Actually, Curbing Uber Won’t Relieve Heavy Traffic

The real factors for congestion are increased freight movement, construction activity and tourism, population and job growth

By Liya Palagashvili. She is an economics professor at State University of New York-Purchase.
Excerpt:

"A ban on new ride-hailing drivers will not solve the problem of road congestion since it is being primarily caused by other factors. The City Council should look to more effective proposals to address road congestion. One is congestion pricing: charging higher prices during high-traffic times, such as imposing higher fees on bridges and tunnels during peak hours. The idea is to discourage people from driving during those times, and the revenue generated should be used to invest in improving public transit as a viable alternative. According to some studies and trials by cities around the world, congestion-pricing schemes have been effective at reducing traffic and raising revenues. In past discussions with Gov. Andrew Cuomo, Mayor Bill de Blasio has not been open to this solution.

Yet the proposal Mr. de Blasio does support will harm an already existing congestion-pricing scheme. Ride-hailing companies have a built-in congestion-pricing mechanism — “surge pricing” or “peak pricing.” These higher prices deter riders from frivolously using ride hailing during busy times because prime-time fares are higher. Higher prices encourage many potential customers to opt for the subways. For comparison, taxis have a fixed $1 surcharge only between 4 p.m. and 8 p.m. on weekdays, which is too small an amount to effectively deter many riders.

Before the City Council chooses to limit ride-hailing services to New Yorkers, especially those in the boroughs outside Manhattan, it should test whether claims about those services are well-founded. As it stands today, there is no compelling evidence that ride hailing has been a primary or significant cause of New York’s traffic problems."

"From 2009 (before ride hailing) through 2015, the study finds that reductions in vehicular speeds began long before ride hailing hit the stage, and the pattern did not change after ride hailing. The primary factors of reductions in vehicular speed, according to the study, are increased freight movement, construction activity and tourism, population and job growth."

"From 2009 to 2015, pedestrian growth in Manhattan’s central business district grew by about 18 to 24 percent. This slows cars down; at turns, they have to wait for crossing pedestrians. Furthermore, last year, New York City set a record of hosting almost 63 million tourists — a nearly 30 percent increase from 2010."

"Critics may dismiss this report by pointing to a 60 percent jump, since 2015, in for-hire vehicles. But according to a recent New York City Department of Transportation study on traffic speeds in Manhattan’s central business district, between 2015 and 2017, traffic speeds fell by about 4 percent. 

From 2010 to 2014, before ride hailing took off, speeds fell by 12.1 percent. In fact, every year before 2015 the reduction in speed was greater than the yearly reductions in speed after 2015. The sharpest reductions in speed were between 2012-13 and 2014-15 — i.e., before ride hailing “conquered” Manhattan"

"Subway ridership has been declining since 2015, and so far this year, it is down by about 2 percent. However, in that same survey, respondents indicated that they were just as likely to substitute a car option (taxi, car service or personal vehicle) for ride hailing."

"peak-hour subway ridership is not the problem. The decline in subway ridership is coming from off-peak hours and ridership within and between the boroughs outside Manhattan. This is precisely where there is the least amount of traffic, and notoriously where the subway is the least reliable. In fact, according to Mr. Mulligan, the neighborhoods farthest from Manhattan were the same neighborhoods that have seen the largest growth in ride-hailing usage. Sixty-six percent of people in Northern Manhattan and Northern Bronx indicated they use ride-hailing services to replace transit trips."