Friday, August 3, 2018

Illegal immigrants are 47 percent less likely to be incarcerated than natives, legal immigrants are 78 percent

See Incarcerated Immigrants in 2016: Their Numbers, Demographics, and Countries of Origin by Michelangelo Landgrave and Alex Nowrasteh of Cato. Excerpt:
"An estimated 1,955,951 native-born Americans, 117,994 illegal immigrants, and 43,618 legal immigrants were incarcerated in 2016. The incarceration rate for native-born Americans was 1,521 per 100,000, 800 per 100,000 for illegal immigrants, and 325 per 100,000 for legal immigrants in 2016 (Figure 1). Illegal immigrants are 47 percent less likely to be incarcerated than natives. Legal immigrants are 78 percent less likely to be incarcerated than natives. If native-born Americans were incarcerated at the same rate as illegal immigrants, about 930,000 fewer natives would be incarcerated. Conversely, if natives were incarcerated at the same rate as legal immigrants, about 1.5 million fewer natives would be in adult correctional facilities.

The ACS data include illegal immigrants incarcerated for immigration offenses and in ICE detention facilities.17 Removing the immigration offenders by subtracting the 13,000 convicted for immigration offenses and the 34,379 in ICE detention facilities on any given day lowers the illegal immigrant incarceration rate to 479 per 100,000.18

Because our chosen ACS variables could have affected the number of illegal immigrants we identified in the data, we altered some of the variables to see if the results significantly changed. First, we included illegal immigrants who lived in households with users of means-tested welfare benefits. Illegal immigrants do not have access to these benefits, but U.S. citizens and some lawful permanent residents in their households do. This adjustment dropped the illegal immigrant incarceration rate to 760 per 100,000, the legal immigrant incarceration rate remained at 325 per 100,000, and the adjustment did not affect the native incarceration rate.

Our second robustness check excluded all immigrants who entered the United States after 2008. Immigrants on lawful permanent residency can apply for citizenship after five years, guaranteeing that most of the lawful permanent residents who are able to naturalize have done so, which decreases the pool of potential illegal immigrants in our sample. This robustness check shrinks the size of the nonincarcerated illegal immigrant subpopulation relative to those incarcerated and, thus, slightly raises the rate of illegal immigrant incarceration to about 880 per 100,000. These variable changes did not alter our results enough to undermine our confidence in the findings."

"By race and ethnicity, every group of legal and illegal immigrants has a lower incarceration rate than natives of the same race or ethnicity. The incarceration rate for illegal immigrants of all races and ethnicities is lower than the incarceration rate for native-born white Americans."

"6.48 percent of all prisoners are from Latin America whereas 91.69 percent were born in the United States"

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