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Study Finds Menthol Ban Failed to Reduce Youth Smoking In Canada
"Survey data confirm that provincial menthol
bans significantly increased non-menthol cigarette smoking among youths,
resulting in no overall net change in youth smoking rates."
By Guy Bentley of Reason.
"A new study examining menthol cigarette bans in Canadian provinces shows prohibition failed to achieve its central objective; reducing youth smoking.
According to the study
published in February by the National Bureau of Economic Research
(NBER), “Survey data confirm that provincial menthol bans significantly
increased non-menthol cigarette smoking among youths, resulting in no
overall net change in youth smoking rates.”
As for adult smokers, the study discovered, “…provincial menthol bans
shifted smokers’ cigarette purchases away from grocery stores and gas
stations to First Nations reserves (where the menthol bans do not
bind).”
Conducted by professors Christopher Carpenter of Vanderbilt and Hai
V. Nguyen at Memorial University Newfoundland, the study is the first of
its kind to evaluate the real-world effects of menthol prohibition
comprehensively. The results are not promising for those who claim
menthol bans will produce enormous public health benefits.
“While we find clear evidence that the bans reduced menthol cigarette
sales and menthol cigarette use, we also find that the bans are
unlikely to be a panacea for reducing youth smoking rates because youths
substitute toward non-menthol cigarettes,” say the authors.
Examining several provinces that implemented menthol bans at
different times from 2015 to 2017, the authors reviewed sales data of
menthol and non-menthol cigarettes combined with survey data on youth
and adult smoking. Unsurprisingly, the paper found the bans proved
effective at eliminating the legal sale of menthol cigarettes. But
following the announcement of a menthol prohibition, consumers were
found to have stockpiled menthol cigarettes before enactment.
The study didn’t find evidence of substitution among adults but did
conclude there was evasion. Bans were associated with an increased
probability of adults reporting they’d bought cigarettes from a First
Nations reserve (where menthol bans do not apply) and significant
reductions in the likelihood that smokers bought their cigarettes from
gas stations or grocery stores.
The authors conclude that the “…overall effect on adult smoking is
somewhat blunted by the evasion of menthol bans toward First Nations
reserve purchases.”
The study failed to find any significant impact on smoking rates or quitting behaviors for either youths or adults.
The paper was subject to some important limitations, with the period
in question being relatively short. Survey respondents may also have
been more likely to report having quit smoking menthol cigarettes
because of desirability bias. The authors also didn’t take into account
the utility lost by individuals who prefer smoking menthol.
The political argument for menthol prohibition typically rests on a
few key assumptions — that menthol is more popular with kids than
regular cigarettes, is easier to start using, and harder to quit. If all
of these assumptions are true, the argument for prohibition goes,
banning menthol cigarettes would significantly reduce both youth and
adult smoking.
Prohibitionists often point to surveys of menthol smokers, suggesting
that if their product of choice were made illegal, they’d quit smoking.
But these ‘stated preferences’ are of little value. What matters is
their ‘revealed preferences’ — how they actually behave, rather than how
they say they would behave.
Suggestions that menthol prohibition may result in black market
activity or that young people could switch to other tobacco products are
often dismissed as scaremongering or unfounded in evidence. Similarly,
criminal justice concerns, voiced by groups such as the American Civil
Liberties Union (ACLU) are often brushed aside by prohibitionists
arguing the use and possession of menthol cigarettes won’t be
criminalized, only their manufacture and sale will. Yet, the same was
said for alcohol prohibition.
This research on Canada’s experience should give U.S. lawmakers
second thoughts before reaching for menthol bans as a solution to the
already historically low rates of youth smoking."
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