Monday, September 6, 2021

Extensive data still shows that the vaccines remain remarkably effective against severe disease and hospitalization despite the spread of Delta; dexamethasone when properly used is a major life saver

See Show Me the Data! by Zeynep Tufekci of The NY Times. She is also an associate professor at the University of North Carolina Excerpts:

"While the pandemic has produced many fine examples of research and meticulous data collection, we are still lacking in detailed and systematic data on cases, contact tracing, breakthrough infections and vaccine efficacy over time, as well as randomized trials of interventions like boosters. This has left us playing catch-up with emerging threats like the Delta variant and has left policymakers struggling to make timely decisions in a manner that inspires confidence.

To see the dangers of insufficient data and the powers of appropriate data, consider the case of dexamethasone, an inexpensive generic corticosteroid drug.

In the early days of the pandemic, doctors were warned against using it to treat Covid patients. The limited literature from SARS and MERS — illnesses related to Covid — suggested that steroids, which suppress the immune system, would harm rather than help Covid patients.

That assessment changed on June 16, 2020, when the results of a large-scale randomized clinical trial from Britain, one of all too few such efforts during the pandemic, demonstrated that dexamethasone was able to reduce deaths by one-fifth among patients needing supplemental oxygen and an astonishing one-third among those on ventilators.

The study also explained the earlier findings: Given too early, before patients needed supplemental oxygen, steroids could harm patients. But comprehensive data from the randomized trial showed that when given later, as the disease progressed in severity, dexamethasone was immensely helpful.

Dexamethasone has since become a workhorse of Covid treatment, saving perhaps millions of lives at little cost or fanfare."

"We’ve had variants appear, generating alarming headlines, that were later shown to be no more threatening than previous ones."

"After early reports and charts caused a lot of concern by suggesting the Pfizer vaccine’s efficacy may have fallen by as much as 40 percent, an actual preliminary report released weeks later showed that figure was too confounded to be reliable.

In another example, a recent Israeli chart appears to show that a booster shot provides a great deal of protection even a single day after it has been administered — which is essentially impossible. Many things could be going on, including behavior change among those first in line for the booster."

"If vaccination occurred at higher rates, earlier, in Israeli urban areas, and if Delta also had hit urban areas first, a rise in cases might be because of the earlier appearance of the Delta variant in some places, waning protection from vaccination, or a combination of both. If the government responds with boosters, as it is doing, and cases start dropping, is it because of the booster, Delta’s natural course, or both?"

"a news release from the U.S. Health and Human Services Department announcing that boosters will be available to all vaccinated Americans as early as September, while at the same time saying that is subject to evaluation by the Food and Drug Administration and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. If there’s data proving the need for boosters, where is it? If not, why did federal officials issue the news release?"

"announcing that a third Moderna or Pfizer dose will be offered soon even to young, healthy Americans when millions around the world have yet to receive a single dose requires more than a news release."

"extensive data still shows that the vaccines remain remarkably effective against severe disease and hospitalization despite the spread of Delta,"

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