America Can’t Do Without Fracking

Shale is crucial to the U.S. economy, and it allows Washington to buttress our allies across the globe

By Daniel Yergin. Excerpts:

"the first two decades of this century . . . The U.S. was then the world’s largest importer of oil. Today it is energy-independent with, S&P Global estimates, more than 70% of its oil and more than 80% of its natural gas produced through fracking."

"For more than four decades every president aspired to it, but their goal seemed unattainable."

"In recent years, however, America has achieved energy independence on a net basis. U.S. output is closing in on 13.5 million barrels of crude oil a day, exceeding that of perennial big producers Saudi Arabia and Russia by several million barrels per day. Add what are called natural-gas liquids, and the U.S. produces around 20 million barrels per day.

Textbooks used to hold that commercial production of shale was impossible. Innovation and investment over decades have proved otherwise."

"battery-powered and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles will account for about 2% of the U.S. on-road light-vehicle fleet in 2024. If fracking were banned, the U.S. would need to import extraordinary amounts of oil to fuel our gasoline- and diesel-powered cars. In 2008, before shale-oil production began in earnest, the net bill for importing petroleum was $388 billion—more than 40% of the total merchandise trade deficit. Today the same bill, by contrast, is virtually nothing."

"If the U.S. were to start importing again, the price of oil would doubtless rise, as we would be forced to compete for supplies with countries such as China"

"The U.S. also exports a large amount of liquefied natural gas, mostly produced from shale. Without it, LNG’s positive effect on the trade balance would disappear too."

"In previous decades, such upheavals as Ukraine’s war against Russia and Israel’s war with Iranian proxies would have spiked global prices. In recent years the scale of U.S. production has helped offset any such surges."