"There is growing concern that the COVID-19 pandemic may have severe,
adverse effects on the health care sector, a sector of the economy that
historically has been somewhat shielded from the business cycle. In this
paper, we study one aspect of this issue by estimating the magnitude of
the COVID-19 pandemic on use of outpatient health services. We use
2010-2020 data from the Outpatient Influenza-like Illness Surveillance
Network (ILINet). Our findings indicate that the COVID-19 pandemic is
associated with about a 67 percent decline in the total number of
outpatient visits per provider by the week of April 12-18th, 2020
relative to the same week in prior years. Effects become apparent
earlier in the pandemic for outpatient visits for non-flu symptoms, but
we find negative effects on outpatient visits for flu symptoms as well."
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