See The unintended effects of minimum wage increases on crime by Zachary S. Fone, Joseph J. Sabia and Resul Cesur. Excerpts:
"Highlights
Improved
local labor market opportunities for low-skilled individuals may reduce
criminal behavior by increasing its opportunity cost.
This
study explores the impact of one of the most prominent low-wage labor
policies in the United States — the minimum wage — on teenage and young
adult arrests.
Using
data from the 1998–2016 Uniform Crime Reports and a
difference-in-differences approach, we find that a 1 percent increase in
the minimum wage is associated with a 0.2 percent increase in property
crime arrests among 16-to-24-year-olds, an effect driven by
larceny-related arrests.
Supplemental
analyses of “affected workers” in the National Longitudinal Survey of
Youth 1997 show that increases in the minimum wage increase property
crime for low-wage workers.
Minimum wage-induced job loss may be a mechanism to explain increases in larceny arrests.
A
$15 Federal minimum wage, proposed as part of the Raise the Wage Act of
2021, could generate median criminal externality costs of approximately
$766 million."
"Abstract
The
availability of higher-paying jobs for low-skilled individuals has been
documented to reduce crime. This study explores the impact of one of
the most prominent labor policies designed to provide higher wages for
low-skilled workers — the minimum wage — on teenage and young adult
arrests. Using data from the 1998–2016 Uniform Crime Reports and a
difference-in-differences approach, we find that a 1 percent increase in
the minimum wage is associated with a 0.2 to 0.3 percent increase in
property crime arrests among 16-to-24-year-olds, an effect driven by an
increase in larceny-related arrests. The magnitudes of our estimated
elasticities suggest that a $15 Federal minimum wage, proposed as part
of the Raise the Wage Act, could generate approximately 309,000
additional larcenies. Job loss emerges as an important mechanism to
explain our findings, and supplemental analyses of affected workers in
the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 show that this effect is
concentrated among workers bound by minimum wage increases. Finally, we
find no evidence that minimum wage hikes impact violent crime arrests."
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