"Business investment fell through the floor in the last half of 2015 and 2016, offset in part by a robust housing market. But that has reversed since Donald Trump took office, with business investment taking the lead as housing slowed and moved into negative territory in late 2018 and the first quarter of 2019.
What changed? Well, the economic policy mix. The Trump Administration lifted the threat of new regulation and harassment of business in 2017, which liberated long-stifled animal spirits. Then came the Trump tax reform with its sharp reduction in business tax rates and immediate 100% expensing of new investment. This was targeted precisely to stimulate the weak capital investment that had stymied growth in the Obama years.
This has also kept the U.S. expansion going even as growth in the rest of the world has slowed markedly. U.S. growth over the last four quarters year over year is now above 3%. Politicians in Germany or France would be elated, and maybe faint dead over, if they could keep growth above 3% for 12 months.
Unlike the years leading up to the last recession, the current economy isn’t as dependent on the housing market. Many economists consider housing to be a form of consumption, while capital investment in equipment, intellectual property and new plants pays off for years to come in better productivity and higher wages. This is the tax-reform gift that keeps on giving as lower tax rates that are fixed in law raise the return on capital that encourages more investment. In other words, tax reform isn’t a “sugar high.”
The first quarter was also notable for the slowdown in inflation, with the price index for gross domestic purchases rising 0.8%. That’s the slowest pace since the first quarter of 2016. Even with the recent rise in oil prices, there’s no inflation case that the Federal Reserve should resume raising interest rates."
Monday, April 29, 2019
The Trump policy mix continues to pay economic dividends.
See The Tide Keeps Rising. WSJ editorial. Excerpt:
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