Help for the Heartland? The Employment and Electoral Effects of the Trump Tariffs in the United States

By David Autor, Anne Beck, David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson.

"We study the economic and political consequences of the 2018-2019 trade war between the United States, China and other US trade partners at the detailed geographic level, exploiting measures of local exposure to US import tariffs, foreign retaliatory tariffs, and US compensation programs. The trade-war has not to date provided economic help to the US heartland: import tariffs on foreign goods neither raised nor lowered US employment in newly-protected sectors; retaliatory tariffs had clear negative employment impacts, primarily in agriculture; and these harms were only partly mitigated by compensatory US agricultural subsidies. Consistent with expressive views of politics, the tariff war appears nevertheless to have been a political success for the governing Republican party. Residents of regions more exposed to import tariffs became less likely to identify as Democrats, more likely to vote to reelect Donald Trump in 2020, and more likely to elect Republicans to Congress. Foreign retaliatory tariffs only modestly weakened that support."

Occupational licensing can detour immigrant physicians’ career paths

Analysis of a small dataset shows only one in three immigrant physicians in the United States is on track to practice medicine

Tyler Boesch and Ryan Nunn of The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Excerpts:

"The United States has for many years experienced substantial shortages of health care professionals that result in reduced patient access and higher health care costs. In this context, the health care system and the broader economy cannot afford to exclude qualified individuals from practice. Unfortunately, for many immigrant physicians (i.e., those who worked as physicians before immigrating) in the United States, this is exactly what has occurred. According to our analysis of data on approximately 300 physicians who immigrated to the United States between 2004 and 2022, only one in three who are employed report working as a medical resident or physician.

Occupational licensing is a key part of this story. Despite years of experience in their professions, immigrant physicians often struggle to meet the requirements of U.S. licensure, including the need to obtain residency training in the United States. Indeed, in prior research we found that licensing disproportionately reduces employment of foreign-born workers in the licensed sector."

"Physicians who immigrate to the United States tend to find employment of some kind. About 85 percent of the Upwardly Global physician clients in the dataset report being employed. However, only 34 percent of those who are employed report working as a medical resident or a physician.²

Many of those who were originally physicians find non-physician health care jobs"

"One common occupation is medical assistant, where individuals complete various administrative and clinical tasks in a health care setting. Upwardly Global staff note that while this occupation does not fully utilize their medical training, many clients feel that medical assistant roles offer important networking opportunities with medical professionals and exposure to the American health care system. But the median annual salary among Upwardly Global clients who are former physicians working as medical assistants is $41,600 in 2023 dollars. While this figure only pertains to the first year of employment and is likely low relative to subsequent earnings, it is just a fraction of typical starting salaries for physicians in the United States."

"Another common occupation is medical researcher, either in a health care or university setting. In this role, former physicians are able to use their medical expertise while avoiding the hurdles associated with relicensure. The median annual salary of Upwardly Global clients who are former physicians working as medical researchers is $59,000 in 2023 dollars—still far below that of practicing doctors, but again with the caveat noted above."

"In assessing why so many former physicians are not currently on track to practice medicine, one important consideration is the educational credentials immigrants possess. In the United States, a doctor of medicine (M.D.) or a doctor of osteopathic medicine (D.O.) are the most common degrees held by those practicing as licensed physicians. As shown in Figure 3, of the former physicians in our sample who are not on track for relicensure, 77 percent hold M.D.s: lack of an M.D. does not appear to be the barrier for most former physicians.³ Indeed, in our data sample 69 percent of M.D. holders are not currently practicing or on track to becoming physicians. 

Physician licensure is complicated. In addition to medical degrees, it typically requires exams, field-specific medical residencies, financial resources, and continuing medical education. (See Scheffler [2019] for a helpful discussion of these requirements as they apply to foreign-trained physicians.) Moreover, licensure requirements—for physicians or for most professionals in other fields—are not uniform across countries. When combined with the language barriers some experience, this makes for a daunting situation for immigrants who were formerly physicians."

"23 percent of immigrant physicians who are not on track to practice medicine in the United States are currently working as medical assistants. While these individuals may eventually still become relicensed, it seems likely that more would have done so had it been straightforward for them to translate their prior training into U.S. licensure."

"Representatives from Upwardly Global told us that many of its clients are deterred by the unavailability of medical residency slots and the required time, cost, and complexity of the licensure process. Smoothing this process and making residencies easier to obtain would almost certainly increase the number of immigrants who contribute their talents as practicing physicians."

Dr. Fauci and the ‘Sort of Just Appeared’ Defense

The phrase is the complete opposite of taking responsibility for Covid policies

Letter to The WSJ. 

