Some statistics on poverty are dramatically overstated because of flawed survey data.

Our poverty data may be completely wrong by Angela Rachidi of AEI.

"According to the study, by University of Chicago researchers Bruce Meyer and Nikolas Mittag, survey respondents in deep poverty reported only 52 percent of government resources they received.

Considering all people in poverty, survey data captured only 46 percent of government assistance. The implication was that poverty researchers — who often recalculate the poverty rate to include income from programs that the official metric ignores — have been reporting bad numbers. Using this type of measure, with the thresholds from the official metric but more safety-net income included, single-mother households had a poverty rate of 30.2 percent using the survey data, but only 19.2 percent once underreporting was accounted for.

A much smaller percentage of single mothers were also found to “fall through the cracks” completely when factoring in underreporting. Past research suggests that roughly 20 percent of single mothers had no earnings and no income from cash welfare, suggesting that government programs were failing them. But Meyer and Mittag found that relying on survey data overstated the percentage of these “disconnected” single mothers by one-third.

The researchers discovered this phenomenon by looking at data from New York State, comparing what individuals told the Census’s Current Population Survey with data from state agencies indicating what they actually received in cash, food, housing, and other benefits. Based on their analysis, the authors believe that the results are applicable outside of New York State, and that the data flaws are likely consistent across most household surveys.

These results require that we reassess our view of the poor and the programs designed to serve them. An analysis in the recent book $2 a Day: Living on Almost Nothing In America, by Kathryn Edin and Luke Shaefer, found that 1.5 million households were living on less than $2 in cash a day in 2011 — a number that almost doubled since welfare reform in 1996. They argued that TANF, the government’s safety net of last resort, was dead. But is that number real? The work by Meyer and Mittag suggests it is likely not."