American Health Depends on Exporting Covid Vaccines

Supply exceeds demand at home, and viral variants could eventually defeat the inoculations

By Ezekiel J. Emanuel and Joseph S. Nye. Dr. Emanuel is vice provost for global initiatives and a professor of health policy at the University of Pennsylvania and author of “Which Country has the World’s Best Health Care?” Mr. Nye is a professor of government emeritus at Harvard and served as assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, 1994-95. He is author of “Do Morals Matter?” Excerpts:

"The U.S. needs to begin exporting Pfizer, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson vaccines in the next few days. While the formal export ban expired at the end of March, the U.S. government still has contracts requiring delivery of tens of millions of doses. Washington also has leverage over vaccine exports because of a complex relationship between pharmaceutical companies and the government that includes the U.S. position on waiving patent rights on the vaccines at the World Trade Organization, Food and Drug Administration approval of the vaccines, and the Defense Production Act, which is integral to optimizing supply chains for vaccine production."

"The seven-day rolling average peaked on April 13 at 3.38 million daily doses and has dropped below 2.3 million. Pfizer, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson are producing about four million doses a day—a daily oversupply of about 1.5 million doses—and production is only increasing.

The U.S. gains nothing by hoarding these shots. While 44% of all Americans (including children, for whom the vaccine hasn’t yet been authorized) have received at least one dose of vaccine, countries that are experiencing serious outbreaks have much lower vaccination percentages: Canada 34%, Sweden 25%, Turkey 16%, Brazil 14%, Mexico 10%, India 9% and Peru 3%.

Stopping outbreaks elsewhere would also serve U.S. interests. Uncontrolled spread of the virus breeds variants, which can come to the U.S. Some, such as the Brazilian P1 variant, spread more rapidly. Others, such as the U.K. B117, appear to be more deadly. Now there are worries about the B1617 variant spreading rapidly in India. New variants may eventually evade vaccines and reset the clock on Covid-19. Until a booster is available for them, there would be more U.S. deaths, more strain on American hospitals, and perhaps even more ruinous lockdowns.

There is no tension between exporting vaccines and achieving herd immunity. We have surplus vaccines from Pfizer, Moderna and J&J. Today, more than 148 million Americans have received at least one dose, and more than 105 million are fully vaccinated. At the current, reduced pace, 70% of the population will be vaccinated by the start of August."