"Dr. Anthony Fauci’s closed-door testimony reveals the lack of hard evidence behind his arbitrary policies and practices during the pandemic (“Anthony Fauci Fesses Up,” Review & Outlook, Jan. 12). It is a striking example of the sluggish and phlegmatic bureaucracies at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the National Institutes of Health.

These institutions could have assembled rapid pilot or large research projects to test the underlying premises of mask mandates, 6-foot social distancing, school closings, and the safety of indoor and outdoor assemblies and public transportation. Instead, policies were borrowed from prevailing wisdom and precedent or were created without hard evidence. These government agencies need rapid-response mechanisms to assemble research teams when confronted with unprecedented, emerging public-health disasters.

Prof. Bertha K Madras

Harvard Medical School

Belmont, Mass."

Why In-N-Out Burger Is Out of Oakland

The city cuts back on police to pay for public-worker pensions. Result: surging crime

WSJ editorial. 

"California’s famous In-N-Out Burger chain announced Sunday that it is closing its restaurant in Oakland, blaming rising crime. You might also say it is the victim of a progressive backlash to law enforcement and soaring government-worker pension costs that have squeezed spending on public safety.

In-N-Out’s store by the Oakland airport drew hordes of travelers, but its packed parking lot and long drive-through line were frequently targeted by thieves. “This location remains a busy and profitable one for the company, but our top priority must be the safety and well-being of our Customers and Associates,” said chief operating officer Denny Warnick.

He added: “Despite taking repeated steps to create safer conditions, our Customers and Associates are regularly victimized by car break-ins, property damage, theft, and armed robberies.” This is what happens when cities cut back on policing.

Oakland’s progressive City Council in 2021 bowed to antipolice activists by limiting the number of police academies for training new officers and freezing 911 surge units, all while boosting funding for putative violence prevention “alternatives.” Meantime, as federal pandemic largesse shrank, spending on government-worker benefits ballooned.

Between 2019 and 2023, Oakland’s spending on public-worker retirement benefits rose 42% ($73 million) and 34% ($49 million) for fringe benefits. Last year Oakland spent more on government worker benefits than it collected in property and sales tax. To close a $360 million budget deficit, the city cut back on law enforcement even more.

The unsurprising result: Surging crime. Robberies last year were up 22% over the three-year average. Auto burglaries (23%), carjackings (15%) and motor vehicle theft (29%) also spiked. Roughly one of every 30 Oakland residents had a car stolen last year. Many In-N-Out patrons and workers found their car windows smashed, if they were lucky enough to avoid being held up at gun-point.

Businesses in California pay exorbitant taxes, which are supposed to provide for public safety and other essential government services. But increasingly businesses are finding they are on their own as cities slash law enforcement. Is it any wonder In-N-Out is now intent on growing outside of California in states such as Texas and Tennessee?"

‘Infectious Generosity’ Review: Giving Until It Feels Good

We should all give away more money than we do and thus make the world a better place—say, by funding the effort to improve meat substitutes

By Meghan Cox Gurdon. Excerpt:

"The inclusion of meat substitutes on Mr. Anderson’s list of grandiose possibilities points to the fundamental silliness of “Infectious Generosity.” Meat substitutes, like heart-warming news operations, have not managed to entice the public. If people really wanted synthetic meat, they’d buy it; if they wanted media that feature only good news, they’d pay for them.

There are more serious problems with the premise of Mr. Anderson’s ecstatic vision. People differ on what is desirable, and desires conflict. Davos Man’s meatless cause is a cattle rancher’s anathema. A cash handout designed to uplift may just as easily corrupt. Do-gooders often fail to take into account the law of unintended consequences. For instance, the mosquito nets blanketing Africa to fight malaria are also causing ecological damage, because people are using them for fishing. Charlatans, too, are always ready to take advantage of donors with soft hearts and deep pockets.

Mr. Anderson doesn’t like to dwell on the downsides of generosity. He moves swiftly past such complications as the chicanery of Sam Bankman-Fried, who, it should be remembered, pulled off his swindles under the cloak of “effective altruism.”

One—or “we,” as Mr. Anderson says too often—can’t fault the author for feeling that he has discovered the key to all. It is charming to imagine outbreaks of generosity going viral and infecting mankind with benignity. It is true that the internet spreads beauty as well as ugliness. And he’s right that if ever there were a time to try to drag online culture out of the slough, it is now: Artificial intelligence is, and forevermore will be, scraping the internet for its algorithmic understanding of humanity. Thus it seems wise for humanity to be mindful of what the internet says about it.

But there is a great deal of dreamy thinking here, much wearing of rose-tinted glasses, and many beggars riding on horses made of wishes. Mr. Anderson is to be commended for promulgating the virtue of generosity, though he seems unaware that human beings have struggled for millennia with the tension between the self and the other, between giving and receiving, between impulsivity and considered action.

