Saturday, October 24, 2015

Does higher regulatory uncertainty constrain credit? Maybe

See Lending on Hold: Regulatory Uncertainty and Bank Lending Standards. Here is the abstract bu three members of the Fed board of governors:
"Does higher regulatory uncertainty constrain credit? This paper focuses on the recent regulation of "qualified mortgages" (QM) and on the effects of the related rule-making process on bank lending. In 2011, the Federal Reserve proposed a set of criteria that would give lenders the presumption of a borrower's ability-to-repay a mortgage -- and, thus, legal protection should a borrower sue. But the debt-to-income (DTI) ratio criterion -- the most binding in the final rule -- was not specified in the proposed rule. The absence of such a bright line created high regulatory uncertainty for banks between the proposed and the final rule. Using public comments submitted by banks in response to the rule proposal, we compute a measure of policy uncertainty at the bank level. We show that more uncertain banks issued fewer loans (and for smaller amounts) after the rule proposal. To control for general economic uncertainty, we instrument our measure by a bank's past legal costs. We confirm that banks that historically were sued more often cut lending more severely during the rule-making process. At a more aggregated level, counties that recorded a large number of mortgage lawsuits also experienced lower house price growth."

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