excellent piece, Why Europe doesn’t have a Tesla, with lots of detail on European labor law:

Under the [German] Protection Against Dismissal Act, the Kündigungsschutzgesetz, redundancies over ten employees must pass a social selection test (Sozialauswahl). Employers cannot choose who leaves: they must rank employees by age, years of service, family maintenance obligations, and degree of disability, and then prioritize dismissing those with the weakest social claim to the job. If someone is dismissed for operational reasons but the company posts a similar job elsewhere, the dismissal is usually invalid.

Disabled employees can be dismissed only with the approval of the Integration Office (Integrationsamt), a public body. The office will weigh the employer’s reasons, whether they have taken sufficient steps to integrate the employee, and whether they could be redeployed elsewhere in the organization. Workers who also become caregivers cannot be dismissed at all for up to two full years after they tell their bosses they fulfill that role.

As a company becomes larger and tries to let more workers go at once these difficulties increase. In many European countries, companies with more than a certain number of workers – 50 in the Netherlands5 in Germany – are obliged to create a works council, which represents employees and, in some countries, must give its approval to decisions the employer wants to make regarding its employees, including layoffs or pay rises or cuts.

…Companies that are allowed to fire someone and can afford to pay the severance costs have to wait and pay additional fees. Collective dismissal procedures in Germany start after 30 departures within a month; once triggered they require further negotiations with the works council, a waiting period, and the creation of a ‘social plan’ with more compensation for departing workers. When Opel shut down its Bochum factory in Germany, it reached a deal with the works council to spend €552 million on severance for the 3,300 affected employees. This included individual payments of up to €250,000 and a €60 million plan to help workers find new jobs.

Now what is the effect of regulations like this? Well obviously the partial equilibrium effect is to reduce hiring but in addition Garicano notes that it changes what sorts of firms are created in the first place. If you are worried about being burdened by expensive dismissal procedures, build a regulated utility with captive government contracts, not a radical startup with a high probability of failure.

Rather than reduce hiring in response to more expensive firing, companies in Europe have shifted activity away from areas where layoffs are likely. European workers are for sure, solid work only. This works well in periods of little innovation, or when innovation is gradual. The continent, however, is poorly equipped for moments of great experimentation.

…Europe’s companies have immense, specialized knowledge [due to retained workforces, AT]. The problems happen when radical innovation is needed, as in the shift from gasoline to electric vehicles. The great makers of electric cars have either been new entrants, like Tesla and BYD, or old ones who have had their insides stripped, like MG.

..If Europe wants a Tesla, or whatever the Tesla of the next decade will turn out to be, it will need a new approach to hiring and firing."