The Truth About Deficits and the Debt

This from Veronique de Rugy at Reason. Highlights and excerpts:

"Myth 1: Debt and deficits are a disease that can only be cured by raising taxes.

Fact 1: Debt and deficits are only a symptom. The disease is overspending. And tax increases are no cure. Besides, even if we could balance the budget by raising taxes it wouldn’t stay balanced so long as programs like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid remain unreformed.

... in the past, tax revenues have averaged 15.9 percent of GDP. During recent years, revenue collection has slightly increased, averaging 18.5 percent of GDP during the 1990s, and averaging 17.5 percent of GDP during the first decade of the new millennium. Notably, the federal government has never been able to collect 21 percent of GDP in tax revenues. It defies reality to think that it will be able to do so now. That’s why the CBO estimates that revenues will remain fixed at 19.3 percent of GDP into the future.

Yet the CBO anticipates that from 2012 through 2021, the federal government will spend, on average, 23.3 percent of GDP—a higher level of spending as a percentage of GDP than the government has ever been able to collect.

Myth 2: There is no relationship between high interest rates and deficits. And even if there was, interest rates remain at all-time lows.
Fact 2: That may have been true once, but the data now shows that investors anticipate an increase in both interest rates and deficits.

George Mason University economist Arnold Kling argues that economists haven’t seen a correlation between budget deficits and interest rates because foreign investment in U.S. assets has increased over the years, dulling the impact of fiscal policy. The real question is what happens if that investment slows or stops.

Moreover, deficits have reached a level that economists haven’t really studied before.

Myth 3: Debt and deficits may be a problem, but we don’t have to fix it now.

Fact 3: Debt and deficits are having an immediate negative impact on the economy.

Even in the absence of a crisis, the effects of persistent deficits remain substantial. As the government borrows, some people delay spending and investment in anticipation of future tax increases. Others will not invest in the economy or start new businesses as government borrowing consumes a greater portion of the available capital. All of this hurts the economy. Economists use the term “crowding out” to refer to this contraction in economic activity that follows from deficit-financed spending."