Corona lockdowns terrible for poorer countries

By Bjorn Lomborg.

"Copenhagen Consensus produced the world's first cost-benefit analyses of COVID-19 policies for the African countries Ghana and Malawi.

Here are the benefits and costs for Malawi, in a report done together with the National Planning Commission and the African Institute for Development Policy:



Moderate social distancing will save about 7,000 more lives in total. But school closures will reduce learning and lead to long-term lower productivity, while the economy will be hit harder. The total cost will be $12 billion or two years of GDP. In total, each dollar spent will achieve 4¢ of social benefits.

For reference, other policies in Malawi could save 7,000 people for less than $3 million — at 4,000 times lower cost.

We find a similar result in a new report for the much richer Ghana. Here, the total cost will reach $50 billion, and each dollar in cost will produce just 5¢ of benefits. For comparison, Ghana could save more lives through tuberculosis policies for just $9 million — 5,000 times cheaper.


Our research was highlighted by The Economist in its main story explaining why rich-country style lockdowns are unsustainable in many poor countries."