See
The Uncounted Trillions in the Inequality Debate by Martin Feldstein, WSJ. Excerpts:
"The Federal Reserve recently estimated total household net worth in the U.S. to be about $80 trillion, including real estate and financial assets. And data from the Fed’s Survey of Consumer Finances imply
that the top 10% of households by net worth hold about 75%—or $60
trillion—of this total. The bottom 90% of households therefore have a
net worth of about $20 trillion.
These data seem to show a
country whose wealth is highly concentrated. But the true picture is
hardly as stark as critics of inequality claim, because it leaves out
the large amount of wealth held in the form of future retirement
benefits from Social Security and Medicare. Moreover, the public’s
traditional financial wealth is depressed because the current
entitlement programs lower people’s real incomes and deny them the
higher returns available through investment-based retirement savings
like IRAs or 401(k)s."
"Social Security “wealth”—the present actuarial value of the future
benefits that current workers and retirees are projected to receive—is
$59 trillion. Excluding the top 10% of households reduces the amount to
about $50 trillion."
"However, to qualify for those benefits, current workers must pay future payroll taxes with a present actuarial value of about $25 trillion.
So you have to subtract these taxes from the $50 trillion, leaving a
net Social Security “wealth” of $25 trillion for the bottom 90% of
households. Adding this to the $20 trillion of their conventionally
measured net worth, and these households have total wealth of $45
trillion.
Yet this figure leaves out the very large transfers
that retirees receive from Medicare and Medicaid. Government actuaries
don’t estimate the amount of “wealth” implied by these two programs."
"over the next decade total Social Security retiree benefits will be
$10.2 trillion, while the benefits for Medicare will be $9.0 trillion
and those for Medicaid will be $4.6 trillion"
"the benefits for these two government health programs exceed the amount Social Security will pay out to retirees in cash.
But
unlike Social Security, receiving government health benefits does not
depend on current workers continuing to pay taxes. This suggests that
the net “Medicare and Medicaid wealth” implied by current law is
probably about as large as these households’ “gross Social Security
wealth” of $50 trillion.
So what is the grand total? Add the $50
trillion for Medicare and Medicaid wealth to the $25 trillion for net
Social Security wealth and the $20 trillion in conventionally measured
net worth, and the lower 90% of households have more than $95 trillion
that should be reckoned as wealth. This is substantially more than the
$60 trillion in conventional net worth of the top 10%. And this $95
trillion doesn’t count the value of unemployment benefits, veterans
benefits"
"the implicit real rate of return on those payroll taxes will be less
than 3%. That is substantially less than the 5.5% real return earned
historically by contributions over a working life to an individual IRA
or 401(k) plan invested in a balanced combination of stocks and
high-quality bonds."
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