"Based on a pathetically wrong study which is timed just right for great coverage.
The study specifically excludes any adaptation and assumes a laughably
small number of cold deaths. Both dramatically push up damages and push
down benefits.
Excluding adaptation leads to dramatic
exaggeration of impacts. The study assumes that *no one* will make any
adjustments over the next 83 years to accommodate higher temperatures,
like cooler buildings, more greenery, more light surfaces and more air
conditioning. Even the commentators on the paper are forced to point out
that this is unrealistic: "People are known to adapt and become less
vulnerable than previously to extreme weather conditions because of
advances in medical technology, air conditioning, and thermal insulation
in houses."
One study shows that this is systematic: "We find
that studies based on projected changes in climate indicate substantial
increases in heat-related mortality and morbidity in the future, while
observational studies based on historical climate and health records
show a decrease in negative impacts during recent warming."
https://link.springer.com/artic…/10.1007%2Fs40641-015-0016-4
Another study from the US shows that without adaptation, you get
significantly more heat deaths, but with adaptation, you get much lower
impacts and possibly negative.
http://www.nber.org/papers/w23271
A similar kind of analysis we know from adaptation/no adaptation of sea
level rise: For no adaptation, 2m sea level rise would cause
187,000,000 to have to move. With adaptation, it is 305,000 – 600 times
fewer! (
http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934/161)
Simultaneously, the study honestly shows that cold deaths will drop by
98%, because of global warming. That sounds like an upside.
But
because they use the catastrophe database, which picks up almost no cold
deaths (because cold deaths don't happen in the thousands, but
one-by-one in old peoples homes), they assume that only 100 people die
each year of cold in Europe.
One hundred.
And hence, the benefit of global warming's 98% cold death reduction is just 98 fewer deaths.
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