skip to main |
skip to sidebar
Temperatures unchanged for two decades, climate policy should start reflecting global warming 'hiatus'
From Ross McKitrick of the Fraser Institute.
"TORONTO—Policy-makers should carefully consider the
implications of the pause or “hiatus” in global warming when crafting
climate policy, concludes a new study released today by the Fraser
Institute, an independent, non-partisan Canadian public policy
think-tank.
The study, Climate Policy Implications of the Hiatus in Global Warming, spotlights the warming hiatus, and what it means for public policy in Canada and around the world.
“Many
politicians, journalists and others claim the climate is warming faster
than expected. But over the past two decades, the pace of warming has
actually slowed well below almost all model projections, and the
implications for climate policy have not been adequately discussed,”
said Ross McKitrick, study author, Fraser Institute senior fellow and
economics professor at the University of Guelph.
There has been no
statistically significant temperature change over the past 15 to 20
years (exact length of the hiatus depends on the data source) despite an
11 per cent increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas levels since 1995,
driven primarily by carbon dioxide (CO¬2) emissions from cars, power
plants and other manmade sources.
Crucially, in countries like
Canada, greenhouse gas policy analysis relies heavily on climate models
(computer simulations that predict warming trends), which project
temperature changes based on greenhouse gas levels.
But several
recent scientific studies, notes McKitrick, found that greenhouse gases
have less effect on climate than most climate models project. And the
gap between climate models (with their projected temperatures) and
reality (actual temperatures) continues to grow.
The result?
Policy-makers risk overestimating the harmful effects of CO¬2, and as a
result, may set inappropriate policy targets. McKitrick also notes that
climate policies (carbon taxes, for example) often involve long-term
commitments from governments with no provision for adjusting to new
information or scientific development.
So what should policy-makers do, in light of the warming hiatus?
“Over
the next few years, as evidence mounts, climate models may change
dramatically. If policy-makers want to craft sound climate policy, they
should await the outcome of this process, and any long-term plan should
be adaptable to new data about the effects of CO¬2 emissions,” McKitrick
said.
“The global warming hiatus is real and has implications for
policy design that have not yet been taken into account. A failure to
recognize the scientific evidence may prove costly for Canada and other
countries around the world.”
"
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.