Can We Power the EPA’s EV Fantasy?

The overhaul of electrical grids and distribution would require labor and resources we don’t have.

By Jonathan A. Lesser and Mark P. Mills. Mr. Lesser is a senior fellow and Mr. Mills director of the National Center for Energy Analytics. Excerpts:

"The EPA admits it can be met only if EVs compose well above half of new vehicle sales by 2032." (the agency’s new standard for carbon-dioxide emissions)

"Electric cars accounted for shy of 8% of new auto sales last year and drained billions from automakers’ profits."

"There is, however, another wild card in the EPA’s gamble. Widespread adoption of EVs will require an unprecedented and staggeringly expensive expansion of local electrical grids. This will require a huge increase in the production of electrical transformers, along with more power plants and transmission lines to produce and deliver energy.

This overhaul must include upgrading local grid distribution at the roughly 3,000 electric utilities across the country—the wires, poles and transformers that line our streets. There are 60 million to 80 million distribution transformers in neighborhoods, designed for existing loads. Around one million new ones are sold annually, two-thirds of which replace aged-out transformers. That replacement rate isn’t close to meeting the EPA’s dreams. Millions more—and heavier—transformers will be needed to handle higher power levels and more frequent use, even if many EVs are charged overnight. This will also require replacing many of the existing utility poles to handle new transformers’ extra weight."

"millions of homes and apartment complexes will need electrical upgrades to accommodate at-home chargers."

"Electricians will need to install new circuits for EV chargers, and many older homes will need new power panels to handle increased demand."

"Replicating the nation’s some 195,000 retail gasoline stations will require far more than the 4,000 charging facilities that the Federal Highway Administration has proposed. Given the physics of electricity, thousands of these charging stations will each have the power demand of an entire town rather than that of a typical convenience store."

"One Energy Department study estimated some $50 billion to $125 billion in infrastructure upgrades will be needed to support EVs composing 10% of all on-road cars. Today they amount to less than 2%. We estimate that achieving the EPA’s goal will require north of $1 trillion in grid upgrades by 2035."

"Delivery of the largest utility transformers can already take several years, and overall transformer costs have risen 70% since 2018. Replacing tens of millions of distribution transformers would require massive quantities of copper, most of which would have to be imported. The process would also exceed the production capabilities of the handful of American manufacturers."

"The unique electrical steel needed for transformers and electric motors is also in short supply, served by only one major producer, Cleveland Cliffs. New Energy Department rules to improve transformer efficiency will require switching to even more specialized and costlier amorphous steel."