Numbers Don’t Add Up for the Vaccine Pause

Many more lives are at risk than 6 in 6.8 million

From The WSJ.

"Your editorial “The J&J Covid Vaccine Pause” (April 14) doesn’t make the necessary inferences. Six people in 6.8 million vaccinated have had cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST). The “natural” annual incidence of these brain blood clots ranges from two to 16 per million. Using these figures, we would expect between 13 and 109 clots annually in 6.8 million people. Since the vaccine has been available for around six weeks, however, we’d expect between two and 13 clots over this period. Thus, the rate of clots in the vaccinated is similar to the “natural” rate. A U.K. study also shows that a Covid patient’s risk of CVST is 100 times greater than normal and eight-to-10 times that of a vaccinated person. The CDC and FDA may be overreacting.

Richard L. Atkinson, M.D.

Manakin Sabot, Va.

“Informed consent” is missing from the discussion. Rather than pause all J&J vaccinations, present the risks—six in 6.8 million vaccinated, but varying by demographic group—to patients and allow them to make their own decisions. Patients should know that this vaccine comes with an extremely small chance of having a blood clot—not far from its occurrence in the general population without the vaccine. This approach would still allow vaccinations to continue and prevent many more deaths from Covid-19.

Public health and medicine are never perfect. They balance risks and benefits while keeping patients informed of the trade-offs. But we are in a world-wide crisis. Many more lives are at risk than six in 6.8 million.

Scott Wilkinson, M.D.

Birmingham, Mich."