Trump’s trade war could cost 2M jobs, -1% GDP drag and $2K/yr. higher costs per family

From Mark Perry.

"Here’s the Executive Summary of a study that was just released by the Trade Partnership Worldwide titled “Estimated Impacts of Tariffs on the U.S. Economy and Workers“:

Beginning in March 2018, the United States began to impose a series of tariffs and then quotas on imports of selected steel and aluminum products from all countries except Australia. Those countries retaliated in kind. The United States also imposed tariffs on a large share of U.S. imports from China, and China retaliated in kind. The United States has threatened to impose additional tariffs on U.S. imports of motor vehicles and parts from selected countries, as well as on the remainder of U.S. imports from China. This study examines the economic effects of these actual and threatened tariffs on the U.S. economy and U.S. workers one to three years after they have been in effect. We look at four scenarios and find:

Here’s the study’s conclusion:

By any measure, the imposition of tariffs by the United States on U.S. imports of steel, aluminum, motor vehicles and parts, some subset of products imported from China – or all of them is a net loss for the U.S. economy and U.S. workers. An examination of all the ways in which such tariffs, accompanied by retaliation by U.S. trading partners, affects purchasing and hiring decisions demonstrates that on balance U.S. farmers, manufacturers, services providers and their workers experience greater losses than gains. In some instances, the tariff actions erase all of the anticipated gains from tax reform.

MP: It’s really too bad there’s no academic discipline that has studied international trade for hundreds of years going back to the 18th century, with extensive knowledge of trade theories and mountains of research and empirical evidence on protectionism that could have predicted these adverse outcomes from Trump’s trade war."