More Heat Waves But Falling Heat Mortality In U.S.

With upticks in cities with greater proportions of immigrant laborers and homeless people

By Ronald Bailey of Reason. Excerpts:

"a January 2021 study in Weather, Climate, and Society (WCS), which looked at national heat mortality trends based on data from the 107 largest cities in the U.S., reported that the relative risk of dying from heat exposure has been falling in most regions since 1975."

"The WCS study also finds that the fraction of Americans dying annually from heat exposure has also been trending down since 1975."

Is extreme heat the deadliest type of weather disaster? Under its climate change indicators, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) reports that the rate of heat-related deaths (orange line) has recently bounced between one and two per 1 million annually.

EPA

In comparison, the EPA reports that the rate of cold-related deaths has been generally higher.

"On the other hand, a longer-term view from the most recent U.S. National Climate Assessment report finds that while the frequency of heat waves has been increasing since the 1960s, they were more common and fiercer during the first third of the 20th century."

""It is true that if analysis of data begins in the 1960s, then an increase in heat waves can be shown. However, if the data analyses begins before the 1930s then there is no upwards trend, and a case can even be made for a decline. It is a fertile field for cherry pickers," observes University of Colorado climate policy researcher Roger Pielke Jr."

"The falling trends in U.S. heat mortality are associated with increased air conditioning, less work outdoors, and better weather warning systems."