To the acerbic novelist Henry James is attributed an uncharacteristically whimsical maxim that fits with the strength and failings of “Infectious Generosity.” James said: “Three things in human life are important: The first is to be kind. The second is to be kind. And the third is to be kind.” It feels cynical to say, yes, well, that’s all very good, but people are complicated.

Mrs. Gurdon, a Journal contributor, is the author of “The Enchanted Hour: The Miraculous Power of Reading Aloud in the Age of Distraction.”"

The Multibillion-Dollar Clean Energy Bet Gone Wrong

Offshore wind turbines are proving too risky for many utilities

By David Uberti of The WSJ. Excerpts:

"the problems started mounting. American workers’ wages soared after the pandemic, while Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent commodity prices skyrocketing. The Federal Reserve’s rate increases drove up the cost of borrowing for billion-dollar developments. A global backlog of wind farm plans created a shortage of the vessels needed to haul turbines and their foundations from ports to job sites in the ocean"

"the cost has spiraled out of control"

"Eversource expects to write down up to $1.6 billion from the projects in the fourth quarter."

"Any buyer will have to navigate a web of existing contracts approved by state regulators and supplier deals for everything from turbine parts to ships."

"Analysts say the projects have suffered more than most because of the bad timing of power-purchase agreements just before inflation and supply-chain chaos struck. Those contracts, approved by regulators, exposed developers to the risk of cost overruns."

A drugmaker refuses to “negotiate” a drug’s price must pay an excise tax that escalates to 1,900% of the drug’s daily revenue

See Bernie Sanders Wants a Pharma CEO Show Trial: He wants to punish the executives of companies that have sued to block drug price controls from The WSJ. Excerpt:

"The two drug makers argue in their lawsuits that the IRA exacts an uncompensated taking of their property. If a drugmaker refuses to sign an “agreement” to “negotiate” a drug’s price—or rejects what the government deems a “maximum fair price”—it must pay an excise tax that escalates to 1,900% of the drug’s daily revenue. This is effectively extortion.

Their lawsuits also contend that the IRA violates their speech rights by compelling them to endorse the false narrative that they are participating in a “negotiation” that results in a “fair” price. Lower courts are expected to rule on the lawsuits in the coming months, and appeals could reach the Supreme Court. Is Mr. Sanders afraid the government will lose?

His plan to subpoena the CEOs is another display of unconstitutional government coercion, which the J&J letter argues would “exceed Congress’s authority under applicable Supreme Court precedent.” In Watkins v. U.S. (1957), the Court held that congressional investigations conducted solely “to ‘punish’ those investigated are indefensible.”

It’s also rich that Mr. Sanders is trying to compel the CEOs’ public testimony while the Biden Administration conducts its sham negotiations behind closed doors. The Health and Human Services Department has threatened drug makers with antitrust litigation if they discuss their negotiations. As the left likes to say, democracy dies in darkness."

Put the Harms of Marijuana in Perspective

Patients are finding relief from such difficult-to-treat conditions as chronic pain, anxiety, insomnia, nausea and pelvic pain

Letter to The WSJ.

"While reading Allysia Finley’s column “Marijuana Is More Dangerous Than Biden’s HHS Lets On” (Life Science, Jan. 22), I felt as if I were reading something out of the Nixon White House, at the dawn of the war on drugs, in the 1970s. It is true that cannabis has its harms. As a cannabis clinician, I avoid recommending cannabis for teen users, pregnant or breast-feeding patients and patients with a history of psychosis. I counsel patients to avoid smoking it in favor of edibles, topicals or tinctures, and to “start low and to go slow” with the dosage.

The results have been encouraging. Patients are finding relief from such difficult-to-treat conditions as chronic pain, anxiety, insomnia, nausea and pelvic pain. Often, the medicinal cannabis is less toxic than the conventional pharmaceuticals that the patient would have used otherwise. No wonder around 90% of Americans support legal access to medical marijuana. This support spans both political parties.

It is also important to note that the prohibition of cannabis has been an absolute disaster. There have been more than 20 million arrests for nonviolent cannabis possession over the past 50 years, disproportionately of Americans with dark skin. These arrests interfere with a person’s education, housing and employment. It is impossible to argue that the harms of using cannabis, especially among nonvulnerable individuals, has been more damaging than the criminalization of cannabis.

Peter Grinspoon, M.D.

Harvard Medical School

Auburndale, Mass."

