We’re Preparing for the Wrong AI Labor Crisis

Mass unemployment is unlikely. AI will reorganize the white-collar corporate workforce, not destroy it.

By Stephen Lewarne. He is a professor of economics at Franciscan University. Excerpts:

"the notion that the economy faces mass technological unemployment doesn’t fit the evidence"

"the broader market continues to show relatively stable aggregate demand for labor. In March, the unemployment rate stood at 4.3%, close to both the Federal Reserve’s estimate of long-run normal unemployment and Congressional Budget Office projections for the coming decade. Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 178,000 jobs during the month, while healthcare added 76,000 jobs and averaged roughly 29,000 new jobs a month over the prior year."

"U.S. entry-level job postings have fallen roughly 35% since January 2023, with highly AI-exposed entry-level postings declining more than 40%."

"Employer surveys indicate a substantial shift away from GPA-based screening and toward skills-based hiring. Employers increasingly emphasize demonstrated competencies, project-based experience and practical problem-solving abilities." 

[there is] "a labor-market transition more complicated than conventional automation narratives suggest."