A False Narrative About ‘Misinformation’ and Covid Vaccines

The evidence suggests resistance is based largely on pre-existing attitudes, not bad information.

By Robert M. Kaplan. Mr. Kaplan is a faculty member at Stanford University’s Clinical Excellence Research Center, a former associate director of the National Institutes of Health, and a former chief science officer for the U.S. Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality.

"The idea that recent, deliberate misinformation campaigns created hesitancy to the Covid-19 vaccine appears itself to be misinformation.

Over the past year the Stanford Clinical Excellence Research Center has asked representative samples of the U.S. population about the likelihood they would accept vaccines. A poll completed in August 2020 showed that about 20% of the population reported they were very unlikely to take a vaccine even if the evidence suggested it was safe and effective. Another 15% said they were unlikely to take it. Those two categories add up to approximately the percentage of adults yet to get a first dose a year later.

Without even knowing there would be a vaccine, more than a third of the population told us they were not planning to accept it.

The study was repeated in late December 2020 after highly impressive results from clinical trials led the Food and Drug Administration to give emergency-use authorization for two vaccines. News cycles prior to our December survey were dominated by stories on the potential for vaccines. Still, about 35% said they were unlikely or very unlikely to take the vaccine. The numbers are almost identical to those seen in August when vaccine potential had not received public scrutiny. 

The Stanford finding that 20% would be very unlikely to take the vaccine is consistent with a variety of other studies. Monthly polls by the Kaiser Family Foundation show the percentage saying they will definitely not take the vaccine or take it only if required has held steady at around 20%.  

Our studies also looked at demographic factors related to self-reported vaccine hesitancy. Older adults, women, Asian-Americans, and college graduates were more likely to say they would take the vaccine, while African-American and Hispanic respondents were more hesitant. And even before it was known if a vaccine would ever be available, Biden supporters were significantly more likely than Trump followers to say they would get the shot.

We also looked at the likelihood people would take the vaccine under a variety of hypothetical circumstances. To our surprise, information on the expected side effects and benefits had only small effects. All told, many people made up their minds long before vaccines were available.

The internet is awash with misinformation about the vaccines. But data distortion seems to have little effect on vaccine uptake. Well over a year ago, 35% told us they wouldn’t take the vaccine, and they have kept their word. The recent increase in vaccine uptake appears to be among people who initially said they would “wait and see.”

In politics, voters choose their loyalties early. After they do, expensive and exhausting campaigns affect few voters. Vaccine acceptance may similarly be determined by the groups we align with rather than evidence—or false information—about the vaccine itself."