The Murder Spike of 2020: When Police Pull Back

A criminologist argues that last year’s unprecedented rise in killings was the result of treating policing as a problem to be solved, rather than an essential part of public order

By Peter Moskos. Excerpts:

"The rise in murders in the U.S. in 2020 was unprecedented. Complete nationwide data for the year won’t be available until September, but we already know that in 70 cities and counties that account for a fifth of the U.S. population, the murder rate rose by 35%. The largest previous increase on record was 13% in 1968—a year that, like 2020, was marked by civil unrest, often triggered by police misconduct, leading to demands for police reform."

"Were the stress and economic hardship of the pandemic a factor? Perhaps in some places. But Covid struck hard in Baltimore and Newark, for example, and the murder rate in those cities didn’t increase. There was economic anxiety in Anchorage, but murders declined there by 50%."

"Economic factors in general seem to have little impact on violent crime. Murder rates declined during the previous economic crash in 2007-08, then began an upward trend in 2014 even as poverty and unemployment hit record lows. Over the past six decades, annual changes in U.S. murder and poverty rates have moved in opposite directions more often than they have moved in sync. There are vast areas of immigrant poverty in the U.S. with low murder rates, and in parts of Appalachia, poverty combines with widespread gun ownership, yet gun violence remains rare."

"The Covid lockdowns of 2020 are also a weak explanation for surging violence. Such lockdowns took place around the world, but the dramatic rise in murders is a phenomenon unique to the U.S."

"the massive increase in violence in the U.S. started not with the pandemic but with the death of Mr. Floyd in late May."

"Years of declining crime rates through 2014 had allowed political leaders to shift their focus away from crime prevention. The number of arrests nationwide peaked in 1997, and the number of people incarcerated has been in a slow decline since 2007. What changed in 2020 is that policing itself came under unprecedented pressure, brought on by the murder of Mr. Floyd."

"Such external pressure, combined with a pullback on the part of police departments wary of intensified scrutiny, has resulted in less proactive policing in many cities. In Los Angeles, for instance, arrests declined 40% between 2013 and 2019, mostly as a result of Proposition 47, which reclassified many felonies as misdemeanors. In 2020 arrests dropped another 37%, and this year they are down another 6% so far, even as shootings and murders in Los Angeles continue to rise."

cops "fear that increased resistance from emboldened suspects might require the use of force, leading to public criticism and even the prosecution of police officers."

"Amid the pandemic, the work of the courts slowed and fewer people were detained for committing crimes. New York police officials reported that in 2020 about 40% of those arrested for gun possession were released on their own recognizance, pending indefinitely postponed prosecution. Meanwhile, in the face of rising protests, proactive quality-of-life stops, tickets and arrests plunged by 90% or more, even as routine requests for police intervention rose by almost 50%."

"A number of the cities with the biggest increases in murders in 2020 were associated with particularly controversial policing incidents. Murders increased by 69% in Minneapolis, for example, where Mr. Floyd was killed, and by 99% in Louisville, where Breonna Taylor was shot in a botched police operation. In Seattle, where protests after Mr. Floyd’s death sometimes turned violent and resulted in the creation of an anti-police “autonomous zone,” the murder rate increased 41%."

"There are precedents in other cities for police pullbacks in the face of controversy and subsequent spikes in violent crime. In Baltimore in 2015, six officers were charged for the death of Freddy Gray in police custody. After riots led to personnel shortages and a more combative public, proactive policing essentially ended. The 2014 shooting death of Laquan McDonald in Chicago, which was followed by a police and political coverup, led to a new requirement for police officers to complete lengthy forms, subject to official review by the ACLU, for every stop they made. In this environment, police largely declined to stop suspicious people, and violent crime increased."