See About that fiscal cliff by Scott Sumner.
"The unemployment rate in July was 10.2%. At the end of July, the fiscal stimulus ran out and Keynesians predicted a disaster if it were not renewed.
Three months later, unemployment was down to 6.9%, far lower than Keynesians predicted. Probably even lower than what they would have expected if a second round of fiscal stimulus had been enacted.
Sort of the opposite of 2009, when the unemployment rate with fiscal stimulus ended up even worse than what was was predicted to happen if Congress had failed to enact fiscal stimulus.
The embarrassing forecast misses keep piling up."
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