The Real Risk to the Electric Grid

Power shortages are coming thanks to wind and solar subsidies. Here’s how they distort energy investment

WSJ editorial. Excerpts:

"The Energy report projects potential power shortfalls in 2030, as 104 gigawatts of baseload power retire in the next five years. But here’s the really bad news: That shortfalls will exist even if that production is replaced, as expected, with 209 gigawatts of the mostly solar and wind generation under development. 

Americans would lose power in 2030 for an average of 817.7 hours (34 days), assuming typical weather conditions. If heat waves or storms stress the grid, outages could reach 55 days. Even without plant shutdowns, Americans would lose power for 269.9 hours (11 days) amid demand growth. The power shortages would be worse in middle America, where demand is growing fastest owing to AI data centers and renewables are displacing coal and gas.

How can this be? The answer is that the Inflation Reduction Act turbo-charged subsidies for wind and solar in ways that are distorting energy investment. Because the subsidies can offset more than 50% of a project’s cost, solar and wind became more profitable to build than new baseload gas plants. The credits enable wind and solar to under-price coal and gas plants in competitive power markets"

"Coal, nuclear and gas plants are still needed to back up solar and wind, but they can’t make a profit running only some of the time. Thus many have been closing, jeopardizing grid reliability."

"Texas’s residential power prices have risen some 40% over the last seven years."