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Should We Credit Global Warming When Disasters Don’t Happen?
By Paul C. "Chip" Knappenberger of Cato.
"Every time there is some sort of weather disaster
somewhere, someone blames it on human-caused global warming. Maybe not
directly, but the implication is clear. “While we can’t link individual
events to global warming, the increase of this type of event is
consistent with our expectations, blah, blah…”
Most recently this came in testimony
from White House Science Adviser John Holdren before the Committee on
Science, Space, and Technology of the U.S. House of Representatives:
In general, one cannot say with confidence that an
individual extreme weather event (or weather-related event)—for example,
a heat wave, drought, flood, powerful storm, or large wildfire—was
caused by global climate change. Such events usually result from the
convergence of multiple factors, and these kinds of events occurred with
some frequency before the onset of the discernible, largely
human-caused changes in global climate in the late 20th and early 21st
centuries. But there is much evidence demonstrating that extreme weather
events of many kinds are beginning to be influenced—in magnitude or
frequency—by changes in climate.
Holdren then goes to list a bunch of types of extreme weather whose
characteristics have changed (remarkably, all becoming worse), adding
that:
There are good scientific explanations, moreover,
supported by measurements, of the mechanisms by which the overall
changes in climate resulting from the human-caused build-up of
heat-trapping substances are leading to the observed changes in
weather-related extremes.
Holdren’s implication is pretty clear—human-caused global warming is
leading to changes in extreme weather. And just for good measure, he
added this zinger:
[I]t is reasonable to say that most weather in most
places is being influenced in modest to significant ways by the changes
in climate that have occurred as a result of human activities.
If this were the case, then there is a lot of good news to be found
here, for by and large the weather is pretty good, with rare examples to
the contrary.
Take, for instance, what has been all abuzz this week in Washington, D.C.: how great the weather has been. The Washington Post’s Capital Weather Gang, which keeps close tabs on the pulse of D.C. weather, has commented repeatedly
on how remarkable and enjoyable it has been. According to Holdren’s
logic, we have global warming to thank, and yet I have not seen one news
story that links the pleasant weather to human-caused climate change.
Across the country in Tucson, Ariz. (where I reside), the news this
week has been dominated by the threat of the passage of the remnants of
Hurricane Odile, which were forecast to move into the region from out of
the Gulf of California. The predictions were for record-breaking
rainfall amounts with the potential for widespread damage from flooding.
The outlook stirred up memories of the passage of Tropical Storm Octave
in 1983, which resulted in over $500 million (in 1983 dollars) of
damage to the region. Thankfully, this did not come to pass. Instead,
the heavy rains associated with Odile passed well east of the city, over
much more sparsely populated country. Since apparently all weather is
influenced by anthropogenic global warming, we have it to thank for
averting what could have been a very costly and hugely disruptive
situation affecting upwards of a million people.
And speaking of hurricanes, the first major hurricane (category 3 or
greater) in almost two years formed in the Atlantic Ocean. But, in
encountering conditions arguably consistent with human-caused climate
change, Hurricane Edouard
quickly weakened and remained far out in the open Atlantic, steering
well clear of the U.S. mainland. Major disaster averted. It has now been
nearly nine years since the last major hurricane made landfall
in the United States, the longest such occurrence going back at least
to the year 1900. Thanks, global warming!
I could go on, because there are a lot more cases of non-extreme
weather than there are of extreme weather, and as many or more cases to
be made for weather catastrophes averted by conditions “consistent with global warming” than caused by it.
So if you want to play the all-weather-is-influenced-by-global-warming game, you are going to lose.
Best bet would be to stick with the science, which for most types of
extreme weather events and for most places indicates that a definitive
link between event characteristics and human-caused climate change has
not been established. Either talk about that situation or leave the
attribution issue alone."
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