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New Kaiser Survey Suggests ObamaCare Is Killing Jobs
By Michael F. Cannon.
"Four percent of large employers are “reducing or planning to reduce the number of full-time employees that they intended to hire because of the cost of providing health benefits to them.”
ObamaCare will depress wages for high-skilled workers by 1.3 percent and for low-income workers by 3 percent.
Yahoo Finance’s Ethan Wolff-Mann, who may have the best name in journalism, writes
it’s not true that ObamaCare has caused employers to reduce workers’
hours because the new Kaiser Family Foundation/Health Research
Educational Trust survey found “a whopping
7% of employers with more than 50 employees actually gave part-timers
full-time jobs since Obamacare was officially launched in 2013. Only 2%
of employers cut full-timers to part-time.” Leaving aside the question
of whether 7 percent is a whopping figure, the figures Wolff-Mann cites
don’t necessarily support his claim.
ObamaCare’s employer mandate requires employers with more than 50
employees to provide a government-defined minimum amount of health
insurance to all full-time employees, defined as those working 30 or
more hours per week. Critics have predicted the mandate will therefore
cause some workers employers to shift from full-time to part-time
workers in order to avoid penalties.
Here’s how the authors of the report describe the findings Wolff-Mann cites regarding employers with more than 50 employees:
These firms were also asked about changes they planned to make or
had made in the past year in response to the employer responsibility
requirement. Two percent said they changed or planned to change the job
classifications of some employees from full-time to part-time so that
they would not be eligible for health benefits, while 7% said they
changed or planned to change job classifications of some employees from
part-time to full-time so that they would become eligible for health
benefits. Other actions included 4% reducing or planning to reduce the
number of full-time employees that they intended to hire because of the
cost of providing health benefits to them, 2% increasing or planning to
increase the waiting period before new employees become eligible for
benefits, 12% extending or planning to extend eligibility for health
benefits to workers who were not previously eligible, and 2% extending
or planning to extend eligibility for more comprehensive benefits to
employees previously eligible only for limited benefit plans.
A few observations.
First, the survey appears to have asked employers about changes they
made in the past year or plan to make in the future, not about changes
“since ObamaCare was officially launched in 2013.”
Second, there is wide variation in size among the employers in this
group, from 50 employees to tens of thousands. The survey does not
report how many employees work for the 2 percent of employers who
reported they have moved or plan to move workers from full-time to
part-time work, nor how many employees work for the 7 percent of
employers who have done or plan to do the reverse, nor what share of
these employers’ workforces the employers’ past and planned changes
would affect.
Third, since the the survey also asked about planned changes, we
don’t know how many of these reported shifts employers will fail to
implement.
Fourth, even if full-time jobs are growing relative to part-time
jobs, ObamaCare could still be inhibiting the growth of full-time work
by slowing the growth of full-time jobs. The survey offers some evidence
to suggest this might be the case.
In other words, these findings may instead be consistent with ObamaCare inhibiting full-time work.
In his book, Side Effects: The Economic Consequences of the Health Reform, University of Chicago economist Casey Mulligan predicts:
The ACA will have the nation working fewer hours, and working those
hours less productively, so that its nonhealth spending will be twice
diminished: once to pay for more health care and a second time because
the economy is smaller and less productive…
I predict that the ACA’s impacts—that is, the difference between the
economy with the ACA and a hypothetical and otherwise similar economy
without the ACA—will include about 3 percent less employment, 3 percent
fewer aggregate work hours, 2 percent less GDP, and 2 percent less labor
income…
[Some] 5 million workers plus roughly 5 million dependents will work part-time schedules as a consequence of the ACA…
Mulligan further predicts that even in firms that comply with the employer mandate, (Look for my review of Side Effects in the upcoming issue of Cato Journal.) I have elsewhere provided ample evidence to suggest that beneath the aggregate numbers, ObamaCare’s employer mandate is in fact causing a shift to part-time work."
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