Did ObamaCare Lower Costs?

See The Next ObamaCare Mirage: The new line is that the health-care law will save money. That's also not true. From the WSJ 11-25-13 by Thomas Miller And Abby McCloskey. Mr. Miller is a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and former senior health economist on the Joint Economic Committee. Ms. McCloskey is program director of economic policy at the American Enterprise Institute.  Excerpts:

"The only apparent bright spot is that the average annual rate of health-care spending increases has slowed. Over the past three years, growth in health-care spending averaged 3.9% year-over-year, considerably slower than the historical average.

However, annual health-spending growth rates began to decline a decade ago. In 2002, health-care spending grew by nearly 10% in a single year. The growth rate dropped to 7.1% in 2004, 6.2% in 2007, and bottomed out at 3.9% in 2009—the worst year of the Great Recession, where it has stayed ever since. ObamaCare was enacted in 2010.

CMS and the Congressional Budget Office attribute the general slowdown in health-care spending increases over the past decade to a variety of factors, including increased cost sharing in private health plans and a slower rate of introduction of new health technology. An Urban Institute analysis points to how the mix of health-care payers has shifted over the past decade toward lower-paying government programs providing a greater share of coverage (particularly Medicaid). 

Still, the recession is recognized by objective analysts as the single largest driver of slowed health-care spending in recent years. Many who lost their jobs lost their health insurance. Tight on cash, they opted out of surgery, hospital visits and prescriptions. 

Changes in health-spending growth rates traditionally lag about two years behind changes in national economic growth."