Will the $100,000 Visa Fee Help U.S. Workers? Economists Aren’t So Sure

Changes to the H-1B system could benefit some U.S. workers. But economists say losing foreign talent could weaken the overall job market—and shift production overseas

By Justin Lahart. Excerpts:

"“H-1B visas cause innovation, they cause entrepreneurship, they cause more R&D investment,” said George Mason University economist Michael Clemens. “They cause higher productivity in the whole U.S. economy, which generates job opportunities and higher earnings for native workers across the skill spectrum.” 

Clemens and other economists cite a body of research suggesting that the program has benefited U.S. workers, and the U.S. economy, far more than it has hurt."

"A 2015 paper by economists Giovanni Peri, Kevin Shih and Chad Sparber found influxes of foreign-born workers boosted wages for native-born workers. And a 2023 paper by economist Britta Glennon found that when H-1B immigration is restricted, U.S. multinationals tend to shift work to other countries."

"The new fee could do lasting damage, according to Rutgers University economist Jennifer Hunt.

“This misguided measure could shut down the H-1B program entirely,” she said. “And if that happens, it’ll have a very detrimental effect on the economy as a whole.” Overall, Hunt said H-1B workers don’t substitute for U.S. workers, but complement them instead, helping them do their jobs and making them more productive."

"“When we consider the broader picture, U.S.-born workers as a whole experience net benefits,” [economist Gaurav] Khanna said"