Tuesday, January 28, 2020

There is no climate policy that would stop Australia’s fires or prevent them from recurring

See Are Fires a Climate Wake-Up Call? If so, activists will realize that pie-in-the-sky and extreme makeovers aren’t a fix by Holman W. Jenkins, Jr. Excerpts:
"There is no climate policy (short of geoengineering to block a portion of sunlight reaching the earth) that would stop Australia’s fires or prevent them from recurring.

Climate policies are things that would, over time, change how much CO2 we ultimately put into the atmosphere. And contrary to the tone of much activism, things that would be worth doing are not a big reach. Battery research (to support solar) is already well-funded; a solution for nuclear phobia may not be at hand, but billions have been spent developing nuclear prototypes so wholly unlike the problematic reactor designs of the 1970s that they shouldn’t be discussed in the same category. And what’s so hard about a carbon tax? Nothing."

"David Wallace-Wells, author of last year’s “Uninhabitable Earth,” a jeremiad so extreme that it was praised by reviewers even as it was panned by climate scientists, wrote a column in New York magazine saying, in so many words, never mind. He discovers “deep—perhaps fatal—problems” with the worst-case emissions projection (known as RCP 8.5) that underlies most “business as usual” climate scenarios. He says fellow activists need to revise their “understanding in a less alarmist direction.”"

"the path of emissions most consistent with historical economic, technological and demographic trends is RCP 4.5—the second-best scenario. Notice that it’s a much smaller jump from RCP 4.5 to the best-case scenario of RCP 2.6 than to RCP 8.5, which posits a near collapse of the global economy and a world that burns an implausible six times as much coal as today. Sure enough, the latest data confirm that, outside China, global emissions were flat in 2019 and the world overall remains on track for the second-best scenario."

"What about Australia’s and California’s wildfires? Some won’t want to hear it, but climate policy is not a solution for the problems of forest management, especially the need for controlled burns to reduce the fuel build-up that leads to catastrophic conflagrations."

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