See
Free Market Perspective on Pope Francis's Forthcoming Speech to Congress by Mark Lewis of CEI. Excerpt:
"What matters is how much warming there will be and with what impacts.
Big, scary warming predictions come from climate models that increasingly overshoot observed warming.
The most comprehensive and accurate global temperature data come from satellite observing systems. In both the Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) and University of Alabama in Huntsville
(UAH) satellite records of the bulk atmosphere (troposphere), the
warming trend over the 36 year, 7 month record is 0.11°C per decade,
which translates into a 21st century warming of 1.2°C.
That is well within the bounds (0.3°C-1.7°C) of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC’s) lowest warming projection (RCP2.6),
which assumes a 70% reduction in cumulative greenhouse gas emissions
from 2010 to 2100 compared to baseline projections. In short, the
satellite records show about the same warming rate that climate
campaigners urge policymakers to achieve via draconian restrictions on carbon-based energy. Is this a great atmosphere, or what!
As to impacts, climate campaigners blame global warming for extreme weather events but there has been no trend in the strength or frequency of land-falling hurricanes globally since 1970.
In addition, as the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) acknowledges,
“there continues to be a lack of evidence and thus low confidence
regarding the sign of trend in the magnitude and/or frequency of floods
on a global scale,” and “there is low confidence in detection and
attribution of changes in drought over global land areas since the
mid-20th century.”
More importantly, despite relying on climate models that run too hot,
the IPCC tacitly rejects the climate trilogy of terror popularized by
Al Gore and other climate activists. Specifically, AR5 concludes
that in the 21st Century, Atlantic Ocean circulation collapse is “very
unlikely,” ice sheet collapse is “exceptionally unlikely,” and
catastrophic release of methane from melting permafrost is “very
unlikely.”
Here’s the big picture that is so often ignored in the global warming
debate. Affordable, plentiful, reliable fossil fuels make the climate safer and the environment more livable. For example, since the 1920s, roughly 90%
of all industrial carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions entered the atmosphere
and the world warmed by about 0.8°C. If fossil-fueled development were
“unsustainable,” we would expect skyrocketing deaths and death rates
related to drought, historically the most lethal form of extreme
weather. Instead, drought-related deaths and death rates plummeted by a
spectacular 99.8% and 99.9%, respectively.
What made the decisive difference are technologies (mechanized
agriculture, synthetic fertilizers, refrigeration, plastic packaging)
and capabilities (motorized transport, modern communications, emergency
relief programs) that depend on fossil fuels and the associated
wealth-creating activities.
Francis exhorts governments to care for the planet as part of their
duty to care for the poor. But the UN-sponsored climate treaty he
supports poses an existential threat to the poor. In the COP 21 climate
negotiations, the European Union
and major environmental groups call for a 60% reduction in global
greenhouse gas emissions below 2010 levels by 2050. What sacrifices
would the 60-by-50 target impose on developing countries, where the vast
majority of emissions growth is projected to occur?
Institute for 21st Century Energy scholar Steve Eule
finds that even if industrial countries like the United States
magically reduce their emissions to zero by 2050, the 60-by-50 target is
unattainable unless developing countries cut their current CO2
emissions by 35%. If, less unrealistically, industrial countries reduce
their emissions by 80%, developing countries would have to cut their
current CO2 emissions almost in half – by 48%.
Note, an estimated 1.2 billion people
in developing countries have no access to electricity and 2.3 billion
don’t have access to reliable power, which limits capital investment and
economic growth.
Nobody knows how developing countries can simultaneously eradicate
energy squalor while reducing their consumption of fossil fuels by
35%-48%. Contrary to Francis, a “bold agreement” at the Paris climate conference would most likely harm rather than help the poor."
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