Thursday, May 28, 2026

The corporate tax rate really matters (improvements in aggregate tax competitiveness are positively and significantly associated with real GDP per capita growth)

From Tyler Cowen.

"Three findings emerge. First, improvements in aggregate tax competitiveness are positively and significantly associated with real GDP per capita growth, robust to a wide range of controls. Second, this aggregate effect is driven entirely by the corporate tax pillar; no other component displays a significant growth effect. Third, the corporate tax effect materializes contemporaneously and accumulates over time, with a statistically significant three-year cumulative effect of approximately 0.16 percentage points per one-point improvement in the corporate tax score. These results suggest that the full architecture of the corporate tax system, not merely the headline statutory rate, is what matters for growth.

That is from a recent paper by Michael Christla and Monika Köppl–Turyna." 

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