How Deadly Were the Covid Lockdowns?

For Americans under 45, there were more excess deaths without the virus in 2020-21 than with it.

By Rob Arnott and Casey B. Mulligan. Excerpts:

"During the first two years of the pandemic, “excess deaths”—the death toll above the historical trend—markedly exceeded the number of deaths attributed to Covid."

"“non-Covid excess deaths” totaled nearly 100,000 a year in 2020 and 2021."

"these numbers likely overestimate deaths from Covid and underestimate those from other causes."

"the official count of “Covid deaths” includes people who tested positive but died of other causes."

"During the pandemic, deaths from accidents, overdoses, alcoholism and homicide all soared, as did deaths from hypertension, heart disease and diabetes. From April 2020 through December 2021, deaths from Covid averaged 350,000 a year for Americans 65 and older, 100,000 a year for those 45 to 64, and 20,000 a year for those 18 to 44. That produced excess deaths for these age groups of 16%, 19% and 11% respectively."

"While deaths from hypertension, heart disease and diabetes dominate non-Covid excess deaths for senior citizens, the other causes—accidents, overdoses, alcoholism and homicide—skew younger, poorer and with a disproportionate effect on minorities."

"these young-adult deaths, running 27% above historical trends, take far more years of life than the excess deaths for older age cohorts."

"the rate of non-Covid excess deaths in the first half of 2022 was even higher than 2020 or 2021. These deaths therefore likely already exceed 250,000, disproportionately among young adults."

"Non-Covid excess deaths have shown no signs of diminishing, at least through mid-2022. We now have more overdose deaths each year than all military deaths of the last 60 years combined. Homicides, accidents and alcohol deaths are collectively running tens of thousands per year above pre-pandemic norms."