A Virus Progress Report: It’s no time to be complacent, but the summer surge has eased

WSJ editorial. Excerpts:

"Most states experienced flare-ups of varying degrees this summer as people gathered and travelled more. But outbreaks were worse in the South and West, for reasons that deserve more study but could include high rates of co-morbidities and more multigenerational households. Some U.S. nationals and migrant workers also brought the virus from Mexico.

But the U.S. seven-day rolling average of new cases has fallen by about 40% from its peak on July 25. Hospitalizations and deaths in hot spots peaked at about the same time in apparent contradiction to epidemiological models that have predicted two- to three-week lags between cases, hospitalizations and deaths.

Hospitalizations are down by 62% in Texas, 60% in Florida, 48% in Utah, 45% in California, and 44% in Louisiana from their peaks, which all occurred between July 21 and 24. Arizona’s hospitalizations began increasing in late May, a week or two earlier than in most states, and have fallen 78% since topping out July 12."

"hospitalizations have fallen twice as fast in Southern California counties that reopened in the spring as in Bay Area counties. Their prolonged lockdowns may merely have delayed infections."

"Florida and Texas recently began reporting fatalities by the date that they occurred, and their data show that deaths peaked around July 24 and had fallen about 60% by Aug. 15."

"the virus is killing fewer Americans than it did during the spring. Arizona, Florida and New York City have all recorded about the same number of cases per capita. New York City’s per capita death rate is about 5.6 times higher than Florida’s and four times higher than Arizona’s."

"Covid-19 patients in the South and West have been somewhat younger than in the Northeast this spring, but death rates have been lower across all age groups. States report data using different age bands, which can make direct comparisons difficult. But we calculate that the case fatality rate among adults under age 44 is about 75% lower in Arizona than in New York City. Among those over 75, the case fatality rate is about 16% in Florida, 19% in California and 36% in New York City."

"in-hospital death rates have also improved. One reason is better (and earlier) treatment including less intensive ventilation and therapies like remdesivir."