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New Study Reveals The Arctic Region Was 4.6°C Warmer Than ‘Present Day’ During The 1930s
From Kenneth Richard of notrickszone.com. Excerpt:
A comparison of bioclimatic conditions on
Franz Josef Land (the Arctic) between the
turn of the 19th to 20th century and present day
“Air temperature in 1899–1914 during
three expeditions was 1.8–4.6 °C lower than the modern period in winter
(Oct–Apr). However, during the 1930/31 expedition it was 4.6 °C warmer than the years 1981–2010.
Our results relate to what has been called the ‘1930s warming’,
referred to by various authors in the literature as the ETCW or the
ETCAW.”
“In individual months, the highest
negative anomalies were identified in Calm Bay (hereafter CB) in January
1914 (− 7.4 °C) and in February 1900 (− 6.8 °C). In contrast, during the 1930/31 expedition, it was 4.6 °C warmer than the present day in CB [Calm Bay]. Such a high thermal anomaly was influenced by a warm autumn and winter, especially February 1931, when the average monthly temperature was 10.7 °C higher than in the modern period.”
“In approximately the last 140 years, there have been two
periods of significant temperature increases in the Arctic. The first
began in around 1918–1920 and lasted until 1938 and has been called the
‘1930s warming’ (Bengtsson et al. 2004). Other works have referred to this period as the ‘Early Twentieth Century Warming’
(ETCW, Brönnimann 2009) or the ‘Early Twentieth Century Arctic Warming’
(ETCAW, Wegmann et al. 2017, 2018). Our results confirm the
observations for the last expedition from the historical study period in
1930/1931. These years covered the warmest part of the ETCW. In turn,
the second increased warming of the Arctic began around 1980
(Johannessen et al. 2004) or according to Przybylak (2007) in about the
mid-1990s. Changes in overall atmospheric circulation have long been
believed to have been the cause of the ETCW (e.g. Scherhag 1937). As the modern climate warming (since 1975) has progressed in a largely similar manner to the progression of the ETCW (Wood and Overland 2010; Semenov and Latif 2012), there
has been renewed interest in the insufficiently well-explained causes
of the ETCW using the latest research methods, including, primarily,
climate models. An analysis of the literature shows that the cause of such a significant warming in the present period is still not clear. There is even controversy over whether the main factors in the process are natural or anthropogenic, although the decided majority of researchers assign a greater role to natural factors
(Bengtsson et al. 2004; Semenov and Latif 2012). It would appear that
the greatest differences of opinion on the causes of the ETCW are to be
found in works presenting climate models (see, e.g. Shiogama et al.
2006; Suo et al. 2013), which is an excellent illustration of the still-insufficient knowledge of the mechanisms governing the Arctic Climate System.”"
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