Why Scientists Love Chasing Bats

The threat to humans from animal viruses is small. The financial incentive to pretend otherwise is large

By Matt Ridley. Excerpts: 

"money [$10.5 billion] will go toward combating the threat of viruses newly caught from wildlife."

"A new report from the University of Leeds, prepared in part by former World Health Organization executives, finds that the claims made by the G-20 in support of this agenda either are unsupported by evidence, contradict their own cited sources, or fail to correct for improved detection of pathogens. Over the past decade the burden and risk of spillover has been relatively small and probably decreasing."

"If Sars-CoV-2 entered the human species through a laboratory accident, as the WHO, parts of the U.S. intelligence community and many scientists agree is possible, then it wouldn’t count as a natural spillover."

"The Leeds team examined eight reports commissioned by the G-20, the WHO and the World Bank that all claim spillovers of dangerous viruses from wildlife are increasing. A June 2021 report prepared by the WHO and World Bank predicts that “outbreaks of pathogens of pandemic potential are set to continue to increase in frequency for the foreseeable future.” A March 2022 G-20 report states that “even as we fight this pandemic, we must face the reality of a world at risk of more frequent pandemics.” A 2022 World Bank report talks of “an accelerating trend of pandemics.” A November 2023 WHO report claims that “pandemics of infectious diseases are occurring more often, and spreading faster and further than ever.”"

"New techniques have improved detection of viruses in recent decades."

"Even viruses that are new to the human species kill few people compared with the vast annual toll of malaria and tuberculosis. Ebola killed some 12,000 in the worst outbreak. MERS and SARS killed fewer than 900 each, and Zika fewer than 400. Avian flu kills fewer than 80 a year. These numbers are falling, not rising. A database on which the World Bank relied shows, according to a summary by the Leeds authors, a “major reduction in reported medium (>100 cases) and large (>1000 cases) outbreaks over the period 2009 to 2017.”"

"It is a misconception that population growth or prosperity leads humanity to encroach on wildlife habitats. The poorest people in Africa encroach on forest wildlife by hunting for bush meat; when they grow richer, they shop for chicken or pork instead."

"As for climate change, wildlife responds by moving, adapting or dying out, not by taking refuge in cities, as is sometimes claimed. Nor does the growth of cities necessarily represent a greater risk of transmission of new viruses. As the Leeds team put it, while “urbanization accelerates speed of inflection by placing a greater number of human bodies in proximity, it can also facilitate a more targeted response.”"

"“the world is getting better at detecting outbreaks, and identifying and distinguishing pathogens, whilst also improving capacity to address these challenges.”"