Sunday, January 26, 2020

How much have state minimum wage increases contributed to recent overall wage gains?

See Pay Is Rising Fastest for Low Earners. One Reason? Minimum Wages. Increases in minimum wages across the country may make the labor market look a bit rosier than it really is. By Ernie Tedeschi of The NY Times. He seems to think the increasing minimum wage has played a significant role. But it seems small in the numbers he shows.  Excerpts:
"This analysis shows that growth in average wages has been running about 3.9 percent per year in the Current Population Survey over the past two years, a bit firmer than the pace right before the Great Recession but below the near 5 percent reached in 2000.

But increases to minimum wages at the state and local level have put 0.4 percentage points of upward pressure on this recent growth. Absent that pressure, wage growth in the Current Population Survey over the last two years would have been 3.5 percent. That’s still a fine result, but it’s a bit cooler than the unadjusted data suggest.

Wage pressure from minimum wage workers is magnified when you look at only the lowest wages. That’s because while minimum wage work makes up about 6 percent of all usual hours worked, it’s around 13 percent of hours worked by Americans in the bottom third of wages.

As the analysis has shown us, wage growth at the bottom is doing well. It has been around 4.1 percent over the last two years — above the 3.6 percent at the top end, and above the overall average of 3.9 percent.

But absent the pressure from minimum wage workers, growth at the bottom would have been closer to 3.3 percent."

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