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Nine out of 10 transit projects worldwide come out over budget
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Why do big transit projects almost always go over budget? Excerpts:
"In fact, nine out of 10 transit projects worldwide come out over
budget, and the same ratio of transit builds tend to inflate future
ridership figures, according to multiple studies led by Bent Flyvbjerg,
an Oxford University academic who has written extensively for over a
decade about these issues.
“Transit in particular seems to have the largest overruns in the transportation sector,” Siemiatycki said.
Why?
He cited three contributing factors:
1) Transit builds are incredibly complex so there are lots of chances
for costs to go over, and random issues, like water or rock, crop up
during digs. Even weather in a country like Canada can affect a
project’s timeline and subsequently its budget.
2) “Optimism biases”: people are prone to believe they can do it
better than the last guy. So instead of transit commissions and city
councils and other governments learning from past underestimations and
over-budgeting these projects, they often mistakenly believe this time
they can control risk and it all will be different.
3) Politicians often low-ball transit costs to gain approval in their
jurisdiction and from higher levels of government. Once construction
starts, these projects are rarely cancelled and taxpayers are on the
hook for extra costs."
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