Perhaps intergenerational mobility has not declined in the United States after all

From Tyler Cowen.

"From the latest American Economic Review:

A large body of evidence finds that relative mobility in the US has declined over the past 150 years. However, long-run mobility estimates are usually based on White samples and therefore do not account for the limited opportunities available for nonwhite families. Moreover, historical data measure the father’s status with error, which biases estimates toward greater mobility. Using linked census data from 1850 to 1940, I show that accounting for race and measurement error can double estimates of intergenerational persistence. Updated estimates imply that there is greater equality of opportunity today than in the past, mostly because opportunity was never that equal. (JEL J15, J62, N31, N32)

That is from Zachary Ward of Baylor University.  If that is true, and it may be, how many popular economics books from the last twenty years need to be tossed out?  How many “intergenerational mobility is declining” newspaper columns and magazine articles?  Ouch.  No single article settles a question, but for now this seems to be the best, most up to date word on the matter.

Here are earlier, less gated copies of the research."