The Twilight of Justin Trudeau

Liberals suffer another defeat as Canadians reckon with economic and political decline

WSJ editorial. 

"A second by-election loss in a second Liberal Party stronghold should have Canada’s Justin Trudeau questioning if any seat is safe. Canadians have been trying for a year to tell their Prime Minister to depart. Is he listening?

On Monday the Liberals lost one of their safest seats in Montreal to the separatist Bloc Québécois. In June they lost a safe Toronto riding to a little-known Conservative. Polls have the Liberals down by some 20 points to the Conservatives, and as much as two-thirds say Mr. Trudeau should resign. Now in his ninth year as PM, he pledges to stay.

Stepping down for Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland or climate activist Mark Carney might not reverse Liberal fortunes. Though Mr. Trudeau’s charm has faded, Canadian dissatisfaction centers on the rising cost of living that Liberal policy has failed to reverse. “Rent has doubled in Canada eight years after Justin Trudeau promised to lower it,” says Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. No wonder Liberal support has plummeted among younger voters.

Rather than run again as Liberal-lite and pander with a carbon-tax proposal of their own, the Conservatives may have found a leader, in Mr. Poilievre, able to prosecute the case against Mr. Trudeau. This harder edge was supposed to make Mr. Poilievre unelectable, but his consistent economic message has resonated.

Meanwhile, the Liberals have made climate change their signature issue. Their carbon tax increases the price of gasoline by some 14 cents a liter, yet Canada remains nowhere close to meeting the Liberal pledge of net-zero emissions by 2050. Even if it did, it would hardly register in the global emissions total. This has been the Trudeau experience: Pain for Canada’s middle class so the Prime Minister can virtue-signal on the world stage.

Productivity has declined under Mr. Trudeau, opening a 30% gap with the U.S., and Canada’s GDP per capita now trails America’s by more than $20,000. This despite a doubling of federal debt on his watch. Environmental regulations, a large capital-gains tax increase and capitulation to anti-pipeline protesters have harmed investment, especially in energy.

The Liberals have also soured parts of the country on immigration, which was once widely celebrated. Without debate, Canada grew by 1.27 million people in 2023, 98% of it from immigration, from a base of 39 million.

Rising homelessness and drug deaths have contributed to a sense of disorder, as have attacks on Jewish schools and synagogues. For many Canadians, affordable homes and social stability have come to be associated with the before times under Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper (2006-15).

He was less flashy than Mr. Trudeau, but as a Canadian once sang, you don’t know what you got ’til it’s gone."