Tuesday, December 10, 2019
Arctic Temperature Was 7°C Warmer Than Today 10,000 Years Ago
FromThe Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF).
Abstract: Arctic climate is uniquely sensitive to
on‐going warming. The feedbacks that drive this amplified response
remain insufficiently quantified and misrepresented in model scenarios
of future warming. Comparison with paleotemperature reconstructions from
past warm intervals can close this gap. The Early Holocene (11.7‐8.2 ka
BP) is an important target because Arctic temperatures were warmer than
today. This study presents centennially resolved summer temperature
reconstructions from three Svalbard lakes. We show that Early Holocene
temperatures fluctuated between the coldest and warmest extremes of the
past 12 ka, exceeding the range of instrumental observations and future
projections. Peak warmth occurred ~10 ka BP, with temperatures 7°C
warmer than today due to high radiative forcing and intensified inflow
of warm Atlantic waters. Between 9.5‐8 ka BP, temperatures dropped in
response to freshwater fluxes from melting ice. Facing similar
mechanisms, our findings may provide insight into the near‐future
response of Arctic climate.
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