Sunday, December 20, 2020

Restrictions by themselves they haven’t been enough to prevent the current wave

See ‘Lockdown Lite’ Spares Economies but Doesn’t End Pandemic: France shows more-targeted responses can work, but in U.S. they haven’t stopped risky behavior by Greg Ip of The WSJ. Excerpt:

"And while restrictions, all else being equal, do slow the virus’s spread, by themselves they haven’t been enough to prevent the current wave. Much of California never fully reopened, and it boasts one of the country’s lowest per capita death rates. Nonetheless, cases there are now climbing swiftly.

North and South Dakota, which until recently imposed almost no restrictions or mask requirements, lead the country in recent per capita deaths. But Rhode Island’s death rate is also near the top, though it has required masks since the spring and limited social gatherings to 10 people in late October.

Indiana University economist Kosali Simon and co-authors found that state and local social-distancing orders explained about 40% of the decline in mobility in the spring, and lifting them explained even less of the subsequent rise in mobility. That suggests personal perceptions of risk drives behavior as much, if not more, as government edicts."

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