Are Trump’s Tariffs Winning?

He says yes, but let’s look at the evidence that voters feel judging by their views of the economy.

WSJ editorial. Excerpts:

"How much better would the economy be now without the tariffs and their on-again, off-again imposition? Prices on many goods would be lower, for one thing. Tariffs don’t cause general inflation, but they do raise relative prices."

"the authors [researchers at Harvard] note that the “retail pass-through” of the tariffs has been 24%—a measure of the extent to which a given tariff rate feeds through to consumer prices, given that the cost of the good at the border is only one part of the final price. This pass-through rate is higher than under Mr. Trump’s 2018-19 China tariffs." 

"The Harvard economists note in the same paragraph that U.S. consumers are bearing up to 43% of the tariff burden, with U.S. companies absorbing most of the rest.That aligns with other research"

"Americans pay one way or the other—via higher prices or less choice."

"The rates he declared on “Liberation Day” created a market swoon that quickly caused him to back down"

"most of those are far below his “liberation” rates."

"a major carve-out for consumer electronics"

"exceptions have since included bananas, coffee, cocoa, jet engines and rare-earth minerals"

"China. Beijing called Mr. Trump’s bluff with hefty retaliatory tariffs of up to 140% on American goods and a squeeze on rare-earth exports. The result has been a crisis for American soybean farmers"

"stock market . . . tends to rise when Mr. Trump dials back a tariff threat" 

"manufacturing employment declined by some 63,000 jobs in 2025"

"employment in steel production has barely budged during his year in office, and employment in industries that use steel such as auto manufacturing is declining."