A Century After Lenin’s Death, His Evil Legacy Lives On

Believing that the class struggle justified any means, he glorified murder as a moral obligation

By David Satter. Mr. Satter is author of “Age of Delirium: the Decline and Fall of the Soviet Union.” Excerpts:

"For Lenin, as he said in his speech to the Komsomol on Oct. 2, 1920, morality was entirely subordinated to the class struggle. An action was right not in light of “extrahuman concepts” but only if it destroyed the old society and helped to build a new communist society."

"Lenin’s theory also inspired modern terrorism and contributes to the weakness that leads many in the West to condone ideological crimes."

"In February 1917, Lenin’s party, the Bolsheviks, had 24,000 members. It was able to triumph in a country of more than 100 million because it was a machine of concentrated power that accepted murder and glorified it as a moral obligation. Isaac Steinberg, the non-Bolshevik justice minister in the first revolutionary government, objected to summary executions. He sarcastically asked Lenin: “Why bother with a Commissariat of Justice? Let’s call it the ‘Commissariat for Social Extermination.’” Lenin’s face lit up, and he said: “That’s exactly what it should be, but we can’t say that.”"

"In a 2008 speech, Vladimir Putin said that maintaining Russia’s place as a “mighty nation” calls for “enormous sacrifices and privations on the part of our people.” In other words, his ambition is the same as Lenin’s: for Russians to suffer indefinitely for the state."

"When the Soviet Union fell, Russia dismantled the socialist economy but didn’t restore the moral framework Lenin destroyed. The result was the rise of a criminal state no less dangerous than its predecessor"

"One of Lenin’s last writings was a set of recommendations for deceiving “deaf-mutes,” his term for Western capitalists who were ready to ignore Soviet crimes in their pursuit of profit. His plan was to promote the fiction of a legitimate government in the Soviet Union separate from the Communist Party and establish relations with as many countries as possible to create a false impression of normality."

Oxfam’s Love Affair With ‘Inequality’

Its zero-sum view obscures the ways in which life for the poor has improved in the past 20 years. 

By Johan Norberg and Gonzalo Schwarz. Excerpts:

"According to Oxfam’s main source, the UBS/Credit Suisse Global Wealth Report, annual shifts in inequality have roughly canceled out, returning global wealth inequality to the same level as when the pandemic began. Most inequality indicators are at their lowest levels in a century.

Oxfam’s work has other flaws. By focusing only on the five richest men, it ignores the 24 billionaires who fell off Forbes’s famous list after losing a combined $43 billion between 2022 and 2023. In addition, the report fails to mention that the total number of dollar millionaires fell by 3.5 million last year, without even taking inflation into account. Absurdly, as Max Ghenis of PolicyEngine has pointed out, Oxfam calculates the rise in wealth of the five superrich from March 18, 2020, the low point of the Covid crash, while the group measures the decline for the five billion poor from 2019, before the downturn. 

You wouldn’t learn it from Oxfam, but the global Gini coefficient measuring inequality has fallen from 92 to 88 since 2000. The top 1% saw their share of global income cut from 49% to 44.5%."

"the world’s poorest five billion have become significantly richer."

"the world’s poorest five billion have become significantly richer."

"Oxfam report: Global poverty is now at its lowest level ever recorded—8.6%, down from 29% in 2000."

"they look at wealth and poverty as a zero-sum story of inequality rather than the positive story of upward social mobility."

J.B. Pritzker Picks Wasteful Education in Illinois

The Invest in Kids scholarship cost about $6,000, whereas the state spends about $18,000 per public-school pupil.

Letter to The WSJ.

"The final sentence in your editorial “J.B. Pritzker vs. Catholic Schools” (Jan. 20) appropriately sums up the death of Illinois’s Invest in Kids scholarship program: “It’s a moral and political disgrace.” Here are a few more postmortem thoughts that Illinois voters should remember.

Gov. Pritzker sent his children to Francis Parker and the Latin School in Chicago. Both currently charge tuition and fees of more than $40,000 a year. But Mr. Pritzker was unwilling to try to save Invest in Kids, clearly telling lower-income parents that failing public schools are good enough for their kids.

The average Invest in Kids scholarship cost Illinois about $6,000, whereas Illinois spends about $18,000 per public-school pupil. This means Illinois will be spending more to provide inferior education if parents of more than 33% of the current Invest in Kids scholarship recipients can no longer afford private schools. This is a plausible lose-lose outcome given the evidence cited in the editorial about Catholic school closures in the Chicago Archdiocese.

God save us from the scions of wealthy families like the Pritzkers who have decided to devote themselves to public service. We would be better off if they would simply be part of the idle rich and stop helping the rest of us.

Prof. James E. Ciecka

DePaul University

Chicago"

Review of The Capitalist Manifesto: Why the Global Free Market Will Save the World by Johan Norberg

From Journal of Economic Literature. Click here to go to the Amazon page.